National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

[Innoko]

Mall Dini 25-1 with W.Hills still

Don't believe everything you see on Oddschecker....

[charlie]

I like Mall Dini for this. Looked out of it in the Kim Muir but ran on well. Same could be said for his run over 29f at Fairyhouse. I think the further the better

[Faugheen_Machine]

Had a read through this thread last night and I noticed Kev pulled out a horse of Neil Mullholland, Impulsive Star, and I've round to thinking he might be onto something.
Owned by Waley-Cohen he's pretty much guaranteed to run here and of course will have his son on board who is one of the best amateurs around.

Some key trends for this:

Must have had at least 3 chase runs
Previous Cheltenham experience crucial
Securing one of the top pilots equally crucial
Focus on 7yo and 8yo (Minella Rocco won at 6 but he since went close in a Gold Cup so exceptionally talented)

All of these strengthen the case for Impulsive Star who was backed into fav in last years Pertemps where he was simply taken off his feet by the pace, that won't happen here.
The horse has been crying out for extreme test of stamina from an early age, he got within 8l of Wholestone in his novice hurdle days typically staying on and closest at the line, this race has to suit.
50/1 NRNB looks to be exceptional value.

Of course there are trends that that don't fit:

Hasn't competed in G1/G2 chase
Hasn't yet won a chase
Isn't owned by JP

But 50/1....

At 50/1, I'm in. SWC will ride so I'd imagine he'd certain to line up here. It helps that Presenting Percy may not line up here either.

1pt ew Impulsive Star 50/1

[Istabraq]

How strong a bet do you think this is? Thinking of putting a few points on without doing any of my own research as you have made a very good sounding case.

I don't work on a point basis Vautour but I've had what I would consider to be a small to regulation bet, primarily because I need to protect the account, if you were to randomly log in and have £250 ew on a 50/1 shot I think your account would have a big red flag against it.
I'll be looking to have some more before tapes up....

[TheEagleHasLanded]

Im sold on it Ista, a little £10 ew I think

[Morley Street]

Does anyone know whether this is the target for Jury Duty? I’ve heard that the long term plan is the Irish National and this race is usually a good pointer for that. Last year’s Pertemps form with Percy reads well in the context of this race, as does this year’s novice chase form. 14/1 without the NR concession looks more than fair?

[Kevloaf]

I'm glad people are seeing what I'd seen in Impulsive Star... the odd thing is his price has got BIGGER since I thought it was a good bet at 33/1... can't really get my head around why, although his last run wasn't great I don't think it was worth the push out to 50/1!

I'm at 1.5 pts e/w on him though... as I still think jono's Elegant Escape is a more likely winner...

[Scooby91]

I'm glad people are seeing what I'd seen in Impulsive Star... the odd thing is his price has got BIGGER since I thought it was a good bet at 33/1... can't really get my head around why, although his last run wasn't great I don't think it was worth the push out to 50/1!

I'm at 1.5 pts e/w on him though... as I still think jono's Elegant Escape is a more likely winner...

Any news on elegant escape? He's got every right to go for the rsa but I wouldn't like to 2nd guess tizzard

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm glad people are seeing what I'd seen in Impulsive Star... the odd thing is his price has got BIGGER since I thought it was a good bet at 33/1... can't really get my head around why, although his last run wasn't great I don't think it was worth the push out to 50/1!

I'm at 1.5 pts e/w on him though... as I still think jono's Elegant Escape is a more likely winner...

I'm not sure if you touched on it in your post Kev but there a plenty of similarities between Impulsive Star and Missed Approach (who finished 2nd in the 4 miler at 50/1).

[Kevloaf]

Any news on elegant escape? He's got every right to go for the rsa but I wouldn't like to 2nd guess tizzard

Not that I've seen specifically recently. Can't be confident despite it looking blindingly obvious EE should go here!

My position in this race:

Elegant Escape - 50/1 - 0.5 pts e/w
Impulsive Star - 50/1 - 0.75 pts e/w & 33/1 0.75 pts e/w
Fagan - 25/1 - 2 pts win
Presenting Percy - 33/1 0.5 pts e/w

Cashed out all the PP bets I had other than the one above.

[Robbante]

Any news on elegant escape? He's got every right to go for the rsa but I wouldn't like to 2nd guess tizzard

In my opinion Elegant Escape should go for this race and Sizing Tennessee the Ultima, wouldn’t give either a chance in the RSA but at least one will line up there

[Scooby91]

Not that I've seen specifically recently. Can't be confident despite it looking blindingly obvious EE should go here!

My position in this race:

Elegant Escape - 50/1 - 0.5 pts e/w
Impulsive Star - 50/1 - 0.75 pts e/w & 33/1 0.75 pts e/w
Fagan - 25/1 - 2 pts win
Presenting Percy - 33/1 0.5 pts e/w

Cashed out all the PP bets I had other than the one above.

Only 1 bet.
Presenting percy 33/1. Won't be cashing that out any time soon but under the current plan would be a NR . Will Probably wait until nearer the time and see what codd and o Connor are on.

[archie]

Recent results suggest that Impulsive Star has about a stone to find to be competitive in this but 50/1 is a very fair price as long as NRNB.

Absolutely a race to be backing the jockey.

[Kevloaf]

Recent results suggest that Impulsive Star has about a stone to find to be competitive in this but 50/1 is a very fair price as long as NRNB.

Absolutely a race to be backing the jockey.

We're actually getting close to some news on that.... wasn't it about mid-Feb last year?
Impulsive Star has the benefit of a Gold Cup winning jockey on his back at least

[Istabraq]

Recent results suggest that Impulsive Star has about a stone to find to be competitive in this but 50/1 is a very fair price as long as NRNB.

This is such a unique race I'm not sure it's possible to apply usual rating/handicapping methodology.
None of these will have traveled a yard over 3m yet this race requires them to go a mile further, so this is the one race opinion (about whether a horse has the required level of stamina) may count for more than numbers.
As always, just my take....