Originally posted by Kevloaf
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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018
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Elegant Escape now has a rating of 150.
Elegant Escape tipped up by Andy Holding too.... beating Black Corton who was on a 7 timer, well clear of Wait For Me and Sir Ivan and the time figure on par with Ladbroke Trophy (final circuit 3 seconds quicker)...
Looks like he'll be going for the Kauto Star, which might mean RSA with a big run there though.Last edited by Kevloaf; 5 December 2017, 05:31 PM.
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Just to give some context to the rating of winners that jono highlighted having such a great record in...
2017
Edwulf 152 PU
(but would have placed)
Beware The Bear 148 7th
Next up at 145
Finished 1, 2, 9
2016
Vicente 153 5th
(Native River 149 2nd)
2015
Causes of Causes 145 1st
2014
Shotgun Paddy 151 2nd
2013
Back in Focus 150 1st
(Tofino bay 149 2nd)
2012
Teaforthree 146 1st
That's PU-5-1-2-1-1
Although Presenting Percy would be well clear.
All the above is from jono
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostAre you covering him in the RSA Kev?
I also have the same stake 33/1 for this.
Surprised he is so short at 8s but considering having quite a big bet at either 12/1 for this OR 7s any race ... what are you thinking?
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Elegant Escape
20-1 Elegant Escape looks perfect for National Hunt Chase
BY TOM PARK 12:59PM 7 DEC 2017
To celebrate the countdown to Christmas, the Racing Post is giving away one piece of paid content away free each day. Here Tom Park serves up his latest Ante-Post Focus fancy
Elegant Escape
National Hunt Chase, Cheltenham March 13
1pt win at 20-1 generally
This year's Ladbrokes Trophy was a race to savour as Total Recall wore down the gutsy Whisper after a superb ride from Paul Townend, earning a Gold Cup quote in the process.
As good a performance as it was, Willie Mullins' improving eight-year-old is going to have to improve another 10lb to even be in with a chance in the Gold Cup. Arguably it was Whisper who emerged as the more likely contender after giving 14lb to the winner.
There is certainly some each-way value in the 25-1 available with Coral about Whisper in the Gold Cup, but the one who emerged from the Ladbrokes Trophy with the most credit was Might Bite. He has twice beaten Whisper and beat Alpha Des Obeaux, who was second to Total Recall in the Munster National, out of sight in last season's RSA.
Having already put up Nicky Henderson's star to win the King George and Gold Cup at 14-1 there is no need to play again and, after Thistlecrack's laboured return, he looks the one to beat at Kempton.
The Ladbrokes Trophy was not the only big race at the weekend, and Buveur D'Air, Apple's Jade and Mengli Khan all laid down their festival credentials with Grade 1 victories, but the horse who has perhaps gone under the radar is Elegant Escape, who got off the mark over fences in the Grade 2 novice chase at Newbury on Saturday.
Colin Tizzard's five-year-old has improved no end for the switch to fences and has proved a superb jumper in his three starts.
After beating Cheltenham winner Black Corton by three-quarters of a length in a race won by stablemates Thistlecrack and Native River in the last two seasons, he earned quotes for the RSA and National Hunt Chase.
He is clearly going in the right direction but might lack the class for the RSA and, given how he jumps and how strongly he stays, the four-mile National Hunt Chase, for which he is 20-1 generally, looks tailor-made.
He has a similar profile to Native River, who was second to Minella Rocco in the 2016 National Hunt Chase, and connections may follow a similar path to Cheltenham.
There is always a bit of guesswork when trying to fathom which race a novice chaser is going to run in, but his price more than reflects that and the four-miler looks his most likely target.
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So far so good for Elegant Escape. Loved his run at Newbury. He's only 5 years old so it could very well be that he has needed his first few chase runs to really get going so we could his performances keep improving. A rating of 150 puts him around where you want a horse to be in this race.
His 3 Chases this year (Chepstow, Exeter and Newbury) have all been very strong in times and sectionals, often being the best on the card. Plenty have come out of the races and won franking the form as well including the last few days:
Chepstow (6 runners)
1st - Mia's Storm - 13L Win at Market Rasan
3rd - Mr Mix - 2.5L Win at Wincanton, PU LTO in the Badger Ales
6th - Captain Chaos - 19L Win at Aintree and again at Wetherby by 1.25L
Exeter (4 runners)
3rd - Barney Dwan - 15L Win at Market Rasan (yesterday)
4th - De Dollar Man - 5L Win at Exeter (today)
If anything his recent performance may have put the RSA back onto the agenda so I did back him for the RSA at 40/1 earlier in the week as a cover bet. If he were to win at Kempton next time out it does sound like they may go that way and at the price, with the RSA maybe not looking quite as strong I think it's a worthwhile bet at that price.
One key aspect was the almost identical path him and Native River have taken in their careers up to this point, including the next run at Kempton on Boxing Day. Native River ran with plenty of credit (particularly at Kempton) but on the face of it was put in his place at Kempton and Wetherby which may well have pushed them down the 4 miler and not the RSA. At this stage in Native Rivers season they may not have thought the 4 miler was the target. All guesswork really but it is in the back of my mind when using NR as reasoning for his target.
That said, I still think this is the more likely the race and that this race suits him absolutely perfectly. If/when this race is mentioned again as the likely target by Tizzard I shall be topping up the 50's anyway!
Presenting Percy would be a HUGE player in this race if he lined up. The RSA probably is the most likely (interesting choice who Davy would ride: Monalee or PP if they both lined up...) though a recent interview with Pat Kelly mentioned:
"All is good with him, he's a hell of a good horse in my opinion anyway. I'll see where I go with him next but I won't go straight into a Grade One with him anyway."
"I'll go for a Grade Two or a Grade Three with him now or something like that but I wouldn't go for a Grade One with him, he's only six and you could ruin him putting him in there at that level too quick," Kelly continued.
"He's still only six, only six, and it's all right for the big boys running in those races, anything can happen, but we wouldn't have a lot of horses so we mind what he have as good as we can."
I imagine it'll become a lot clearer after each of these horses run next time out for which way they go
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