National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

[ComplyOrDie]

I can see very few finishers in this if its heavy...

Yeah, it was a race where a few on some of the preview panels have said they hack round and then finish the last 1 1/2 - 2m strongly, but they'll need to hack round a lot further than normal in heavy ground just to get their horses home I'd imagine.

[Kevloaf]

High OR in the 4 miler

Still plenty can change in this race still. Right now Presenting Percy (157) would be top OR if running and would likely win but is RSA bound. Invitation Only (153) and Black Corton (155) go elsewhere. Rathvinden (152) as Scooby highlighted could well end up top rated. Then you have a certain Elegant Escape (150)...come on Colin...do the right thing!

I can't find the original analysis .... but did find this snippet above, but jono has previously pointed out the superb record that the top rated horse has in the 4 miler. (I will have to try and find as because it explainss the context rather than just the 'trend'

Looking at tomorrow's race

Official ratings
Rathvinden 150 & Mossback 150
Jury Duty 148

On RPR's
Rathvinden 167
Jury Duty 165
Ms Parfois 163

Mossback is 5th in the RPR ratings with 159 and Ms Parfois is 4th in the Official ratings on 146.

Rathvinden comes out on top in both, so I'd 100% want him onside (fortunately my biggest winner already) and Jury Duty is not far behind! Mossback coming in for support isn't a surprise and should be in the mix too.
The one I like that I haven't got, who does well - is Ms Parfois - although not top rated, she's by no means out classed by any of these and I'll be very close to adding her to my book!

The one who is REALLY struggling is No Comment, 4th in the betting, but OR of 145 and RPR of 145 would leave him WELL SHORT. Safe to say he's priced on the jockey and the silks... I'd say that this year is not their year.

Boylesports gave me a £40 free bet, so I'll use that at 8/1 on Ms Parfois

[kinloch brae]

I can't find the original analysis .... but did find this snippet above, but jono has previously pointed out the superb record that the top rated horse has in the 4 miler. (I will have to try and find as because it explainss the context rather than just the 'trend'

Looking at tomorrow's race

Official ratings
Rathvinden 150 & Mossback 150
Jury Duty 148

On RPR's
Rathvinden 167
Jury Duty 165
Ms Parfois 163

Mossback is 5th in the RPR ratings with 159 and Ms Parfois is 4th in the Official ratings on 146.

Rathvinden comes out on top in both, so I'd 100% want him onside (fortunately my biggest winner already) and Jury Duty is not far behind! Mossback coming in for support isn't a surprise and should be in the mix too.
The one I like that I haven't got, who does well - is Ms Parfois - although not top rated, she's by no means out classed by any of these and I'll be very close to adding her to my book!

The one who is REALLY struggling is No Comment, 4th in the betting, but OR of 145 and RPR of 145 would leave him WELL SHORT. Safe to say he's priced on the jockey and the silks... I'd say that this year is not their year.

How could you possibly produce a confident rating for No Comment?

He was making his seasonal debut over a much shorter trip and acquitted himself well. Class wouldn't be a problem for me but I would be concerned about the trip and ground combination. He wouldn't be the only one with those doubts.

[Middle_Of_March]

Mrs Parfois and Keeper Hill for me


Both should stay

[Scooby91]

Mrs Parfois and Keeper Hill for me


Both should stay

Not on either but I do see them 2 as the big dangers. So i don't think your far wrong at all.

[Kevloaf]

How could you possibly produce a confident rating for No Comment?

He was making his seasonal debut over a much shorter trip and acquitted himself well. Class wouldn't be a problem for me but I would be concerned about the trip and ground combination. He wouldn't be the only one with those doubts.

My point is that he hasn't produced a performance so far that is good enough to win this race.

Whatever the reasons are, it's not a positive, and he's priced on his connections not his form.

The doubts you have are there, and he's not got the form in the book.

Easy to oppose if you follow trends.

Acquited himself well? All he showed is that he isn't dreadful. No way you can fancy no comment on anything but jockey.

I took the much bigger price befoe he ran (earlier in this thread) ... my point is that he's too short now based on his form and this trend that seems strong ... despite not liking trends haha

[charlie]

What is Pylonthepressure doing at home to make Willie think he wants 4 miles? Furthest he has gone is 2m5f

[AnFiieLD.]

What is Pylonthepressure doing at home to make Willie think he wants 4 miles? Furthest he has gone is 2m5f

Ricci also said on ATR last night pretty definitively that he thought he would get the trip. Interesting one

[charlie]

Ricci also said on ATR last night pretty definitively that he thought he would get the trip. Interesting one

Fair enough. Just seems odd. Might have a very small poke at a big price.

[kinloch brae]

My point is that he hasn't produced a performance so far that is good enough to win this race.

Whatever the reasons are, it's not a positive, and he's priced on his connections not his form.

The doubts you have are there, and he's not got the form in the book.

Easy to oppose if you follow trends.

Acquited himself well? All he showed is that he isn't dreadful. No way you can fancy no comment on anything but jockey.

I took the much bigger price befoe he ran (earlier in this thread) ... my point is that he's too short now based on his form and this trend that seems strong ... despite not liking trends haha

With the stable having a shocking season a 30 length third in a Grade 1 on seasonal and chasing debut is a long way from being dreadful. I would far sooner take 25/1 knowing a horse can actually jump rather than taking a bigger price without knowing. As it is the conditions have gone against him and he will probably drift. I presume as you are so negative you have laid the horse for a profit?

[Kevloaf]

With the stable having a shocking season a 30 length third in a Grade 1 on seasonal and chasing debut is a long way from being dreadful. I would far sooner take 25/1 knowing a horse can actually jump rather than taking a bigger price without knowing. As it is the conditions have gone against him and he will probably drift. I presume as you are so negative you have laid the horse for a profit?

So negative?

I've merely highlighted the trend that says he isn't highest rated ... his price NOW poor.

If you take the time to read through the forum you'll see I backed no comment and would have a 33.25 pt return if the trend is proven wrong this year.

I don't think I can be accused of not backing my opinions or methods to be honest but you can comment how you see fit

[Sirbetalot]

Had Sizing Tenn in this and it ran well, but hate front runners.. done a placepot and had the 1st 2nd & 3rd but not a penny on the fc or tric what a knob...

Ended up with a £1.80 place pot hope it pays ok ish... paid out £10.80 and if it pays over £25 quid I will be happyish...

[festival fanatic]

Ms Parfois just handed a big compliment to Black Corton tomorrow.

[Scooby91]

That will do he travelled well throughout and stayed all day. Hope a few others were on. And anyone without a winner. There a plenty of racing left and you've all got good chances.

[kinloch brae]

I did think Ms Parfois was going to get there but she was held close home.

No Comment was nursed into contention but didn't stay. I suspect three miles might be his limit. He is quick at his fences which didn't help O'Connor in trying to restrain him.