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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

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  • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post
    Not just pocket talking but just can’t see him troubling the principals in an RSA but looks tailor made for the Four Miler.
    Sums up my exact thoughts as well in one sentence CCM.
    And apologies RC - didn't see you posted the quotes until after I wrote the post

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    • No need to apologise Jono. Most of us feel the same about this, was still a great early shout by yourself even if he does end up going RSA

      Comment


      • Originally posted by jono View Post
        Sums up my exact thoughts as well in one sentence CCM.
        And apologies RC - didn't see you posted the quotes until after I wrote the post
        I honestly would run him in the rsa. I think he's got the rsa written all over him. If he went rsa and wasn't good enough you can take that on the chin and theres no what ifs. You known hes a solid performer over 3m. He ran samcro close in his ptp. Close 2nd in a grade 1 with previous form of beating the winner.
        He won his trial today. Why step in to the unknown? You've got he whole future to run over further if required. But why not see just how good he is at championship pace around Cheltenham. And take it from there. He has more right to be in the rsa than presenting percy ,
        Last edited by Scooby91; 11 February 2018, 07:26 PM.
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        • He was run off his feet the whole way in that Grade One though. And that was a poor Grade One with only four finishers on soft ground. He simply doesn’t have the pace for an RSA on decent ground to my eyes.

          The Four Miler is an unknown for most, but stamina looks his forte. There is a reason he’s so much shorter in the betting for the longer race imo; it’s the easier race for him to win.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post
            He was run off his feet the whole way in that Grade One though. And that was a poor Grade One with only four finishers on soft ground. He simply doesn’t have the pace for an RSA on decent ground to my eyes.

            The Four Miler is an unknown for most, but stamina looks his forte. There is a reason he’s so much shorter in the betting for the longer race imo; it’s the easier race for him to win.
            I wouldn't agree it was ran at a relentless pace with the likes of ballyoptic outpaced behind,

            The one thing I don't like. Not aimed at here at all, Honestly
            why's nobody moaning about PP going rsa on Twitter. When he hasnt took in any of the trials and ran over 3m4.
            But moaning about a horse who's ran in the trials booked his place and the owner who pays the bills wants to go for glory. And calling the owner all sorts of names because they've had a few quid on for the 4 miler.. because his hurdles form wasn't as good as PP so assume hes not as good a chaser.
            Last edited by Scooby91; 11 February 2018, 07:40 PM.
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            • I think the PP situation is different because the owners have another horse to consider. Mall Dini is a previous Festival winner so needs respect for me and it makes sense to split the two of them up.

              I also think PP is a better animal than EE myself.

              I wish the owners good luck wherever they go and have a decent cover bet at 33’s for the RSA so will still win plenty if he goes there. I just don’t think he’d have anything like the same chance.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post
                I think the PP situation is different because the owners have another horse to consider. Mall Dini is a previous Festival winner so needs respect for me and it makes sense to split the two of them up.

                I also think PP is a better animal than EE myself.

                I wish the owners good luck wherever they go and have a decent cover bet at 33’s for the RSA so will still win plenty if he goes there. I just don’t think he’d have anything like the same chance.

                All good points .
                As much as we all have opinions on who we think will win. No doubt there'll be suprises. If all the ones we think are unlikely winners diddnt run, it would be a pretty boring sport. Plenty of stars have been born from humble beginnings. Might bite for one, who could have forseen him turning out the way he has as a modest hurdler
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                • Amen to that

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                  • I'd echo a lot of what CCM is saying here, the 2nd place in a grade 1 at Kempton is in all likelyhood pretty flattering for Elegant Escape. Obviously we can't say what would have happened if both Mia's Storm and more importantly Fountains Windfall had of stayed up but at the points where they fell - first Mia's Storm was ahead of Elegant Escape who at the time was been pushed along, ridden and on his feet before clattering the 6th out and then fallen at 5 out. FW then fell 4 out when it looked like he had the race at his mercy. Now again for all we know EE may well have finished second regardless but i'd argue that would have been unlikely, certainly finishing in front of FW. If both had finished ahead of him that day - would a 4th instead of 2nd in that race changed the outcome of his target?

                    15 Oct - 3.5L behind Mia's Storm
                    7 Nov - 13L behind Ballyoptic
                    2 Dec - 0.5L ahead of Black Corton (receiving 3lbs, Fountains Windfall every chance before falling)
                    26 Dec - 1.5L behind Black Corton (this time level weights, Fountains Windfall several lengths ahead before falling)
                    11 Feb - 13L ahead of Ramses de Teillee

                    Elegant Escape is only 6 years old. In time and long term I would be surprised if he hasn't clearly outclassed the likes of Black Corton, Ballyoptic and Mia's Storm but right now his form is heavily tied in closely with those runners. Ballyoptic clearly ran no race at Kempton yet put him away easily the previous time they met. Off level weights Black Corton reversed the form at Newbury and it's questionable whether Mia's Storm may well have beaten him for the second time at Kempton.

                    You say if it turns out he wasn't good enough in the RSA they'd take it on the chin...if he's outpaced in the RSA but stays on up the hill, surely that would have made them think "maybe we should have gone for the 4 miler". If they decide to go for this race then he's their most likely winner of the whole week. They have a horse in the yard in Native River who tackled the 4 miler when you could have used the same argument for him. He came second then went onto win the Hennessy, Welsh National and 3rd in the Gold Cup the next year. And this year again is a strong contender for the Gold Cup. They are already talking about the same targets for Elegant Escape. So why change a formula that worked well previously. Particularly as the 4 miler had been mentioned several times early on in the season. Plans are always fluid of course and fair enough if the horse had showed a massive level of improvement as the season has gone on and forced their hand but his form is solid over spectacular.

                    He's one of my favourite horses of the season and i'm on 55/1 in this race and then 40/1 for the RSA so if he proved me wrong and won the RSA i'd still be absolutely delighted but all the evidence in his chasing career from what i've seen so far suggests the 4 miler is the best race for him - for the level he's been running too and how he's ran during each race.

                    I can see your point on Presenting Percy. My view on him - like i've said before I actually don't think Cheltenham is at the forefront of connections mind. The Irish National is the one for them. They haven't campaigned the horse for a specific festival race as such imo, instead favouring a pretty shrewd bit of placing for prize money route towards the Spring. €29.5k for the November Fairyhouse Handicap and €26.5k and Galmoy Hurdle are decent size prize pots in arguably easier races - more than most grade 2 chases (the grade 2 on Boxing Day that Al Boum Photo fell in was worth €26k). At the forefront of their minds I feel is to keep the partnership up with Russell, something that can't be done in this race and they can try and go for the extra £25k that the RSA is worth. Plus add in the fact of Mall Dini like CCM says. He'd win this race hands down for me, it's the most logical race and his best chance of winning at the festival. They're not going to pass up a strong chance at the festival with a horse like him but I don't think they'd care less if he ran say 4th in the RSA and then followed up with a win in the National. IF connections had actually wanted to work back from the RSA and it was all about that race, I think he would have been campaigned in a more traditional manner and taken in the main Irish trials.

                    Even taking Presenting Percy aside, where do you place the likes of Elegant Escape, and Black Corton against say the Flogas field, many of which are likely to step up to 3 miles?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by jono View Post
                      I'd echo a lot of what CCM is saying here, the 2nd place in a grade 1 at Kempton is in all likelyhood pretty flattering for Elegant Escape. Obviously we can't say what would have happened if both Mia's Storm and more importantly Fountains Windfall had of stayed up but at the points where they fell - first Mia's Storm was ahead of Elegant Escape who at the time was been pushed along, ridden and on his feet before clattering the 6th out and then fallen at 5 out. FW then fell 4 out when it looked like he had the race at his mercy. Now again for all we know EE may well have finished second regardless but i'd argue that would have been unlikely, certainly finishing in front of FW. If both had finished ahead of him that day - would a 4th instead of 2nd in that race changed the outcome of his target?

                      15 Oct - 3.5L behind Mia's Storm
                      7 Nov - 13L behind Ballyoptic
                      2 Dec - 0.5L ahead of Black Corton (receiving 3lbs, Fountains Windfall every chance before falling)
                      26 Dec - 1.5L behind Black Corton (this time level weights, Fountains Windfall several lengths ahead before falling)
                      11 Feb - 13L ahead of Ramses de Teillee

                      Elegant Escape is only 6 years old. In time and long term I would be surprised if he hasn't clearly outclassed the likes of Black Corton, Ballyoptic and Mia's Storm but right now his form is heavily tied in closely with those runners. Ballyoptic clearly ran no race at Kempton yet put him away easily the previous time they met. Off level weights Black Corton reversed the form at Newbury and it's questionable whether Mia's Storm may well have beaten him for the second time at Kempton.

                      You say if it turns out he wasn't good enough in the RSA they'd take it on the chin...if he's outpaced in the RSA but stays on up the hill, surely that would have made them think "maybe we should have gone for the 4 miler". If they decide to go for this race then he's their most likely winner of the whole week. They have a horse in the yard in Native River who tackled the 4 miler when you could have used the same argument for him. He came second then went onto win the Hennessy, Welsh National and 3rd in the Gold Cup the next year. And this year again is a strong contender for the Gold Cup. They are already talking about the same targets for Elegant Escape. So why change a formula that worked well previously. Particularly as the 4 miler had been mentioned several times early on in the season. Plans are always fluid of course and fair enough if the horse had showed a massive level of improvement as the season has gone on and forced their hand but his form is solid over spectacular.

                      He's one of my favourite horses of the season and i'm on 55/1 in this race and then 40/1 for the RSA so if he proved me wrong and won the RSA i'd still be absolutely delighted but all the evidence in his chasing career from what i've seen so far suggests the 4 miler is the best race for him - for the level he's been running too and how he's ran during each race.

                      I can see your point on Presenting Percy. My view on him - like i've said before I actually don't think Cheltenham is at the forefront of connections mind. The Irish National is the one for them. They haven't campaigned the horse for a specific festival race as such imo, instead favouring a pretty shrewd bit of placing for prize money route towards the Spring. €29.5k for the November Fairyhouse Handicap and €26.5k and Galmoy Hurdle are decent size prize pots in arguably easier races - more than most grade 2 chases (the grade 2 on Boxing Day that Al Boum Photo fell in was worth €26k). At the forefront of their minds I feel is to keep the partnership up with Russell, something that can't be done in this race and they can try and go for the extra £25k that the RSA is worth. Plus add in the fact of Mall Dini like CCM says. He'd win this race hands down for me, it's the most logical race and his best chance of winning at the festival. They're not going to pass up a strong chance at the festival with a horse like him but I don't think they'd care less if he ran say 4th in the RSA and then followed up with a win in the National. IF connections had actually wanted to work back from the RSA and it was all about that race, I think he would have been campaigned in a more traditional manner and taken in the main Irish trials.

                      Even taking Presenting Percy aside, where do you place the likes of Elegant Escape, and Black Corton against say the Flogas field, many of which are likely to step up to 3 miles?
                      No idea where elegant escape finishes here but i do know he deserves his place. Anything can happen during the race and the 2 of them black corton elegant escape bring very respectable form and importantly both jump well. It's not aleays the flashy ones that win. They're good consistent grade 1 novices. Good luck to them and connections. If your not in it you can't win. Wouldn't be suprised one bit if either finished infront of PP
                      Last edited by Scooby91; 11 February 2018, 09:54 PM.
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                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
                        No idea where elegant escape finishes here but i do know he deserves his place. Anything can happen during the race and the 2 of them black corton elegant escape bring very respectable form and importantly both jump well. It's not aleays the flashy ones that win. They're good consistent grade 1 novices. Good luck to them and connections. If your not in it you can't win. Wouldn't be suprised one bit if either finished infront of PP
                        True, it's not always the flashy ones that win the RSA. No More Heroes and More of That looked on a completely different level to the rest of the field in 2016 and it looked a match between the pair. One suffered an injury and the other bled and Blaklion and Shaneshill ended up finishing 1-2. Luck (or hinderance to others) played it's part in doing so and I feel something like that would be needed if both of Presenting Percy and Monalee line up in the RSA.

                        Only 31 days to find out
                        Last edited by jono; 11 February 2018, 10:32 PM.

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                        • Joe Tizzard on ATR this morning when asked about Elegant Escape:

                          He has the 2 entries…we haven’t really got that far to discuss what we are going to do to. He’s very progressive horse and he jumps and he stays well. He won a grade 2 at newbury so he’s got a bit of class. He got caught out in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. The track was just too plenty sharp for him to be honest. He was good again yesterday. We wanted to get that run into him and it would have done his confidence a lot of good and its all eyes on Cheltenham. But he’s got the 2 entries and we haven’t really discussed which way we’ll head yet
                          Fingers crossed all is not lost...

                          Comment


                          • Jono,
                            post 279 top stuff mate.

                            Comment


                            • Worth keeping an eye out for the declarations and running of the Ten Up Novices Chase at Navan on Sunday. The following currently entered:

                              Bonbon Au Miel - Mullins
                              C'est Jersey - Mullins
                              Dounikos - Elliott
                              Jury Duty - Elliott
                              Livelovelaugh - Mullins
                              Monbeg Notorious - Elliott
                              Mossback - Elliott
                              Moulin A Vent - Meade
                              Tout Est Permis - Morris

                              All bar the Morris runner have an entry here. Has been a final prep run for many in this race at the festival as below:

                              2017
                              Acapella Bourgeois
                              Road to Respect
                              Haymount - 3rd
                              (Edwulf - PU)

                              2016
                              Measureofmydreams - 3rd
                              Noble Endeavour - F
                              Pleasant Company - PU
                              (Shantou Flyer - PU)

                              2015
                              Very Wood - 10th
                              Noble Emperor
                              Thunder and Roses - U

                              2014
                              Foxrock - 9th
                              My Murphy
                              Clar N Mionn

                              2013
                              Terminal
                              Tofino Bay - 2nd


                              Sadly no Reynoldstown entry for No Comment at Ascot as I had hoped

                              Comment


                              • Jono,
                                I thought Dounikos ran a very eye-catching performance at the Dublin Fez. Got squeezed out on the run-in and stayed on very well. Ive added him with my EE bet.

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