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I was at sandown today and was listening to Tizzard chat to a connection after he had spoken to the press. Sounds like Robbie Power told him the horse doesn't know what he is doing and doesn't know his job which would be very concerning. His jumping has been iffy/poor in all three starts and from that comment I don't think it is likely to greatly improve. I have backed FO in a lot of multiples for the jlt, some which are looking pretty good, and am a bit disappointed they are now saying rsa. He looked very good coming up the hill last time out but wonder if the presence of death duty and willoughby court is making them think rsa. Either way I can't say I hold a great deal of hope in any race on hearing his comments today.
Thanks for that, that is worrying. They would be safer getting him a confidence booster or two if possible against weaker opposition instead of jumping back in against grade 1 animals perhaps.
Theres no need to apologize to anyone. You are one of the best posters on this forum (I follow you on twitter too mate lol). You took a strong view and put up your reasons for this. Everyone needs to follow their gut in this sport, sometimes it pays off sometimes it doesn't. I followed you in on Will Court after one of your posts. Sitting on 12s now about a horse who is as low as 5s. It was the smart cover for FO and well highlighted.
I find it hard to get the tone right in typing messages on forums, so apologies again if I came across wrong. But P.S I am disappointed in the trainer lol.
I second this ! . , but i don't follow you on twitter Kev .
It was actually a paraphrased quote from the trainer, Kev. I think he's as confused as everyone else.
My view, he's not good enough to win a standard RSA but very much up to the NH Chase if they get him right on the day. Credit to them for not fiddling with him for the Irish National.
Interesting that he's not even entered for the 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas.
Having a little re-think on Monalee, as I am only on in a double and a trixie (albeit both look quite good at the moment!)
One of the horses I haven't fully bought into yet compared to what I would consider the majority, so I am going to do some thinking "out-loud"....
1. I thought I'd look at his debut over fences first, which was impressive as he was last off the bridle, and only needed to be pushed out to win by 6L versus Any Second Now. It is a shame Invitation Only fell in the race early on, as he won next time, also beating Any Second Now over same distance (20f) by an easy 4.25L.
2. Second I thought I'd look at hurdles form and on their hurdles form, over 20f when they were beaten by Death Duty, Monalee had 1.5L in hand (2nd) over IO (3rd).
Point 1 and 2 lead me to believe that Monalee is a better horse than Invitation Only over 20f. Although I could see the case for backing IO at 3 times the price.... HOWEVER, the unknown for IO is how he'll fair up in trip.... whereas Monalee had a 2nd in the Albert Bartlett over 3m so we have more evidence that he does stay. These two factors probably explain the price difference between these two specifically?
3. Third thing - tried to look at past winners of the race Monalee won on debut to work out a target (one of my favourite things to do, however this is yet another occasion that proved to be fruitless....)
2016 Haymount (Placed at 33/1 in 4 miler)
2015 Outlander (Fell at 6/1 in JLT)
2014 Valsuer Lido (Placed at 9/2 in JLT)
2013 Champagne Fever (Placed at 11/4 Arkle)
The most ironic "stat" is that none of the winners actually ran in the RSA, although obviously won't pay too much attention to that??
4. Fourth point - Trainer comments - from stable tour...
We’re aiming him at a beginners chase in late October or early November. We might start him off over two-and-a-half miles and potentially move up in trip later on. He won his point-to-point and has always looked like a chaser in the making, so he’s obviously one we are really looking forward to.
After chase debut...
De Bromhead said: "I'm delighted and that's what you dream they'd start like.
"Davy gave him a super ride and he jumped great. He was deadly and I'm really happy.
"We bought him after he won his point-to-point so I haven't had to do a whole lot (with his jumping).
"He's a very good jumper and was always great over hurdles. We always hoped he'd improve over fences and that would be his game, that's what we bought him for.
"He's in the Drinmore but that was probably just to keep his options open. I'd imagine we'll be looking at the three miler at Leopardstown (over Christmas) and see how we go there.
"He's proven over the trip over hurdles and that was our plan originally.
"He was one of the ones you'd be dreaming of during the summer and it's nice to get this out of the way.
"With any of those top horses their first run over fences you want to see that they do naturally take to it as much as they just jump.
"You can say that they'll be a better horse over fences but sometimes it doesn't materialise. You couldn't have asked for much more.
On the possibility of targeting the RSA Chase at Cheltenham:- "It's a race that I've always been a little bit wary of. I've had the odd runner in it but not a fancied one.
"That's all a long way away and we'll just try and get to Leopardstown at Christmas, that's a massive one for us."
From 3 and 4 - I originally was quite taken by the fact HdB said he was wary of the race... I believe I commented on having reservations about him going for the RSA based on them a good number of pages back HOWEVER, having taken the time to find the full interview, I think the other parts scream that the RSA is in fact the target....
5. Guessing on the make-up of the race, I still think even if Monalee wins over Christmas, he'll still be around 3/1 SP just because of the likely number of runners in the race. I don't see this race cutting up particularly and you can almost guarentee that a Mullins horse will take a chunk out of the market, as well as whatever happens to be the "best of the British".
I just can't fall in love with this horse at the price of 7/1 - I have tried to, and am in no way whatsoever knocking anyone who is on or saying I don't think he can win the race but I am not seeing as much juice in the price... he's the kind of price that I find myself wanting to put in yankee's, rather than relying on/expecting anything from it.
Is anyone heavily invested in a single bet? I am still yet to take a strong opinion in the race, backed a few but all 33/1+ so far apart from Bacardys 12/1 (any race) which is my biggest stake at the moment in the race (unfortunately!) *Oh, and Death Duty ... but not expecting a run
Noted in Mark Howard’s email update yesterday that Topofthegame is being switched back to hurdles (aim the lanzarote hurdle on Jan 13th). Assuming that is for the rest of the season I find it a baffling decision. Jumped well enough until coming down on chase debut, and if ever a horse was to improve for fences it would be this huge, scopey sort
Yanworth would be my pick for this race but wouldn’t be at all confident currently that he’ll end up here. Monalee sure to be there or thereabouts, and I doubt bookies will miss the opportunity to trim him a point or two after a likely easy win over xmas
Cracking little race today. A shame presenting percy dosent run here to see if he ran under par in better company or what I believe to be that he was beaten fair and square.
Backed a few ew today that I believe are overpriced
Shattered love 16/1
Moulin au vent 16/1
Jury duty 12/1
Already on rathvinden 48.0
Monalee 16/1
Both for the rsa.
And will probably back something out of this race at a price that goes close ew for the rsa.
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Cracking little race today. A shame presenting percy dosent run here to see if he ran under par in better company or what I believe to be that he was beaten fair and square.
Backed a few ew today that I believe are overpriced
Shattered love 16/1
Moulin au vent 16/1
Jury duty 12/1
Already on rathvinden 48.0
Monalee 16/1
Both for the rsa.
And will probably back something out of this race at a price that goes close ew for the rsa.
Yeah looks a good race with 7 of the 8 feasible winners!
Interesting that Mark Walsh is riding for Gigginstown on Shattered Love - can't remember that happening before.
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