JLT Novices 2018

[jkite16]

8 left in the Drinmore; Death Duty, Rathvinden, Snow Falcon, Tombstone, Townshend, Shattered Love, Tout Est Permis, and Dinaria Des Obeaux.

It will be interesting to see how much is between Death Duty and Rathvinden in the betting, because on form and ratings there really is very little if anything at all. Dinaria Des Obeaux could be interesting with her allowance, but shouldn't be at these guys' level. Rathvinden running has to be a positive for his JLT backers, not so much for those on Bamako Moriviere.

Intersting PP go 20/1 for the JLT while everyone else is 33/1. I'd be mopping that up if I wasn't already on.

Keen to see Snow Falcon in this race too... Big fan of his, travelled well last time out just didn't quite get home, jumping looked sound too which is always a bonus. Not too sure on his intended target, but this will certainly give me a good idea on his class over the larger obstacles!

[doctorwu]

Montjeu,
Must admit Ive always had Rathvinden down for one of the handicaps ever since he had an ok novice campaign. I'll certainly keep a closer eye on the Drinmore now. Thanks.

[Scooby91]

Montjeu,
Must admit Ive always had Rathvinden down for one of the handicaps ever since he had an ok novice campaign. I'll certainly keep a closer eye on the Drinmore now. Thanks.

Hes good. Too highly rated for a handicap and too good realistically. I'd like to see him on good to soft again at some point but might not get the chance before chelt. Exactly the same goes for death duty to be fair. Some training performance with rathvinden so far and touch wood he stays sound for connections. Possibly rather than ground dependant he's come on for each run but time will tell

[ComplyOrDie]

Don't see Death Duty going anywhere but the RSA tbh, but that's purely my opinion, not an awful lot to back that up with yet either, just have this niggly feeling.

[Montjeu]

I’d rather the 20s any race with Hills for Rathvinden. He’s won over further and saw him tipped for the 4 miler earlier in the season (though would think this unlikely now) so could go anywhere. Winner of the Drinmore often ends up over further as well

Fair point, it's very hard to know really. At this stage I'd have Bacardys as the RSA horse, Rathvinden as the JLT horse and maybe let Bamako take his chance alongside him. As I've said I wasn't convinced of his standing in the pecking order, but the form of his last races has worked out exceptionally well so he has every right to take his chance in some of the big ones this season. Not sure Willie has, or needs, a 4 miler.

Interestingly, none of Wilie's JLT winners ran in the Drinmore, the Killiney Novice Chase at Leopardstown at the back end of January seems to be the main pointer. Will watch the entries for that closely.

[Montjeu]

I like Dinaria Des Obeaux too Scooby, and may bet her if she is a price, but ideally I'd like to see Death Duty and Rathvinden pull well clear of the rest of these and stamp their authority.

[Scooby91]

I like Dinaria Des Obeaux too Scooby, and may bet her if she is a price, but ideally I'd like to see Death Duty and Rathvinden pull well clear of the rest of these and stamp their authority.

Thats a big ask montjeu in such a competative race, id be very happy if that was the case, but we will soon see.

[Montjeu]

Fair point, it's very hard to know really. At this stage I'd have Bacardys as the RSA horse, Rathvinden as the JLT horse and maybe let Bamako take his chance alongside him. As I've said I wasn't convinced of his standing in the pecking order, but the form of his last races has worked out exceptionally well so he has every right to take his chance in some of the big ones this season. Not sure Willie has, or needs, a 4 miler.

Interestingly, none of Wilie's JLT winners ran in the Drinmore, the Killiney Novice Chase at Leopardstown at the back end of January seems to be the main pointer. Will watch the entries for that closely.

Maybe Tin Soldier or Al Boum Photo for the 4 miler.

[Scooby91]

Maybe Tin Soldier or Al Boum Photo for the 4 miler.

Shocking fall for Tin soldier last time out. I'd have to wait to see how he is, where he goes etc...

[Montjeu]

Shocking fall for Tin soldier last time out. I'd have to wait to see how he is, where he goes etc...

Yeah definitely, thought he wasn't getting up at one stage. Just thinking out loud, throwing out some potential runners. Won't be backing at this stage, not a race I massively get involved with ante post anyway.

[Scooby91]

Yeah definitely, thought he wasn't getting up at one stage. Just thinking out loud, throwing out some potential runners. Won't be backing at this stage, not a race I massively get involved with ante post anyway.

There's alot there especially ricci s who could go 4 miles.

Arbre de vie
Some neck
Turcagua
Live love laugh
Pylonthepressure

All want a trip.

[Montjeu]

There's alot there especially ricci s who could go 4 miles.

Arbre de vie
Some neck
Turcagua
Live love laugh
Pylonthepressure

All want a trip.

Right you are, they've all gone under my radar. Ricci sounded particularly keen on Turcagua last night.

[Scooby91]

Right you are, they've all gone under my radar. Ricci sounded particularly keen on Turcagua last night.

I can see why to be fair he did look a chaser and has some good form behind death duty / monalee. won't necessarily make the very top grade over fences but he should do better than he did over hurdles.

[Kevloaf]

Mullins will wasn't one for Patrick .... Turcuarga? Although wrong thread to think about that lol

[Montjeu]

Happy to take on Death Duty at 4/7 in the Drinmore. 10/3 Rathvinden, and 10/1 Dinaria, looks more than fair to me, and I can only see those getting shorter once the market takes proper shape. I have Death Duty backed for any race at the festival so I won't count it as a loser if he wins nicely, as I said, ideally himself or Rathvinden put in a good display. Will be a strong formline to take into the JLT whoever wins.