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  1. #41
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooby91 View Post
    "I would think around two and a half is where we will campaign this season. I don't think he will be an Arkle horse. We will see how it goes through the season, but he could be a JLT horse or an RSA horse."
    With King's hurdling record it is a positive for this horse he's going over fences I backed Yanworth for 1 pt for the JLT as my first ante-post bet I think... still the same price now haha. Rubbish bet.

  2. #42
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    The odd jump a bit novicey, but didnt do much wrong?

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanh97 View Post
    The odd jump a bit novicey, but didnt do much wrong?
    That said, some of the prices are about 5/1, thats poor

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanh97 View Post
    The odd jump a bit novicey, but didnt do much wrong?
    Very deliberate at times but nothing of major concern

  5. #45
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I thought I'd mentioned Willoughby Court in this thread already, but must have been in the ante post thread.

    Willoughby Court

    Season by season he’s getting easier and easier to train and he’s being less hard on himself, physically, by being not being as nervous and almost doing too much. He’s never summered better. He’s done brilliantly as he’s not the sort of horse that has summered well before. He looks great and we’re now well into our preparations for his first run of the season. He’s done five or six pieces of work at home, at least, if not a bit more and here we are in the middle of October with November 5 as his first target. That’s a novice chase at Huntingdon over 2m4f. It’s a fair track, we’ve had a lot of success there. The fences are kind but big enough that they respect them, so that’s definitely his first target. He’s never been better in himself. I’m keen to keep him over two and a half miles.. The speed that he has over his fences, at the moment three miles I think he might be doing too much so we’ll keep him at two and a half in the meantime and see where we are mid-season. I honestly think the JLT [would be his preferred Cheltenham Festival target] at the moment. He won a Neptune on good ground and it wasn’t a slow-run race. In team he’ll be a three miler and we can dream about what he might be in a year’s time. But I’m a firm believer in that you don’t go further than you need to before you have to.
    Only 1 firm are left 16/1 and I have put another 1 pt each way on to double up.

    Purely on the fact he is a previous festival winner over the distance, with the target being named is enough for me to take a bit of a nibble before we see him in action. I am certainly not an expert on jumping techniques but he looks good in the twitter clips that Ben Pauling has tweeted

    I do think it looks like being a strong race on paper and likely that we'll have a short priced fav in here as connections with 'sexier' colours/profiles will be nearer the top of the market... AND you can knock a bit of the earlier form behind MDObeaux/Keeper Hill perhaps, but when it mattered the most, he got the job done.

    I don't think this will shorten LOADS but I do think 16/1 is too big about a previous season festival winner... his battling quality is a big positive and as a front runner, picking 3 to get past him is not a straight forward task at the moment?
    Last edited by Kevloaf; Yesterday at 11:48 AM.

  6. #46
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I don't think this will shorten LOADS but I do think 16/1 is too big about a previous season festival winner... his battling quality is a big positive and as a front runner, picking 3 to get past him is not a straight forward task at the moment?
    I'm also on at 16/1 EW. Neon Wolf obviously made that mistake at the last but I don't think there were any excuses to be made. NW was in the perfect position and travelled through the race exactly as you would have wanted. He did make the mistake at the last which did lose momentum but I think even without that he would have struggled to get past the winner. He got back alongside but right at the end WC was pulling slightly away and never let him past.

    I had missed it before/on the day but looking back at quotes before the Neptune Pauling was actually really pleased with him coming into the race and that he had "a right chance" so it probably wasn't as big a shock as first seemed.

    Good ground was a concern leading up to the race but that is no longer a worry.

    16/1 for the Neptune winner who should be and has the physique to be a better chaser is definitely too big. Festival and course form is often backed up year on year. Last year the following previous winners at the 2016 festival lined up and finished in the following positions:

    Ballyandy - 4th
    Altior - 1st
    Un Temps Por Tout - 1st
    Vroum Vroum Mag - 2nd
    Douvan - 7th
    Cause of Causes - 1st
    Yorkhill - 1st
    UNWIMH - 3rd
    Diamond King - PU
    Mall Dini - 5th
    On the Fringe - 4th
    Solar Impulse - 16th

    If you were to take out the handicaps then that would have given you form figures of 41271134

    I'm actually more excited to see Willoughby Court over fences than I am over Yanworth and Pete Mouchoir, just 2 of the horses ahead of him in the betting and I think he will prove a better chaser than both of those.

  7. #47
    Watched Finians Oscar race few times over the weekend , my view was he was ok at his fences , nothing spectacular just a decent start for a good novice.
    The enemy though seem intent on shortening horses for any reason what so ever , and while we know Finians is very good at hurdling he spent far to much time warming up in the first mile , jumping high and deliberate for me to be backing him.
    That said if i was pushed to name his Cheltenham target it would be this The JLT.

  8. #48
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Regarding Finian's Oscar, I think he's better suited to the JLT, but he won't run in it. Potts will want the Arkle IMHO!



    I absolutely LOVED Neon Wolf, I think that was about as confident as I could have been about a horse ante-post going in to a novice race, including before Finian's Oscar got injured. If you wanted to be uber-critical, you could say NW would have won without the mistake at the last, but it wouldn't have been by more than 1/2L IMO, and I had Neon Wolf as more than 1/2 better than anything else in the field, including FO.

    I have 2 pts E/W on WC as I said, but I am going to have a couple of speculative multiples with him in... I do like Yanworth but can skip over fairly quickly. I am a little worried about FO but don't think he'll run and the only others less than 20s I don't think will run either (DD, Footpad, Bacardys)

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I thought I'd mentioned Willoughby Court in this thread already, but must have been in the ante post thread.



    Only 1 firm are left 16/1 and I have put another 1 pt each way on to double up.

    Purely on the fact he is a previous festival winner over the distance, with the target being named is enough for me to take a bit of a nibble before we see him in action. I am certainly not an expert on jumping techniques but he looks good in the twitter clips that Ben Pauling has tweeted

    I do think it looks like being a strong race on paper and likely that we'll have a short priced fav in here as connections with 'sexier' colours/profiles will be nearer the top of the market... AND you can knock a bit of the earlier form behind MDObeaux/Keeper Hill perhaps, but when it mattered the most, he got the job done.

    I don't think this will shorten LOADS but I do think 16/1 is too big about a previous season festival winner... his battling quality is a big positive and as a front runner, picking 3 to get past him is not a straight forward task at the moment?
    Maybe it's the fact he doesn't come from one of the more 'fancied' or 'fashionable' yards, though Ben Pauling has done nothing wrong, and his reputation is growing massively, but I struggle to get excited by Willoughby Court, but then again the Neptune didn't exactly have me too excited this year either!

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    Maybe it's the fact he doesn't come from one of the more 'fancied' or 'fashionable' yards, though Ben Pauling has done nothing wrong, and his reputation is growing massively, but I struggle to get excited by Willoughby Court, but then again the Neptune didn't exactly have me too excited this year either!
    On one hand I agree he is possibly overpriced being from a smaller, less fashionable yard. On the other hand though I have two doubts in my head: first is that I'm not sure how deep the Neptune field was last year, yes he beat Neon Wolf but he was only having his third start over hurdles and fifth career start versus Willoughby Courts fifth hurdle and ninth career start. Second is that I have a feeling the JLT could be the most competitive of the Novice chases this season and he will face much better and deeper competition including the more powerful yards.

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