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Cross Country Chase 2018

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  • #31
    Completely off topic but I never realised Cause of Causes took part in Champagne Fevers Supreme win

    Just rewatched it, as he is being pushed along half way round who would have thought he would have turned into such a beast!
    Admittedly he is there staying on past cheltenian and the likes up the hill!
    Last edited by Hurricane fly; 12 October 2017, 09:09 AM.

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    • #32
      Never even realised this HF. Gonna go and watch now

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Geordieboy83 View Post
        Never even realised this HF. Gonna go and watch now
        Watched this on YouTube as it predated my real interest in the sport - imagine getting 5/1 sp on the Mullins Ricci horse in the supreme

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        • #34
          Originally posted by robith View Post
          Watched this on YouTube as it predated my real interest in the sport - imagine getting 5/1 sp on the Mullins Ricci horse in the supreme
          Champagne Fever was 20/1 the week leading up to the festival and he was the previous seasons bumper winner........... and no, I didn't back him

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          • #35
            From RP stable tour.

            Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
              From RP stable tour.

              Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.
              This is brilliant news, still covering with Josies Orders mind as I'd be gutted if he came back and won it!

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                From RP stable tour.

                Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.
                Excellent. I agree Gordon

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                  From RP stable tour.

                  Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.
                  Superb. He also says that his win in this race was one of his highlights of the season last year. What looked like an almost certain target is now guaranteed for me.

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                  • #39
                    IF, I didn't already have 11 pts win on CoC - I would be getting at least 5 pts e/w on CoC at 7/1. (1/4 the odds)

                    For me, and as an each way price, it is just a bet on whether or not he turns up! if he does, and obviously it won't be everyones bag to bet ante post (although I doubt they're active on here at this stage to disagree) then what on earth would be stopping you.

                    I appreciate Auvergnat may improve, and I appreciate Josies Orders might bring in a different formline.... but I don't think either are worth worrying about AND even then, you'd make some money on the way way selection, because there is NO WAY that if he completes, he will not be coming up the hill stronger than anything else.

                    Even comparing the price to some of the other races, Samcro is 8/1 best price, we've never seen him jump an obstacle. Finian's Oscar is a similar price, and we don't know exactly what race he'll be in. Altior is 6/4 and might have to beat DOuvan. Douvan is 10/3 and might have to beat Altior. Buveur D'air is 4/1 and might have to take on Faugheen and all the novices. Faugheen is a similar price and has to come back from 2 years off....

                    It is an absolute good thing. I am going in each way at 7/1.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      IF, I didn't already have 11 pts win on CoC - I would be getting at least 5 pts e/w on CoC at 7/1. (1/4 the odds)

                      For me, and as an each way price, it is just a bet on whether or not he turns up! if he does, and obviously it won't be everyones bag to bet ante post (although I doubt they're active on here at this stage to disagree) then what on earth would be stopping you.

                      I appreciate Auvergnat may improve, and I appreciate Josies Orders might bring in a different formline.... but I don't think either are worth worrying about AND even then, you'd make some money on the way way selection, because there is NO WAY that if he completes, he will not be coming up the hill stronger than anything else.

                      Even comparing the price to some of the other races, Samcro is 8/1 best price, we've never seen him jump an obstacle. Finian's Oscar is a similar price, and we don't know exactly what race he'll be in. Altior is 6/4 and might have to beat DOuvan. Douvan is 10/3 and might have to beat Altior. Buveur D'air is 4/1 and might have to take on Faugheen and all the novices. Faugheen is a similar price and has to come back from 2 years off....

                      It is an absolute good thing. I am going in each way at 7/1.
                      Kev, I agree he's still worthy of a bet at 7/1 but can't see the logic in him each way at that price, with 5 months to go. The risk of him not showing up outweighs the reward, at the price. Just my opinion.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                        Kev, I agree he's still worthy of a bet at 7/1 but can't see the logic in him each way at that price, with 5 months to go. The risk of him not showing up outweighs the reward, at the price. Just my opinion.
                        That would usually be my opinion on anything south out 12/1, however - I genuinly think the 'place' part will be as big as the win part of the day - and the logic is, that the target is now a guarentee and that he has made it to Cheltenham for 5 festivals in a row. He isn't a horse thats ever struggled with fitness, and they don't NEED to do anything tough with him all season... he'll be falling out of the back of the TV in all the prep races, having a canter around and I think compared to most horses he is as likely as you can get to making it...

                        If I hadn't already got on the win at bigger odds, I might not want to, and I don't need to... but he can't be bigger than 6/4 on the day? Which on the day will give me better than a bet to nothing?

                        I haven't placed it yet, as the price won't change before you can all get my down from the cliff edge

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          That would usually be my opinion on anything south out 12/1, however - I genuinly think the 'place' part will be as big as the win part of the day - and the logic is, that the target is now a guarentee and that he has made it to Cheltenham for 5 festivals in a row. He isn't a horse thats ever struggled with fitness, and they don't NEED to do anything tough with him all season... he'll be falling out of the back of the TV in all the prep races, having a canter around and I think compared to most horses he is as likely as you can get to making it...

                          If I hadn't already got on the win at bigger odds, I might not want to, and I don't need to... but he can't be bigger than 6/4 on the day? Which on the day will give me better than a bet to nothing?

                          I haven't placed it yet, as the price won't change before you can all get my down from the cliff edge
                          I'm going to play this slightly different. I'm going to keep backing him until he gets to around 4/1. As you say, his likely SP will be less than 2/1 and at that point I'll start laying off my stake.

                          You won't get a more solid betting proposition than CoC at Cheltenham in March so don't let me talk you out of it!

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                          • #43
                            I actually didn't consider that I have CoC covered each way in some pretty nice looking multiples.

                            Our Duke, Buveur D'air,
                            Apple's Jade and Fayonagh
                            Samcro

                            so I don't need to do this

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                            • #44
                              I can see the reasoning behind going for the each way part but personally, with so much going for the horse i'd just go all out for the win only at 7/1. I'd much rather bet 10 points on the win then 5/5pts. If you did want the safety net or guarantee of profit I would just keep backing him win only and then lay off to ensure your moneyback /profit on the day if that's anyones thing.

                              I genuinely thing 9/1 was probably the best value antepost price I have ever seen since i've been doing it, and 7/1 is still fantastic value.

                              Josies Orders went off 15/8F in 2016. CoC went off 4/1 second favourite last year and that was despite being thumped 43 lengths in the rescheduled January trial AND the fav Cantlow really doing nothing wrong by romping to victory in the first trial and finishing second giving weight (albeit not a major thing in this race but on face value) to the winner in that second trial. If his price shortened that much last season, it's only going to be a lot shorter after winning it. I see Garde Champetre went off 4/6F the year after he won the race for the first time and I expect the same. Maybe it isn't enough to move the price but I also think after finishing second in the previous years Grand National, he'll be a popluar bet for the casual punter on the day.

                              I know connections have made no comment but do we expect Cause of Causes to line up at the Open meeting?

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                              • #45
                                Should have taken a bit of the 10/1

                                I actually agree with you FM/jono - it is probably better to just go win only and lay off the stake. I was just excited about the place being higher than the likely SP but I don't think that is as good as a 'bet to nothing' when I think the win is so much more likely anyway.

                                He has to go off short, the JP horses get backed anyway a lot of the time.... recognizable name, last years winner. He's going off 4/6

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