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Ryanair Chase 2018

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I have considered your points... but you are wrong

    Douvan/Yorkhill shouldn't have the option to not race in one of the Championship races at Cheltenham. They should HAVE to take on the superstars. Otherwise we are just potentially watching uncompetitive racing.

    They should make it a grade 2 again, as that way it'd be a huge insult if they'd won a Grade 2 with these 'superstars'. I mean, it is called the RYANAIR - money is the reason this race was introduced and there is no need for it at the festival. We do not need to know in March, who the best 2m5f horse is do we?

    I appreciate it is a specialist distance, but wouldn't it add to the season if a CC winner and a GC winner met down the line, at Aintree or Punchestown.... added in to the mix the "middle distance specialists" ....
    What rattled your cage Kev.

    100% agree btw

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
      I have considered your points... but you are wrong

      Douvan/Yorkhill shouldn't have the option to not race in one of the Championship races at Cheltenham. They should HAVE to take on the superstars. Otherwise we are just potentially watching uncompetitive racing.

      They should make it a grade 2 again, as that way it'd be a huge insult if they'd won a Grade 2 with these 'superstars'. I mean, it is called the RYANAIR - money is the reason this race was introduced and there is no need for it at the festival. We do not need to know in March, who the best 2m5f horse is do we?

      I appreciate it is a specialist distance, but wouldn't it add to the season if a CC winner and a GC winner met down the line, at Aintree or Punchestown.... added in to the mix the "middle distance specialists" ....


      I agree the race should be a grade 2, definitely. I'd also agree on face value the best horses should run in the championship races. I'm not a Ryanair 'fanboy' by any means I just don't quite get the hate that seems to be attached to it. If they were to get rid of the middle distance chase races I'd have no issue but at the same time I wouldn't say there's "no need for it" at the festival.

      I'm sure it's very much part of me getting into racing when this was already in place though, i'm not used to any different. I'm dead against a 5 day festival (even though it WILL happen) and I know a 2m4 hurdle race will come into play at some point. I have no need for that race so that being the case, I shouldn't want the JLT and Ryanair either.

      I still think a large part of this revolves around Mullins as take out his few superstars that have or could run in the race this year and I don't see many examples and less of an issue. Even if they did get rid of this race i' m sure he'd somehow find a way to split his best horses up!!

      A question though - Just to flip this around slightly. Right now it looks like the JLT could be a stronger race than the Arkle come March, I think everyone can agree this far out? You've mentioned elsewhere you think the Arkle could be there for the taking for Finian's Oscar and you could see him diverting to that. Plenty of If's and Buts but what would you prefer:

      Finains Oscar vs Willoughby Court vs Yanworth in a competitive JLT
      OR
      Finains Oscar goes for the Arkle where he could bolt up evens / odds on.

      Would you be going; Good he should run in the Arkle, it's the more prestigious race, the best horses should run at 2 miles or 3 miles...
      OR
      Would you be disappointing he has gone for the easier option and not taken on the others in the JLT??
      Last edited by jono; 25 September 2017, 06:52 AM.

      Comment


      • #18
        As a punter I'd love them to take the option I had bet on them in, but if I was the owner I'm afraid I'd be aiming it at the race I felt gave me the best chance of having a Cheltenham Festival winner, if that's the easier route then so be it.

        It's tough on punters sometimes, but we don't pay the bills for these animals, you don't get race horse owners telling us what to do with our money, so why would they listen to us in telling them what race they should be targeting.

        It's probably highly unlikely, but IF owners/horses were forced to take on the better races for 'competitive' racing, then they are well within their rights to pull all their horses from the festival/race entirely, this is the extreme, but wouldn't be beyond happening, and if that person happened to be a RR or a JP then suddenly you would have a well below par festival, that would be, on the whole, uncompetitive.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
          What rattled your cage Kev.

          100% agree btw
          Felt like putting jono in his place

          Originally posted by jono View Post


          A question though - Just to flip this around slightly. Right now it looks like the JLT could be a stronger race than the Arkle come March, I think everyone can agree this far out? You've mentioned elsewhere you think the Arkle could be there for the taking for Finian's Oscar and you could see him diverting to that. Plenty of If's and Buts but what would you prefer:

          Finains Oscar vs Willoughby Court vs Yanworth in a competitive JLT
          OR
          Finains Oscar goes for the Arkle where he could bolt up evens / odds on.

          Would you be going; Good he should run in the Arkle, it's the more prestigious race, the best horses should run at 2 miles or 3 miles...
          OR
          Would you be disappointing he has gone for the easier option and not taken on the others in the JLT??
          I don't think the JLT/Ryanair comparison is quite the same as having the extra, middle, distance for the novices gives them options as they are still learning/growing(in some cases) BUT I'd prefer the competitive race yes... however, I would want the 3rd option, no JLT, and then the Arkle AND RSA are fantastic?

          Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
          As a punter I'd love them to take the option I had bet on them in, but if I was the owner I'm afraid I'd be aiming it at the race I felt gave me the best chance of having a Cheltenham Festival winner, if that's the easier route then so be it.

          It's tough on punters sometimes, but we don't pay the bills for these animals, you don't get race horse owners telling us what to do with our money, so why would they listen to us in telling them what race they should be targeting.

          It's probably highly unlikely, but IF owners/horses were forced to take on the better races for 'competitive' racing, then they are well within their rights to pull all their horses from the festival/race entirely, this is the extreme, but wouldn't be beyond happening, and if that person happened to be a RR or a JP then suddenly you would have a well below par festival, that would be, on the whole, uncompetitive.
          I don't think I am telling the owners what to do though? As I said before - if they told me who was being AIMED at the Ryanair, then I'll try and profit from it, if I would have KNOWN Vautour was going for the Ryanair, I would have had him in every single multiple, as I would knowing Yorkhill or Douvan we're going this year. If the Ryanair didn't excist Vatour would have been in the Gold Cup, and that would have been more enjoyable.... how much money I make, only ADDS to the festival for me, I would want to watch the championship races whether I had bet in them or not?

          I don't blame the owners for wanting a winner...but there has to be a point which is too far. A greys only race? What if Dessie's owners had that option and wanted the "festival winner"... Obviously I am being a little facetious but everyone can surely agree at some point there are too many races.

          Like jono, I have only ever watched the festival in its current 4 day format, so I think thats brilliant, but I have to factor in recency bias. I am sure people with more experience would argue the 3 day festival was better, or before the JLT was introduced and so on...

          I have a question.... I read Tizzard is undecided on where Cue Card will go... Gold Cup or Ryanair... if he won the Ryanair, how would people feel? I think it'd be great for the race and a popular win, but it'll be an example that the Ryanair isn't as good a race, and shouldn't be a group 1 alongside the Gold Cup?

          Comment


          • #20
            I don't disagree with you entirely Kev, but I think Vautour runs in the Ryanair that year whether it be a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race, I wish he hadn't as I was fully invested for the Gold Cup in him, but that's another story haha!

            I think Cue Card has to go to the race he has the best chance in and do agree that the Ryanair probably shouldn't be a Grade 1, but don't think it would put any trainer or owner off tbh!

            They'll run them in the races they want regardless of our thoughts too.

            We would all like to know what races they are going to actually run in, but unfortunately that is the risk of ante post betting, but they can't have 1 month declarations to please punters as there are many variables that could mean the fields are depleted entirely.

            Just wondering, how many horses with known targets were re-routed this year? I know many pulled out through injury, but that is something that can't be helped.

            Comment


            • #21
              I don't understand why people think a two and a half mile grade 1 hurdle would be a good addition. It's ideal for the powerful owners and trainers but it's the racegoer who'd be missing out on some big clashes. For example, The New One v Faugheen v Hurricane Fly certainly wouldn't have happened.

              Getting back to the Ryanair though - surely UDS take all the beating again this season, especially if the hose pipes are turned on again on the Wednesday night.

              Comment


              • #22
                FM - I think having taken the plunge in the chase division by not doing it for hurdlers they've created an inconsistency....

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                  FM - I think having taken the plunge in the chase division by not doing it for hurdlers they've created an inconsistency....
                  They certainly have, but two wrongs don't make a right. Odds on favourites and small field championship races will be common place if the dilution continues.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Interesting from the Tizzard stable tour regarding Fox Norton: "He will go for his second crack at the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham after being beaten only a head in the race last March. He will take in the Shloer and the Tingle Creek and he will be given an entry in the King George too just in case the other horses don’t run there. The only time we stepped up in trip was at Aintree and he ran superb to win the Melling Chase over two and a half miles. He is a very classy horse and we will start at two miles but if gets beat a few times we will step him up in trip."

                    Not even a 'might' it's almost definite and there he is sitting as short as 7/2 favourite for the Ryanair!

                    I always take trainers/jockeys/owners comments with a pinch of salt but I also believe Colin Tizzard to be one of the most genuine I have listened to and indeed met.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      My understanding is that Potts wants to go for the CC and he has no interest in the Ryanair at all, despite Tizzard being sure he'd be better up in trip. Tizzard thinks FN could be a King George horse but won't get to test it unless anything happens to Sizing John.

                      I could find all the quotes but I'm sure you believe me

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        And Potts generally calls the shots I believe?

                        In which case it makes the Ryanair price somewhat bizarre, I also don't feel he should be that short even if he was running in this race tbh!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I thought about Top Notch for this race after his effort behind Yorkhill and ahead of Disko last year... and I saw Hendo say he hopes he could turn into a Ryanair contender..... but 16/1 is pretty skinny. Just less than double that on the exchange. Not a bet at this stage for me but I do really like the horse.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Does Road to Respect have a history of jumping quite violently to the left like he did today?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              I think I had forgotten just how impressive UN DE SCEAUX was in this race last year.

                              Won an Arkle, 2nd to Sprinter Sacre in a CC and won a Ryanair at Cheltenham. I think he'd have won the CC this year, but he is a better horse over further at the age he is now. The fact he pulled so hard and still managed to win as he did this year was mighty impressive and although there is a slight chance he'd drop to the CC, you'd think something would have to happen to Douvan, Min and Great Field unless it was HEAVY.

                              My first post in this thread has quotes from Joe Tizzard saying Potts wants Fox Norton to go for the CC or GC depending on Sizing John, and because FN beat UDS over 16f (albeit looking like he out-stayed him as he was off the bridle long before) and FN also showing his best form over 20f, I have to admit, I'd probably think FN has the beating of UDS over the Ryanair trip BUT at 13/2 I think it is not giving UDS enough respect.

                              This is not a sexy race at all and I might be crazy but I think you can nail your colours to the mast and say this is UDS's target!

                              Fox Norton 5/1 - Target is CC, then GC!
                              UDS 13/2 - 2017 champion
                              Yorkhill 8/1 - Would win, won't run
                              Djakadam 10/1 - made my case for him with his superb intermediate trip figures, but Gold Cup is the aim again
                              Douvan 10/1 - Would win, won't run
                              Min 14/1 - Seen the case that he might turn up here, wouldn't like to take the price
                              Might Bite 14/1 - These bookies should be ashamed to have this horse quoted
                              Great Field 16/1 - doesn't want the step up in trip yet!
                              Road to Respect 16/1 - Gold Cup campaign
                              Coney Island 16/1 - Gold Cup campaign
                              Top Notch 16/1 - Aimed at the race and I do like him...
                              Charbel 16/1 - I believe aimed at the race, and I do like him....

                              Gigginstown will end up with a live chance, I would like Disko but doubt he'll run, Sub Lieutenant was well held last year in 2nd and Balko Des Flos? pah

                              The 13/2 with Betfair just looks too big to me, as a single...

                              I have 2 pts on UDS at 8.4
                              1 pt on Cue Card at 35.0 (speculative)
                              0.5 pts on Outlander at 54.0

                              I should add Top Notch and Charbel at 16's, potentially each way... but not before I top up on UDS...
                              Last edited by Kevloaf; 22 October 2017, 10:35 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                May be to my detriment but certainly has payed off handsomely in previous years, but i can't touch any mullins horse that's standout top price with pp/ Betfair. Vvm in the mares market another that seems to good to be true

                                I won't go into detail but either they're traders are phenomenal or .......
                                interesting that the 2 in question seemed to walk past the gallops when samcro was working, when they cut from 16s to 8s before anyone else, or any news in public domain.
                                Last edited by Scooby91; 22 October 2017, 11:50 PM.
                                https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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