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  1. #721
    Just spotted that BetWay have this market and he is indeed 20/1! 1/5 odds, 3 places.

  2. #722
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking Flagship View Post
    Just spotted that BetWay have this market and he is indeed 20/1! 1/5 odds, 3 places.
    That'd be effectively 6/4 the place...

    Would you back Ordinary World at 6/4 to come in the top 4? I probably wouldn't....
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 02-19-2018 at 12:08 AM.

  3. #723
    How do you mean Kev? Are you working on the basis that OW can’t possibly finish 2nd? If that’s where you stand then it’s probably not a bet for you! I just don’t think it’s such a foregone conclusion that Altior and Min are 1st and 2nd.

  4. #724
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    FM - do we go in again?

    God's Own gave it away by making a mistake in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year and he will be back for another crack. He's in great form and pleasing me.
    50/1 with Boyle

  5. #725
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking Flagship View Post
    How do you mean Kev? Are you working on the basis that OW can’t possibly finish 2nd? If that’s where you stand then it’s probably not a bet for you! I just don’t think it’s such a foregone conclusion that Altior and Min are 1st and 2nd.
    The "real" place value for me 6/4 is... (20 as an example)

    40 staked in total (20 e/w) 20/1
    1/5 the odds mean the place is 4/1 (if OW places its 20 at 4/1 so return 100)

    Total is 40 stake and 100 return
    That is 6/4.


    I do not give OW any chance of winning, so for me, its 6/4 to place. I wouldn't lump on that.... I'd prefer the e/w bet than the place only because there is always a CHANCE he'd win... but I consider the "true" place value before I make any bets where I think the head of the market is strong.

    Hope that makes sense
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 02-21-2018 at 09:02 PM.

  6. #726
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    The "real" place value for me 6/4 is... (20 as an example)

    40 staked in total (20 e/w) 20/1
    1/5 the odds mean the place is 4/1 (if OW places its 20 at 4/1 so return 100)

    Total is 40 stake and 100 return
    That is 6/4.


    I do not give OW any chance of winning, so for me, its 6/4 to place. I wouldn't lump on that.... I'd prefer the e/w bet than the place only because there is always a CHANCE he'd win... but I consider the "true" place value before I make any bets where I think the head of the market is strong.

    Hope that makes sense
    Yep all makes sense Kev - except we were talking about the W/O market - so 2nd to Altior would constitute a win. I’d be of the opinion that 2nd to Altior is not beyond the realms of possibility for OW which means the win element of the bet is alive. This is not a bet I’ve placed at this stage but it has merited some consideration in a race in which I don’t really have a position as I feel most of the principles have lacked any sort of value for months.

  7. #727
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    You could boost it to 2/1 if you put it on with a bookie going 1/4 the odds too!
    Last edited by Cashew King; 02-22-2018 at 08:06 AM.

  8. #728
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cashew King View Post
    It’s 2/1 - you’d get 20 quid stake back too!

    40 staked - 120 return, so 80 profit - viewed against your stake your profit would be like having a 2/1 winner - don’t know if that’s enough to tempt you?

    You could boost it to 5/2 if you put it on with a bookie going 1/4 the odds too!
    That 100 is correct including stake back. as is 6/4.
    Back your own judgement
    But imo no chance he's 2nd. And youd be hoping to scrape 4th for 6/4
    Last edited by Scooby91; 02-22-2018 at 07:53 AM.

  9. #729
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooby91 View Post
    That 100 is correct including stake back. as is 6/4.
    Back your own judgement
    But imo no chance he's 2nd. And youd be hoping to scrape 4th for 6/4
    Too quick scooby - just out of bed!

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