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Champion Chase 2018

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  • Emmet Kennedy on The Racing Club podcast says having spoken to Graham Wylie, Yorkhill will be going back over 2 miles, whether that is over hurdles or fences

    Emmet Kennedy and Rupert Bell reflect on the action over the Christmas period at Leopardstown and Kempton. RUK’s Will Hayler gives us his best bets for the day including the Chadlow Hurlde at Newbu…

    Comment


    • Originally posted by jono View Post
      Emmet Kennedy on The Racing Club podcast says having spoken to Graham Wylie, Yorkhill will be going back over 2 miles, whether that is over hurdles or fences

      Emmet Kennedy and Rupert Bell reflect on the action over the Christmas period at Leopardstown and Kempton. RUK’s Will Hayler gives us his best bets for the day including the Chadlow Hurlde at Newbu…


      Kevin Blake makes the case for fenced in his latest blog

      Mullins bingo then

      Yorkhill CC
      Min Ryanair
      UDS Gold Cup

      Or

      Min CH
      Yorkhill CC
      Ids Ryanair

      Comment


      • Originally posted by mayo View Post
        Kevin Blake makes the case for fenced in his latest blog

        Mullins bingo then

        Yorkhill CC
        Min Ryanair
        UDS Gold Cup

        Or

        Min CH
        Yorkhill CC
        Ids Ryanair
        Or yorkhill CH
        MIN CC
        UDS Ryanair

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          Or yorkhill CH
          MIN CC
          UDS Ryanair
          That would seem to make most sense, to me.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by TimRiggins View Post
            That would seem to make most sense, to me.
            All likely to hit the frame if they did ... that combo for me doesn't give them the best chance of a winner though.

            I can see Yorkhill and UDS/Min in the same race. I don't think Min or UDS warrant enough respect.

            Comment


            • Aren’t the only suitable races for Yorkhill pre festival going to be 2m or 3m, no left handed 2.5s to be run.

              Wouldnt say it dictates his festival target.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                All likely to hit the frame if they did ... that combo for me doesn't give them the best chance of a winner though.

                I can see Yorkhill and UDS/Min in the same race. I don't think Min or UDS warrant enough respect.
                I might have a tenner e/w treble, just for an interest

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
                  Aren’t the only suitable races for Yorkhill pre festival going to be 2m or 3m, no left handed 2.5s to be run.

                  Wouldnt say it dictates his festival target.
                  No one is saying that are they?

                  2m1f then step back up for the festival?
                  Unless it's over hurdles then his destination is clear

                  Comment


                  • Hi All,

                    My very first post :-)

                    I do feel people are a bit quick to dismiss MIN and I have my own opinions on this, which I will share when I have a bit more time. Andy Holding is quoted as saying he believes MIN is the best 2 miler in the Mullins yard, better than Douvan. Some statement from such a respected pundit. I am a bit of a super fan of Andy and his speed ratings have helped me no end. I asked Andy if he could share his ratings for the CC as they stand... he wasnt able to but he did give me this snippet

                    "Min best of the 2m chasers so far with an 80 (76 at Leopardstown the other day). Interestingly, Politologue was much slower than on both the overalls and sectionals Cyrname at Kempton so either the latter is one of the best novices seen so far or the Nichols grey isn't as good as we think."

                    I have already backed Min for the CC, im on at 12/1 and 8/1, but quotes of 11/2 with PaddyPower are tempting me in all over again. Given we might struggle to get 8 runners turn up.. we could be looking at 6 runners on the day and Min only needs to beat 3 of them home to place and return a very small profit.. and should all the aces come up (Min improves enough to beat Altior) or more likely Altior underperforms, an 11/2 payday.

                    An interesting read is Lydia Hislop of Sporting Life. She has a few other views of other Festival races in her Road to Cheltenham column; https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...ized-up/136814

                    Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

                    The two most significant currently active players in this division both passed the post first on Wednesday: Min lost his race in the stewards’ room at Leopardstown whereas Politologue’s only substantial opponent fell at Kempton, leaving him to dawdle round in a slow time.

                    In my view, Min achieved more that day and yet his performance has been pigeonholed as disappointing and many bookmakers pushed him out to third favourite for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Accordingly, Politologue was widely promoted to market second best behind Altior.

                    In fairness, the grey probably should have been shorter than Min in the betting anyway because, in winning the Grade One Tingle Creek, he had already posted superior form – albeit you can argue, in light of the left-hand bias runner-up Fox Norton displayed in the King George, that this form is a tad over-rated.

                    Min’s shorter odds were based on potential and the reputation of his various stable companions floating around this division – which, as mooted in this column last week, is now perhaps more likely to include the peripatetic threat of Yorkhill. (More on that in Saturday’s edition of the Road.)

                    In the dramatic denouement to the Leopardstown Grade One lost by Min, his jockey Paul Townend drifted off the inside rail approaching the final flight. That presented rider Mark Walsh, on promoted winner Simply Ned, with a legitimate opportunity to challenge on his inside, initially taking Townend by surprise. After studying the two bouts of interference against the rail, the stewards opted for demotion and a two-day suspension for careless riding for Townend.

                    Speaking to Gary O’Brien about Min on At The Races, trainer Willie Mullins said: “It’s hard to say we were unlucky. He was there, he passed the post first. I don’t know if the other horse would ever have passed him.”

                    He then continued, more crisply: “The race was a funny race from the start. The first four furlongs told a lot about [pause] certain things... That’s the way it is… That’s what happened… People can make their own minds up.”

                    Asked whether he believed Min was “a lot better than what we saw there”, Mullins said: “I don’t think he’ll have to be. He won and obviously infringed the rules but he was first past the post. I still say even with a clear run, he’d have kept pulling it out.”

                    It’s clear from this interview that Mullins was not merely irked about losing the race in the stewards’ room. On that front, his argument that Simply Ned might never have got past Min with a clear run is feasible: the promoted winner had never before triumphed in a graded race and despite often travelling strongly in such contests – such as this race’s 2015 renewal – has often found little.

                    However, the interference in the first instance was sustained and in the second instance marked enough to send pieces of plastic railing flying. The latter bout came just as Simply Ned had responded positively to a strike of the whip from rider Walsh in the dying stages of the race. It’s therefore entirely reasonable that the stewards opted to amend the result under Turf Club rules.

                    Walsh felt that “with a clear run, I’d definitely have won”. “He [Min] impeded me the whole way up to the line. I jumped the last behind Paul [Townend] but there was plenty of room. When the rail came, Paul started leaning on top of me and there was a significant bang quite close to the line.”

                    Yet Mullins was palpably most nettled when referring to “the first four furlongs” of the race and the pause in his speech (quoted above) came across as a tool of self-governance to avoid telling us specifically what those furlongs “told a lot about”. As we’ve been left to make up our own minds, we should do so.

                    To my eye, Townend struggled to hold Min in the early stages, allowing him – if there was any choice – to tear off with front-running Tell Us More. When that horse rushed at the second and blundered badly, Min was left in a sizeable lead that the likes of Russell, Jack Kennedy and Walsh wanted no part in.

                    Now, they may not have wanted to mix it with a 2/7 favourite or else they may have deemed the pace was too strong. I suspect the latter and that Mullins would have preferred Townend to steady Min once left in front rather than continue to freewheel. These early fractions surely rendered them vulnerable late on.

                    This, combined with the tactical error of drifting off the inside rail late, lost Min this race as much as the interference did – perhaps more so, given the tactics set the scene for a desperate finish and result-affecting incident.

                    To return to what Min actually achieved, it was a safe if somewhat raw round of jumping – if occasionally overly big and occasionally spot on – and the way he tanked through the race surely means the Ryanair is a far less likely Festival option than the Champion Chase. He palpably didn’t lack for speed but Mullins is going to have to instil a more sophisticated style of racing.

                    Ordinary World, who missed his intended target in the Tingle Creek due to coughing and is therefore perhaps difficult to assess with confidence, was 15-and-a-half lengths adrift in third. Ball D’Arc, also coming back from the sick list after missing the Hilly Way due to running a temperature, would have been well below his recent form had he not unseated Kennedy at the last.

                    Simply Ned’s incoming UK mark was officially 6-7lbs below that of last season and yet his first two starts this term did not appear so vastly different to what he was achieving last season. Having run well in this race three times previously, it’s not hard to envisage him returning to near his best even at the age of ten.

                    If that’s the case, for the sake of argument and working calculations, a disadvantageously ridden Min can be pretty much rated as dead-heating with Simply Ned. That would see them both achieving about 160/161 in ratings terms, with Ordinary World plausibly running a handful of pounds below form and the clock underpinning this interpretation.

                    Clearly, even if you factor in excuses, this is not form to trouble the Altior we saw last season. But – to repeat the premise of this column’s Min bet at 8/1 – the market assumed (and assumes) both that he’ll return and that he’ll be as good as he was. This season alone to date surely demonstrates that neither foundation is unquestionably sound.

                    However, I suspect Min strictly achieved more there than Politologue managed at Kempton after his only serious rival departed at the eighth in the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase. That horse was reigning Champion Chase hero Special Tiara, who had previously won Kempton’s 2016 renewal in underwhelming fashion.

                    On Wednesday, he adjusted left from the first fence and even semi-leapt over the path prior to jumping wildly at the seventh and plunging through the next – a fall that did not surprise you, were you watching live. This was an uncharacteristically poor round of jumping and he displayed no such left-hand bias here last term, so perhaps something was bugging him?

                    Neither Vaniteux nor Forest Bihan were able to get involved – albeit having been held up away from the principals, both were hampered by the faller whereas the winner got away scot free. Eventual runner-up Vaniteux hasn’t been running anywhere near his best form lately, although the previous start was better.

                    The time was underwhelming – two seconds slower than novice stable companion Cyrname in the earlier Grade Two Wayward Lad over the same course and distance (more on him on Saturday) – but given all we know about Politologue it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect otherwise in such circumstances. Indeed, Sam Twiston-Davies had to get highly animated in driving the good-jumping idler home from the last.

                    This all adds up to a performance that’s hard to assess with any certainty – you can fashion arguments with a stone’s worth of disparity – but probably ends up in the high 150s.

                    “He did all he had to do,” said trainer Paul Nicholls, when interviewed by Nick Luck on Racing UK. “As soon as Special Tiara fell, we knew we were in trouble because he doesn’t do a whole heap in front. But he’s just galloped on round here and got the job done.

                    “He’s a staying two-miler – the quicker they go, the better he is and he doesn’t want to be in front too soon.”

                    Kempton represented a change of plan for Politologue, re-routed from next month’s Clarence House at Ascot. Nicholls had concluded this race was a better fit, reasoning that it allows the horse to join the two-thirds of his string who’ll be having their flu jabs in the coming weeks, ushering in a traditionally quiet period for the stable.

                    Nicholls then plans to use the Game Spirit much as he did the Haldon Gold Cup – as a stepping-stone to the main Grade One target, this time the Champion Chase. He added that he’d only kept the grey “ticking over” since winning the Tingle Creek, implying that he wasn’t at his peak.

                    Of course, this reshaped campaign raises the prospect of Politologue meeting a returning Altior at Newbury – if the latter is fit enough soon enough for a prep run prior to the Festival. In that scenario, one of the two of them is likely to get pushed out in the betting so the current 3/1 for Politologue – or, thinking the unthinkable, 6/4 for Altior – looks a tad skinny right now.

                    Final thought: if it was Sandown’s right-handed orientation that primarily inconvenienced Fox Norton rather than the two-mile trip when half a length second to Politologue in the Tingle Creek and if all is physically well, then he very much does merit an entry in this two-mile contest and 9/1 – twice the best price of his conqueror – is probably too long.

                    Comment


                    • Welcome DBUK.

                      If I could be 100% certain Yorkhill wouldn't run in this race, then Min at 11/2 would be a very, very solid bet still at 11/2.

                      I think Lydia is exactly right when she says Politilouge probably deserves to be shorter - however I wouldn't back Politilogue at his odds now and I would be tempted by Min out of the two.

                      .... because of the slight doubt around target (albeit the target I think is still the most likely) I wouldn't advise anyone to back at the price he is now... hopefully people are on at 12's each way or 8s when it was put up more widely

                      Comment


                      • Just took all the fox norton 24.0 champion chase.
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                        Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

                        Comment


                        • Assistant trainer Joe Tizzard said: "He just came back a bit stiff. He will have a little bit of treatment on his back and will be back for Cheltenham. He had it during last season and he is having it again this season.

                          "He will be entered in the Champion Chase and Ryanair. The Champion Chase looks quite enticing as nobody has seen Altior yet and Douvan has gone. He will get a fast-run two miles, which will play into his hands.
                          https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
                            Assistant trainer Joe Tizzard said: "He just came back a bit stiff. He will have a little bit of treatment on his back and will be back for Cheltenham. He had it during last season and he is having it again this season.

                            "He will be entered in the Champion Chase and Ryanair. The Champion Chase looks quite enticing as nobody has seen Altior yet and Douvan has gone. He will get a fast-run two miles, which will play into his hands.
                            Yet another example of the 4/1 being the worst price of the festival for Fox Norton in the Ryanair.

                            24.0 a good price through Politilogue.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                              Yet another example of the 4/1 being the worst price of the festival for Fox Norton in the Ryanair.

                              24.0 a good price through Politilogue.
                              I still think he should go Ryanair and he would be the likely winner for me but 24.0 is a silly price. He beats politologue 8 times out of 10 for me over 2. And 10/10 over 2m4

                              Gold cup was a free bet anyway thanks to 365 and they're cash out service.
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                              Comment


                              • Yorkhill for this????
                                Owner confirmed he's trying 2m next time out

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