Originally posted by Scooby91
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Champion Hurdle 2018
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Originally posted by Bigfish View PostMy figures have him running 10lb below his first run in November . he will come on a ton for his most recent run
Just out of interest.
It was a poor field 1st time up.
And I do want him or mtoy to win.https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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Originally posted by Bigfish View PostHe hasn't had to so far your right. His prep races he should win as he is the reigning Champion hurdler but not a high class one.
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Originally posted by Scooby91 View PostWhat part of the run is 10 pounds lower? And why?
Just out of interest.
It was a poor field 1st time up.
And I do want him or mtoy to win.Last edited by Bigfish; 25 February 2018, 08:34 PM.
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I will lose my mind if Faugheen does a Sprinter, but I can find no basis in fact or logic to deduce he will do it.
Not to say he wont', but even I, who had Faugheen listed in the thank yous on the order of ceremonies at my wedding, can't find a case for him
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Originally posted by SeanRock View PostNonsense imo, he looks to be hurdling with even better speed than last year. He was gaining a few lengths on TNO at each hurdle at Christmas.
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Originally posted by Bigfish View PostI've taken Jezki form LYO as a guide. He beat Jezki by 17L on his first start back from injury easily. I add to his rating for ease of win +5L. In Faugheens last race beaten by Supasundae , he was only 11L ahead of Jezki. I do the sum and it adds up to a 10lb decrease in performance rating.. phew!https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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Originally posted by robith View PostI will lose my mind if Faugheen does a Sprinter, but I can find no basis in fact or logic to deduce he will do it.
Not to say he wont', but even I, who had Faugheen listed in the thank yous on the order of ceremonies at my wedding, can't find a case for him
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Originally posted by Bigfish View PostHow about a W.Mullins 1-2-3 in this? What are the odds? I really fancy Faugheen, Wicklow Brave and Melon to be ridden to orders and BD will be boxed in ,cut up, taken on at different stages and hassled out of the race . Team tactics will be the order of the day. On all known form Faugheen wins this easily. BD has only beaten MTOY by 5L . and a few GD. 2 /3 horses to date. A fit Faugheen has 8lb in hand I reckon.
MTOY beat Melon when they met... you can argue at the weights Melon would have finished slightly ahead, but BVD is clearly superior to MTOY (5L at least) and Melon is not.....
Therefore I cannot see one piece of form, ever, at any stage, that puts Melon anywhere near being ahead of Buveur D'air.
Wicklow Brave better than Melon? Perhaps...but I don't give either a strong chance of EVER beating MTOY by 5L. SO to say BVD wouldn't be in the first 3 is just impossible to back up....
You have your own rating system... so what do you rate BVD?
IF you gave Faugheen 5L for "doing it easily" .... what does BVD get for also "doing it easily".... because it is hard to argue he hasn't done everything easily in every one of his hurdle starts since switching back!Last edited by Kevloaf; 25 February 2018, 08:49 PM.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostBVD to complete but not be in the first 3 without being pulled up? Genuinly, what odds would you want for the Mullins 1-2-3?
MTOY beat Melon when they met... you can argue at the weights Melon would have finished slightly ahead, but BVD is clearly superior to MTOY (5L at least) and Melon is not.....
Therefore I cannot see one piece of form, ever, at any stage, that puts Melon anywhere near being ahead of Buveur D'air.
Wicklow Brave better than Melon? Perhaps...but I don't give either a strong chance of EVER beating MTOY by 5L.
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Originally posted by Bigfish View PostHi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.
I obviously respect everyones opinion on here and no malice is intended in this.... but if you believe that Melon being beaten by 3L by Labaik in the Supreme is Champion Hurdle winning form because Labaik is a good work horse then we are on different planets.
There are loads of reasons for that, for one... what is Labaik working with that is good enough to beat BVD? EVEN if there is one, there is no actual proof of that being true.
I'll leave that point... and move on to the Melon race - I did think Melon was worth more than that run and will have posted on here at the time... however, he then was brushed aside in the Irish Champion Hurdle...and I now can't forgive either run?
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Originally posted by Bigfish View PostHi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.
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