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Champion Hurdle 2018

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  • Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
    Did faugheen run any worse last time out than his seasonal debut? I think he ran pretty close to that tbh. And people went over board on his 1st run.
    My figures have him running 10lb below his first run in November . he will come on a ton for his most recent run

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    • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
      My figures have him running 10lb below his first run in November . he will come on a ton for his most recent run
      Don't see it myself Buveur D'air hasn't had to come out of 2nd gear yet this season.

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      • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
        Your heart ruling your head possibly BF?
        Not at all SeanRock . I'm passionate but never blinded by the sport that I love.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
          My figures have him running 10lb below his first run in November . he will come on a ton for his most recent run
          What part of the run is 10 pounds lower? And why?
          Just out of interest.

          It was a poor field 1st time up.

          And I do want him or mtoy to win.
          https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
          Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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          • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
            Don't see it myself Buveur D'air hasn't had to come out of 2nd gear yet this season.
            He hasn't had to so far your right. His prep races he should win as he is the reigning Champion hurdler but not a high class one.

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            • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
              He hasn't had to so far your right. His prep races he should win as he is the reigning Champion hurdler but not a high class one.
              Nonsense imo, he looks to be hurdling with even better speed than last year. He was gaining a few lengths on TNO at each hurdle at Christmas.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
                What part of the run is 10 pounds lower? And why?
                Just out of interest.

                It was a poor field 1st time up.

                And I do want him or mtoy to win.
                I've taken Jezki form LTO as a guide. He beat Jezki by 17L on his first start back from injury easily. I add to his rating for ease of win +5L. In Faugheens last race beaten by Supasundae , he was only 11L ahead of Jezki. I do the sum and it adds up to a 10lb decrease in performance rating.. phew!
                Last edited by Bigfish; 25 February 2018, 08:34 PM.

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                • I will lose my mind if Faugheen does a Sprinter, but I can find no basis in fact or logic to deduce he will do it.

                  Not to say he wont', but even I, who had Faugheen listed in the thank yous on the order of ceremonies at my wedding, can't find a case for him

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                  • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
                    Nonsense imo, he looks to be hurdling with even better speed than last year. He was gaining a few lengths on TNO at each hurdle at Christmas.
                    I'm not denying that Buveur Dairs a GD1 horse . He's just not a 4/6 shot and superstar and clear of the field. Faugheen should be!!

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                    • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
                      I've taken Jezki form LYO as a guide. He beat Jezki by 17L on his first start back from injury easily. I add to his rating for ease of win +5L. In Faugheens last race beaten by Supasundae , he was only 11L ahead of Jezki. I do the sum and it adds up to a 10lb decrease in performance rating.. phew!
                      I can't have that personally, as they were completely different races and faugheen was allowed to dictate as his own pace in a small field 1st time up. . but I respect that you have your own way of doing it.
                      https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                      Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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                      • Originally posted by robith View Post
                        I will lose my mind if Faugheen does a Sprinter, but I can find no basis in fact or logic to deduce he will do it.

                        Not to say he wont', but even I, who had Faugheen listed in the thank yous on the order of ceremonies at my wedding, can't find a case for him
                        Brilliant Robith. I bet that got a few blank looks from half the guests

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
                          How about a W.Mullins 1-2-3 in this? What are the odds? I really fancy Faugheen, Wicklow Brave and Melon to be ridden to orders and BD will be boxed in ,cut up, taken on at different stages and hassled out of the race . Team tactics will be the order of the day. On all known form Faugheen wins this easily. BD has only beaten MTOY by 5L . and a few GD. 2 /3 horses to date. A fit Faugheen has 8lb in hand I reckon.
                          BVD to complete but not be in the first 3 without being pulled up? Genuinly, what odds would you want for the Mullins 1-2-3?

                          MTOY beat Melon when they met... you can argue at the weights Melon would have finished slightly ahead, but BVD is clearly superior to MTOY (5L at least) and Melon is not.....

                          Therefore I cannot see one piece of form, ever, at any stage, that puts Melon anywhere near being ahead of Buveur D'air.

                          Wicklow Brave better than Melon? Perhaps...but I don't give either a strong chance of EVER beating MTOY by 5L. SO to say BVD wouldn't be in the first 3 is just impossible to back up....


                          You have your own rating system... so what do you rate BVD?

                          IF you gave Faugheen 5L for "doing it easily" .... what does BVD get for also "doing it easily".... because it is hard to argue he hasn't done everything easily in every one of his hurdle starts since switching back!
                          Last edited by Kevloaf; 25 February 2018, 08:49 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            BVD to complete but not be in the first 3 without being pulled up? Genuinly, what odds would you want for the Mullins 1-2-3?

                            MTOY beat Melon when they met... you can argue at the weights Melon would have finished slightly ahead, but BVD is clearly superior to MTOY (5L at least) and Melon is not.....

                            Therefore I cannot see one piece of form, ever, at any stage, that puts Melon anywhere near being ahead of Buveur D'air.

                            Wicklow Brave better than Melon? Perhaps...but I don't give either a strong chance of EVER beating MTOY by 5L.
                            Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
                              Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.
                              Good glad to hear it.... get stuck in!

                              I obviously respect everyones opinion on here and no malice is intended in this.... but if you believe that Melon being beaten by 3L by Labaik in the Supreme is Champion Hurdle winning form because Labaik is a good work horse then we are on different planets.

                              There are loads of reasons for that, for one... what is Labaik working with that is good enough to beat BVD? EVEN if there is one, there is no actual proof of that being true.

                              I'll leave that point... and move on to the Melon race - I did think Melon was worth more than that run and will have posted on here at the time... however, he then was brushed aside in the Irish Champion Hurdle...and I now can't forgive either run?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Bigfish View Post
                                Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.
                                Melon hasn’t the guts to win around Cheltenham imo. He’s a good traveler but he finds little off the bridle.

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