A friend of mine was at the races last weekend and bumped in to Matt Chapman... in an attempt to get some coversation going he asked what his best bet for Cheltenham was... MC replied "FAUGHEEN - He will be back, mark my words" ... can't think of a better reason to start this seasons Champion Hurdle thread than that!
Market currently (best prices - non exchange) 6th September 2017
4/1 - Buveur D'air
8/1 - Defi Du Seuil
10/1 - Faugheen
12/1 - Yorkhill
20/1 - Apples Jade
20/1 - Limini
20/1 - Labaik
25/1 - Melon
25/1 - Wicklow Brave
33/1 - Charli Parcs
33/1 - Arctic Fire
33/1 - Let's Dance
50/1 - Pingshou
50/1 - John Constable
50/1 - Vroum Vroum Mag
50/1 - My Tent Or Yours
66/1 - Master Blueyes
100/1 - Jenkins
I've taken out the ones that we 'know' are novice chasing/chasing (Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir, Min, River Wylde, Ballyandy) from the list.
The best place to start is obviously last years winner, Buveur D'air. A lot of love for this horse on the forum and rightly so and hasn't been beaten since losing to Altior in that hot-looking Supreme in 2016! A bloodless victory against Rayvin Black after aborting a novice chase campaign did NOT have me purring before Cheltenham last year but in no uncertain terms I was wrong. I've watched the race back 20 odd times at least and he has absolutely hacked up, in the style of a horse much better than anything it was up against. At Aintree it was just as impressive and MTOY gives us such a reliable guide/tool to use to judge the form by in my opinion, with an added bonus of previous CH's). I still think 4/1 is too big considering he has been there, done that.
Now the same can technically be said about Faugheen. He has been there and done it. I love Faugheen. I do think on his day, (and in particular the Irish Champion Hurdle) is as good a performance as I've seen from a 2 mile hurdler. HOWEVER, having lost a FORTUNE ante-post the year Annie Power won, and him not making it on to the race course my head is very much telling me that Faugheen is an absolute ZERO pts job until NRNB is available. I have come to terms with the fact that if Faugheen does 'come back', and does still have the ability, then he'll be too short and at that point, I might be able to leave him alone. The cold and harsh reality, is that the horse will have missed a season and a half and would need to retain ALL his ability to have any sort of advantage on what we know at this stage. Part of me would love to have a secret few pts at 10/1 just in case but at this stage I am strong enough.... despite the musings of Mr Chapman!
As I've mentioned one Mullins horse, I might as well do them all. Let's start with the ones that we KNOW are being aimed at the race... (Min, Limini, VVM, Yorkhill, Melon, WickBrave, ArcFire, Cilaos Emery) - hahaha - just realised that literally not one of them do we KNOW that this is the target. Sums up the perils! Briefly then, I'd be mad keen on the chances of Yorkhill but that may be because I have 2 pts at 20's and you don't get that price about many dual festival winners. His Neptune win alone would give me enough to be encouraged about however (as much as I'd enjoy the debate that has already been touched upon - I know jono in particular wants to see him remain over a fence), we might as well wait a month and see!
Min would have to be in calculations as he finished ahead of BVD in the Supreme before going chasing, however Mullins has said Chasing is Min's aim so he is a no-go. Limini, VVM, Let's Dance all aren't good enough on what I've seen especially when they have a mares race over 2m4f to aim at. I do like WB and AF BUT WB wasn't good enough last season (well beaten 22/1 8th). Arctic Fireobviously has the 2nd to Faugheen in the book and a win in the County Hurdle from top weight, and I could be tempted actually to part with a point on that... MTOY has done no harm for older horses placing in the race. I'll see what people think?
Cilaos Emery and Melon - my usual thoughts when there is no standout horse, and when horses keep beating each other, is that they overall aren't that good a bunch. That'd put me off ANY of the novice hurdlers last season, (even Labaik who is impossible to back ante-post anyway). That is a fairly general statement and I;ll go in to more detail on another post at a later date BUT I will say, the confidence behind Melon being "the best of ours" as Ruby admitted at the festival is worth a second glance. I was disappointed he got turned over at the end of the season in Ireland but he was battling from quite a way out with Pingshou and he beat him off, just got caught and passed late...and Pingshou is no slouch having won at Aintree before-hand. Mullins has said Melon could well be the CH horse this season (posted elsewhere on the forum) AND I specifically remember the quotes from before Cheltenham last year where Mullins said they bought Melon with a view to him being a Champion Hurdler, but he did look like he had scope for a fence. I do think 25/1 for Melon is a pretty fair price for a gamble on him being Ruby's mount! Obviously not wishing Faugheen any bad luck but if Faugheen does get ruled out, 2nd in the Supreme and very lightly raced he does sort of look the only unexposed angle I can really see for connections? I had had 1 pt E/W on Melon at 25s.
At the top of the market, the one I've not mentioned yet is Defi Du Seuil. He'll get hammered most of the season for being a 5yo and I am in that camp (sorry). I think he clearly proved to be the best, most battle hardened 4yo last season but until I see him compete I Will be dubious. I'd actually like the odds of Charli Parcs at 33s compared to DDS but in terms of what DDS has done it is very very very hard to knock. 5 wins at Cheltenham I think and that is without a doubt enough to go on to anyones shortlist! Too short for me by MILES at 8/1 at this stage but I Will keep an open mind and am prepared to take in new evidence!
Some better minds than mine have made cases for John Constable so I'll let them re-post/elaborate if they so desire....Pingshou probably isn't suited to Cheltenham, Apples Jade has the option of the softer race to defend and probably more likely to go UP in trip than down and that leaves.... the NAP - JENKINS. Kidding of course.
My CH book so far:
Yorkhill - 20/1 - 1 pt E/W + 5 pt win any race @ 6/1
Melon - 25/1 - 1 pt E/w + 1pt win
Charli Parcs 33/1 - 0.5 pt E/W
Buveur D'air - 4/1 - 2 pts win
PLUS BVD in 20 pts of Trixies/Yankee's
Market currently (best prices - non exchange) 6th September 2017
4/1 - Buveur D'air
8/1 - Defi Du Seuil
10/1 - Faugheen
12/1 - Yorkhill
20/1 - Apples Jade
20/1 - Limini
20/1 - Labaik
25/1 - Melon
25/1 - Wicklow Brave
33/1 - Charli Parcs
33/1 - Arctic Fire
33/1 - Let's Dance
50/1 - Pingshou
50/1 - John Constable
50/1 - Vroum Vroum Mag
50/1 - My Tent Or Yours
66/1 - Master Blueyes
100/1 - Jenkins
I've taken out the ones that we 'know' are novice chasing/chasing (Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir, Min, River Wylde, Ballyandy) from the list.
The best place to start is obviously last years winner, Buveur D'air. A lot of love for this horse on the forum and rightly so and hasn't been beaten since losing to Altior in that hot-looking Supreme in 2016! A bloodless victory against Rayvin Black after aborting a novice chase campaign did NOT have me purring before Cheltenham last year but in no uncertain terms I was wrong. I've watched the race back 20 odd times at least and he has absolutely hacked up, in the style of a horse much better than anything it was up against. At Aintree it was just as impressive and MTOY gives us such a reliable guide/tool to use to judge the form by in my opinion, with an added bonus of previous CH's). I still think 4/1 is too big considering he has been there, done that.
Now the same can technically be said about Faugheen. He has been there and done it. I love Faugheen. I do think on his day, (and in particular the Irish Champion Hurdle) is as good a performance as I've seen from a 2 mile hurdler. HOWEVER, having lost a FORTUNE ante-post the year Annie Power won, and him not making it on to the race course my head is very much telling me that Faugheen is an absolute ZERO pts job until NRNB is available. I have come to terms with the fact that if Faugheen does 'come back', and does still have the ability, then he'll be too short and at that point, I might be able to leave him alone. The cold and harsh reality, is that the horse will have missed a season and a half and would need to retain ALL his ability to have any sort of advantage on what we know at this stage. Part of me would love to have a secret few pts at 10/1 just in case but at this stage I am strong enough.... despite the musings of Mr Chapman!
As I've mentioned one Mullins horse, I might as well do them all. Let's start with the ones that we KNOW are being aimed at the race... (Min, Limini, VVM, Yorkhill, Melon, WickBrave, ArcFire, Cilaos Emery) - hahaha - just realised that literally not one of them do we KNOW that this is the target. Sums up the perils! Briefly then, I'd be mad keen on the chances of Yorkhill but that may be because I have 2 pts at 20's and you don't get that price about many dual festival winners. His Neptune win alone would give me enough to be encouraged about however (as much as I'd enjoy the debate that has already been touched upon - I know jono in particular wants to see him remain over a fence), we might as well wait a month and see!
Min would have to be in calculations as he finished ahead of BVD in the Supreme before going chasing, however Mullins has said Chasing is Min's aim so he is a no-go. Limini, VVM, Let's Dance all aren't good enough on what I've seen especially when they have a mares race over 2m4f to aim at. I do like WB and AF BUT WB wasn't good enough last season (well beaten 22/1 8th). Arctic Fireobviously has the 2nd to Faugheen in the book and a win in the County Hurdle from top weight, and I could be tempted actually to part with a point on that... MTOY has done no harm for older horses placing in the race. I'll see what people think?
Cilaos Emery and Melon - my usual thoughts when there is no standout horse, and when horses keep beating each other, is that they overall aren't that good a bunch. That'd put me off ANY of the novice hurdlers last season, (even Labaik who is impossible to back ante-post anyway). That is a fairly general statement and I;ll go in to more detail on another post at a later date BUT I will say, the confidence behind Melon being "the best of ours" as Ruby admitted at the festival is worth a second glance. I was disappointed he got turned over at the end of the season in Ireland but he was battling from quite a way out with Pingshou and he beat him off, just got caught and passed late...and Pingshou is no slouch having won at Aintree before-hand. Mullins has said Melon could well be the CH horse this season (posted elsewhere on the forum) AND I specifically remember the quotes from before Cheltenham last year where Mullins said they bought Melon with a view to him being a Champion Hurdler, but he did look like he had scope for a fence. I do think 25/1 for Melon is a pretty fair price for a gamble on him being Ruby's mount! Obviously not wishing Faugheen any bad luck but if Faugheen does get ruled out, 2nd in the Supreme and very lightly raced he does sort of look the only unexposed angle I can really see for connections? I had had 1 pt E/W on Melon at 25s.
At the top of the market, the one I've not mentioned yet is Defi Du Seuil. He'll get hammered most of the season for being a 5yo and I am in that camp (sorry). I think he clearly proved to be the best, most battle hardened 4yo last season but until I see him compete I Will be dubious. I'd actually like the odds of Charli Parcs at 33s compared to DDS but in terms of what DDS has done it is very very very hard to knock. 5 wins at Cheltenham I think and that is without a doubt enough to go on to anyones shortlist! Too short for me by MILES at 8/1 at this stage but I Will keep an open mind and am prepared to take in new evidence!
Some better minds than mine have made cases for John Constable so I'll let them re-post/elaborate if they so desire....Pingshou probably isn't suited to Cheltenham, Apples Jade has the option of the softer race to defend and probably more likely to go UP in trip than down and that leaves.... the NAP - JENKINS. Kidding of course.
My CH book so far:
Yorkhill - 20/1 - 1 pt E/W + 5 pt win any race @ 6/1
Melon - 25/1 - 1 pt E/w + 1pt win
Charli Parcs 33/1 - 0.5 pt E/W
Buveur D'air - 4/1 - 2 pts win
PLUS BVD in 20 pts of Trixies/Yankee's
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