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  1. #21
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    Faugheen is back , well id want to see him in action first. Risk with that , you just know his current odds would evaporate quicker than Rooneys waistline.

    Melon could be of interest , listening to the vibes he looks like he grown and matured.

    The one for me at this very early stage is Defi , looked potentially a little special last year , with normal amount of improvement from 4 to 5 year old he could make the jump. Also why would McManus keep him to hurdles when he already got the champion hurdler , it just doesnt make sense ,its not like he needs the money. I can only assume its because they think Defi is better.

  2. #22
    I'm waiting for the day before the Morgiana or whichever race Faugheen gets declared for before I pull the trigger antepost. I think many of us have built a decent position about Buv and theres only one horse imo who could beat him - Faugheen. I just cant part with cash on him until we know for certain hes good to go. I don't see him getting declared for any race either unless they know hes ready to go ability as well as fitness wise. They wont get him to lineup if they know hes showing nothing at home. He can get beat for fitness first time out, like against Nichols a couple of years back but i'd expect to see a decent showing.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by The Beast View Post

    The one for me at this very early stage is Defi , looked potentially a little special last year , with normal amount of improvement from 4 to 5 year old he could make the jump. Also why would McManus keep him to hurdles when he already got the champion hurdler , it just doesnt make sense ,its not like he needs the money. I can only assume its because they think Defi is better.
    Defi is still a young horse coming from the juvenile ranks. A year of hurdling while he strengthens up would do no harm imo. Nothing to lose by having a crack at the champion hurdle and if hes not up to it then go chasing next season at the usual age horses go chasing. Its the horses coming out of the supreme/Neptune who spend an extra year hurdling after that that I look down on more for their chances when it comes to chasing. Horses like Yanworth.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingSprinterSacre View Post
    I'm waiting for the day before the Morgiana or whichever race Faugheen gets declared for before I pull the trigger antepost. I think many of us have built a decent position about Buv and theres only one horse imo who could beat him - Faugheen. I just cant part with cash on him until we know for certain hes good to go. I don't see him getting declared for any race either unless they know hes ready to go ability as well as fitness wise. They wont get him to lineup if they know hes showing nothing at home. He can get beat for fitness first time out, like against Nichols a couple of years back but i'd expect to see a decent showing.
    I agree with every word of that. I am making sure I don't have anything on. IF Faugheen is still in the running, when NRNB comes around, I will have to re-adjust my position and a lot of the BvD multiples will not be looking as good as I think they do now.... BUT, I have lost enough on Faugheen since 2015 to make the same mistake for a third time!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by KingSprinterSacre View Post
    Defi is still a young horse coming from the juvenile ranks. A year of hurdling while he strengthens up would do no harm imo. Nothing to lose by having a crack at the champion hurdle and if hes not up to it then go chasing next season at the usual age horses go chasing. Its the horses coming out of the supreme/Neptune who spend an extra year hurdling after that that I look down on more for their chances when it comes to chasing. Horses like Yanworth.
    I think DDS deserves respect on his Cheltenham record alone, but the price is too short for me to even think about backing him. I am also a little wary he won't have as much improvement between 4 and 5 as many people think... he had such a busy campaign that it strikes me that he was very forward for his age, and others MAY catch up this year... and if that was the case I'd want a much bigger price than 8/1

  5. #25
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    For me, despite splitting my win stakes between BD & Faugheen, I feel the most overpriced horse in the market currently is Arctic Fire. Currently a 33/1 shot, his form at Cheltenham reads 2-2-1, his first run at Cheltenham was a 2nd, which given the nature of the course you could easily excuse a poor run, but it wasn't, it ended up being only 1/2 length defeat. His second run at the track, again another 2nd but this time it was to Faugheen (and also finished 5 lengths ahead of Hurricane Fly (legend)), enough said really, although he is the closest finisher of any rival to Faugheen in his career, bar that one 'odd' loss. His last run, we probably can all remember clearly, taking the County Hurdle off top weight, something you have to go back to the early 60's for to find the last horse that done that, incredible, and thoroughly deserved win at the festival for Arctic Fire.

    All in all, his Cheltenham form is better than many, extremely solid looking and warrants plenty of respect. 33/1 is massively overpricing him, given that the market is likely to fall apart like it normally does for this race. As with MTOY this year, Arctic Fire will be my longshot play until the price heads below 20/1.

  6. #26
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    Given that there's only been one 5yo winner in over 30 years (and that one was having his 29th race), I can quite easily forego a single figure price for DDS at this stage.

    Bunk Off Early is back in the yard after a successful operation for the problem that was maybe the cause of his disappointing runs at Cheltenham and Punchestown. Hopefully out towards the end of the year.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    For me, despite splitting my win stakes between BD & Faugheen, I feel the most overpriced horse in the market currently is Arctic Fire. Currently a 33/1 shot, his form at Cheltenham reads 2-2-1, his first run at Cheltenham was a 2nd, which given the nature of the course you could easily excuse a poor run, but it wasn't, it ended up being only 1/2 length defeat. His second run at the track, again another 2nd but this time it was to Faugheen (and also finished 5 lengths ahead of Hurricane Fly (legend)), enough said really, although he is the closest finisher of any rival to Faugheen in his career, bar that one 'odd' loss. His last run, we probably can all remember clearly, taking the County Hurdle off top weight, something you have to go back to the early 60's for to find the last horse that done that, incredible, and thoroughly deserved win at the festival for Arctic Fire.

    All in all, his Cheltenham form is better than many, extremely solid looking and warrants plenty of respect. 33/1 is massively overpricing him, given that the market is likely to fall apart like it normally does for this race. As with MTOY this year, Arctic Fire will be my longshot play until the price heads below 20/1.
    Agreed COD
    Whilst I have been chipping away at BVD, I have also backed Arctic Fire at 33's a few weeks back.
    Not only did he win the County off top weight, but that was his first run of the season.

    Given a full and uninterrupted prep - there are much worse bets out there...

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leman14 View Post
    Agreed COD
    Whilst I have been chipping away at BVD, I have also backed Arctic Fire at 33's a few weeks back.
    Not only did he win the County off top weight, but that was his first run of the season.

    Given a full and uninterrupted prep - there are much worse bets out there...
    Sorry Leman, I've literally just this second read your original post on page one of this thread, I could have basically quoted that and agreed rather than wrote the long winded explanation above haha!

    Glad I'm not alone with AF though

  9. #29
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    No problem - most of my posts are probably "agreeing" with posts made pages beforehand without realising!
    Easy to get lost amongst the excellent volume of posts

  10. #30
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    So when speaking to Mark Howard in August, Graham Wylie states Yorkhill is a better hurdler than a chaser, though it's still not certain on hurdles or fences yet.

    Personally (not that my opinion has any weight behind it compared to Mr Wylie and co) is he would be best over fences. Following the brief mention of Yorkhill in the Gold Cup chat with the Ruby Walsh article Kev put up I had hoped and actually expected for GW to come out and say he hopes he can still be a Gold Cup horse.

    I imagine the yard will wait and see come the Morgiana to decide on both horses targets. If Faugheen is fit, well and healthy and has a good comeback run then I just cannot see how they keep Yorkhill over hurdles. There's no middle distance hurdle race at the festival to split them up. Douvan, Faugheen and Yorkhill are THE 3 stable stars. No chance Ruby will bypass riding one of them imo.

    If Faugheen has a setback though, then I think they put Yorkhill into the mix (though being right handed the Morgiana would'nt be ideal for him) and they really then have to start thinking aside of Faugheen and see him as a bonus. There's an easy way for them to avoid eachother in the build up to the festival with Faugheen going to Kempton and Yorkhill running in the 2 Leopardstown races. But again the idea that they'll both lineup for the CH come March is impossible for him to envisage.

    Ruby is confident on Faugheen as you expect him to be though I still cannot put a single penny on Faugheen right now and echo most on here where although you take the reduced price you just have to wait and see him race again. I may have a bet just before his comeback run or in running for the CH but that's the earliest i'd side with regardless of how much positivity there is. I'm pretty sure Ruby came out in an RUK interview last year saying how well he looked only a day later for him to be ruled out injured?!

    Saying that it does make me hold off investing anymore on Buveur D'Air! Though I still think he will have a big chance against Faugheen/Yorkhill in March, having 8pts on him winning and circa 14pts in multiples Is more than enough now and if one or both of the Mullins horses do line up against him his task becomes much harder.

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