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Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle 2013

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  • #31
    Taquin De Seuil Pricewised. McCoy rides according to some bloke at Warwick Preview.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Yeehaa View Post
      Taquin De Seuil Pricewised. McCoy rides according to some bloke at Warwick Preview.
      I'd say Defy Logic wont go so McCoy clear to ride TDS. Paul Nolan on Defy Logic after Naas:

      A decision on whether Defy Logic takes up his one entry at Cheltenham, in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, has yet to be decided.

      "He's 100%. We were disappointed to be beaten, but he's come up against something probably special," said Nolan.

      "I still think we have a very nice horse on our hands and we are looking forward to putting him over a fence later on.

      "We haven't spoken about Cheltenham yet, so I don't really know. We just want to get him to settle a bit better and get him to drop his head a bit.

      "We will be looking at Fairyhouse and Punchestown if he doesn't go to Cheltenham. We will wait a couple of days to see what we do."

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      • #33
        Reading Preview notes think the new one is an each way good thing for this

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        • #34
          Pont Alexandre confirmed for this race in RP today posted it on his thread http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...up-Winner-2015

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          • #35
            Good Blog from Declan Rix




            The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle has a pristine roll of honour that includes some of the greats of National Hunt racing. A race for young, up and coming types it’s been a stepping stone on to bigger and better things, for hurdlers and chasers. Not only have past winners like Istabraq and Hardy Eustace returned to score at later festivals, but the likes of Denman and Rock On Ruby, both of whom were runners-up here, too came back to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle, respectively. There’s a fair chance the winner or a couple of those in behind will go on and operate at the very highest level. In terms of stats don’t look any further than five and six year olds. You have to go back as far as 1998 for the last seven-year-old winner and, 1991 was the last four-year-old to score. Since 1998 three seven-year-olds have been placed. In terms of trainers Willie Mullins has to be feared most of all handlers along with the Irish challenge in general.

            The 2013 Neptune received 119 entries and a whole host of classy names are in the pot. That’s not surprising given the prestige of the race, along with the intermediate trip too. It gives horses options depending on contrasting ground conditions. A number of those that figure prominently in the Supreme and Albert Bartlett markets are too in here so it makes sense to get rid of highly unlikely and doubtful runners first.

            Of those that figure to the fore in the betting Champagne Fever looks like he is Supreme bound. His connections are represented by the hot favourite in Pont Alexandre so unless the latter meets with a setback you can scratch the former from here. The J.P McManus owned At Fishers Cross looks like he’ll run in the Albert Bartlett, if he comes to Cheltenham and so is not considered. Melodic Rendezvous has yet to try a trip remotely in the region of two miles five furlongs and given his pedigree looks quite speedy it would be a massive risk by connections to run here. The Supreme looks his race. Overall, I’m not quite sure he’s good enough anyway. The next five in the market are Un Atout (Supreme), Chatterbox (may skip festival), Defy Logic (well beaten recently), Annie Power (will miss festival) and Ballycasey (Albert Bartlett bound) look highly unlikely they’ll run. After this we really are looking at fancy prices and given the race’s history big prices are not the way to go.

            Realistically then we have just five horses to consider. Those being Pont Alexandre, The New One, Rule The World, Taquin Du Seuil and Puffin Billy. We’ll start with the latter first.

            Oliver Sherwood’s Puffin Billy is arguably a little unlucky not to be unbeaten in five career starts. Two bumper and two hurdle events have been won in facile fashion before the son of Heron Island lost his unbeaten tag last time out. Post race he was found to be lame by the on course vet and upon returning home, puss was extracted from his foot. Many will feel its just connections offering excuses for their top prospect getting turned over, but given the ease he came off the bridle, in comparison to previous races, and him jumping to the right up the straight, I think it’s plausible. Before his odds on defeat the handicapper had him down as a 150 horse which I felt was a little bit flattering. The races he has won were all done in good style, but it’s not exactly Grade One form. Jumping wise he is safe in the main, but he can give the top bar a rattle while racing. It’s safe though and no serious error has been recorded. Another thing to note of Puffin Billy is how keen he runs in his races. He can be quite a handful and even a bit buzzy. You’d have to wonder if the whole Cheltenham occasion would suit him. This is something Barry Geraghty has his reservations about. And while his pedigree suggests middle distances will suit the now five-year-old hasn’t raced over the Neptune trip over hurdles. All the above coupled with his recent setback means he’s not a sensible bet. He too, still has a Supreme entry and there must be a small chance of him missing Cheltenham altogether given his recent problems. And so, we’ll move on.

            Four remain, two from Great Britain and two from Ireland. Above we singled out Willie Mullins as a trainer to note in this race together with the Irish challenge in general. This year the general part revolves around Mouse Morris who too has good history in the Neptune. Mouse’s last three runners here have finished first, second and fourth and in the confidently named Rule The World he looks to have another strong contender. This son of former top flat operator Sulamani was picked up for €90,000 by Morris who was subsequently sold on to Gigginstown House Stud (A good sign that). A sole win between the Irish flags saw him justify 6-4 favourtism on debut under rules, in a poor Punchestown maiden. It wasn’t a great race, but he was by far the best horse. Then pitched into Grade Three company on the third start of his whole career he showed plenty of ability to just get headed close home where maybe inexperience cost him. A low grade novice event was then won in workmanlike fashion, but to be fair to the horse he beat a 150 rated chaser, giving him weight. He finally started living up to his name when winning the Grade Two Slaney Novice Hurdle on his next start. In the end he won by 16 lengths from a solid yard stick in Minsk, but there is no doubt he’s flattered by the bare performance. The red hot favourite Champagne Fever never ran his race, feeling the effects of an infection, while the second horse, Minsk, took Champagne Fever on very early allowing the race to fall into the lap of Rule The World somewhat. While Minsk is a decent animal given his optimum conditions he certainly isn’t a Grade One or Grade Two horse yet. On the positive side of things though Davy Russell’s intended mount does jump well in the main. He seems to be improving and represents the 2011 winning connections of this race, but I find his form a little hard to weigh up. His pedigree and action, to a certain degree, seem to indicate that soft ground is what he wants so he does have a few questions to answer.

            Jonjo O’Neill’s recent history shows him to be a solid trainer of chasers, but in Taquin Du Seuil he’ll be hoping to turn back the hurdling clock by winning his first Grade One hurdle event at the festival since the 2004 Stayers Hurdle. This French import and former flat racer has been one of the finds of the season from the French flat racing scene. A son of Voix Du Nord he had just the one win on the level, but kept decent handicap company in his time in France. I haven’t seen his official flat rating, but it would be somewhere in the region of the early to mid eighties. So, all things considered not a bad animal at all. After a year off the track he managed to win his maiden at Uttoxeter on debut in good style from a regarded horse of Charlie Longsdon’s. A month later he had the impossible task, we now know, of trying to concede a penalty to the current Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite, My Tent Or Yours. He gave the Betfair Hurdle victor a race however, but just couldn’t live with his speed close home. Since that run though, he’s gone on to bag a Grade Two at Sandown and a Grade One at Newbury, the Challow Hurdle, in fine style. His Sandown win was a cruise in soft ground while he had to work that bit harder to score, as you would expect, at Newbury. The raw form of his last two wins doesn’t look as solid as the My Tent Or Yours run, but both have been won in good fashion. His jumping throughout has been good although he looked real novicey at stages at Newbury. A little worrying this given it was his latest run. I’m willing to put that down to the terrible ground though as beforehand he has jumped well. Many feel proper soft ground is what he needs, but good to soft spring ground will be fine. The run against My Tent Or Yours was on decent ground and plenty of his French flat form has been on faster flat terrain. His sire’s blood line has a few good to firm flat winners thrown in too so it’s not ground that will beat him at Cheltenham. The stable haven’t confirmed him for this race, but it looks the logical one for him. Is one of the yard’s most interesting runners during the week, no doubt. ..continued...

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            • #36
              Second favourite is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ The New One. As a four-year-old he was one of the top bumper performers last season finishing a slightly unlucky sixth in the Cheltenham edition before going on to score at Aintree, from My Tent Or Yours. While bumper winners tend to show stamina later in their career’s The New One obviously possesses plenty raw speed. My Tent Or Yours is very much a speed horse and to beat him at a flat track like Aintree is fair going. While My Tent Or Yours has obviously improved this season the form of that run, and indeed his Cheltenham Bumper run, looks solid. There was plenty hope that jumping hurdles would suit The New One given his national hunt pedigree. Connections decided to get him started early and on debut he won in facile fashion at Newton Abbot. Considering it was he debut he jumped fine and it was a highly satisfactory start. From here he went to Cheltenham, where he carried a penalty to beat a horse of Philip Hobbs’ who had solid bumper form. Once more he jumped fine, but did meet the second last all wrong before coming back on to the bridle. The first two home put over 20 lengths back to the remainder giving the form a solid look to it. No appearance at the November Paddy Power meeting meant fans were worried about his well-being. A “minor setback” was confirmed before he graced the course again, at Warwick. Another facile win from decent rivals was seen as Sam Twiston-Davies let his mount stride on a long way from home and he simply grounded his rivals into submission. An improved performance in jumping was also seen. His last run came on Cheltenham Trials Day when he met defeat for just the second time in his life. Although beaten he moved like the best horse in the race. On ground he would have hated and, the winner thrived, he showed a good turn of foot before ultimately being outstayed. Sam Twiston-Davies blames himself for the loss and I’d be inclined to agree with that. It’s not a bad opinion of Sam, it happens – better it did here rather than Cheltenham in March.

              Finally of the quintet, Pont Alexandre is the race favourite. Before this campaign very few even knew who he was. Willie Mullins was once again busy in France during the summer and acquired this well made five-year-old. After seeing him in the flesh Mullins said he wanted him bought at any cost. I’m not sure what he paid for the son of Dai Jin, but it’s bound to a hefty six figure sum. As I said not much was known about this French recruit so it was a huge surprise to see Mullins declare him for the Grade One Navan Novice Hurdle on debut. On top of this he was a well backed runner for the race. If I remember he was available at 7-1 in the morning, but returned 3-1 on track. In the end he ran out an impressive winner from a 140 rated three mile chaser in the making. The highly regarded, well touted Don Cossack was booked for second when tipping up at the final flight. Given Don Cossack was brushed aside so easily, at the time it looked top class form, but “The Don” has proved most disappointing since. On a more positive note though Pont Alexandre won a Grade One on debut on only his second start of his career. His jumping was good in the main if a bit novicey when the race started in earnest. I also noticed he jumped slightly out to his right at times. The Rich Ricci owned gelding then went on to score again next time out in a Grade Two contest. Like the first day, he was given an easy time up front and went on to win in good fashion from 128 and 137 rated rivals. Again he was visually impressive, but it’s worth noting the rating on the second horse while the third has already proved to be a dour stayer. His jumping again was good without being perfect, but he looks accomplished in this department. He ticks plenty of the boxes for the Neptune, but I get the feeling he’s priced up on his connections rather than his form. Given Ruby Walsh’s style of riding, can we categorically say, to put it in lay mans terms; Pont Alexandre can go a whole lot faster? Both trainer and jockey haven’t hidden their admiration for the horse and it’s just this he may be priced up on. Other questions need answering too mind, like, will he go on faster ground after his two heavy ground wins? He has no course experience either. Furthermore, he’s been given an easy time to set his own fractions up front in both races and like it or not, he does lack experience in big fields and experience in general. A horse of undoubted promise, a real chaser in the making, but doubts still linger for me.

              Verdict

              With so many horses not guaranteed to run in the Neptune it looks like we have five viable options for an ante-post bet. Of the five, Puffin Billy, who is now a confirmed runner in the race will be first cut. While he’s a horse I like his interrupted preparation is a concern. To be honest, there are other worries too, like, how will this buzzy type handle the whole occasion? Will this cause him to once again race with the choke out? If so, you’d have to say his chances of staying a trip he has never run over would decrease. Next we come to the ‘big four’. Pont Alexandre, The New One, Taquin Du Seuil and Rule The World. Of the four Pont Alexandre has to be taken on at the prices. While undoubtedly being a potential top class staying chaser in the making, that’s all it is currently, potential. Not for one second am I saying he won’t win, not at all. He’s with a top class team; owner, trainer and jockey. The manner of his victories is very hard to dismiss, but the bare form means, for me, he’s priced up on connections. It’s hard to get away from the fact he has no big field experience and has got the run of the race in his two starts. No course experience is also something to note. Ability to handle better ground is another imponderable too. If the talk is right and he handles all the above he’ll take all the beating, but at the prices an each-way alternative will be sought. Taquin Du Seuil was high on my list and I think he would’ve got the nod, but sadly before this blog went live, he was ‘Pricewised’. The value now looks gone and a selection will come from either The New One or the Irish raider, Rule The World. The New One with solid course form looks the obvious one of the two, but is priced up accordingly. He’s a full six points shorter than the Irish raider and given Rule The World still offers hope of improvement he’ll have to get the nod at the prices. While there is no doubt he was flattered by his the distance of his latest win there still must be room for improvement. A strong pace obviously suited him this day as he settled and jumped well going on to win easily. Looking back at the race now he won it easily, very much on the bridle, as Davy Russell sat motionless up the home straight. Mouse Morris has a terrific record in this race and while we know it’s tough to win at Cheltenham off an extended break, Morris has always used this tried and tested method to good effect. The only worries are good ground (and a lack of course experience) which he has no form on, but connections feel he’ll improve for it so that is a positive.

              Advice: 1pt each-way Rule The World @10-1 (Paddy Power, William Hill)

              Comment


              • #37
                Mordin ( after Naas beaten by Annie Power)

                Tony McCoy on DEFY LOGIC (40) had ridden a canny race, setting a fair pace but saving enough to produce a tremendous surge from two out that would have routed most fields. Indeed he'd won his previous two starts by 34 and 35 lengths.

                Defy Logic was rather keen and clearly wanted to go a bit faster early, so I'm going to excuse the fact he raced with his head rather high. I got the impression that perhaps he was disliking the hood he was wearing. But he suffered his only previous loss the sole time he wasn't equipped with headgear, so no doubt there's a reason for it.

                Defy Logic is built and bred for longer than the two miles of this race and has already won over two and a quarter miles. Given his build and the fact he's by Flemensfirth it's tempting to suppose he won't be good enough to win a Grade 1 until he switches to fences. But he's awfully pacey and Flemensfirth has produced three Grade 1 winning hurdlers in Backspin, Muirhead and Pandorama. So I wouldn't discount his chances of winning the Neptune on that score.

                In fact Defy Logic now ranks as joint fastest on my ratings of all the likely Neptune runners along with the favourite Pont Alexandre. But he's clearly got a better turn of foot than that one so I have to rate his chance very highly. I'm therefore surprised to see a couple of bookies still offering him at 25-1 for Cheltenham.

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                • #38
                  A bit more about Taquin De Seuil on our Johnjo O'neill profile http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-...jo-O-Neill-138

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                  • #39
                    Pony Alexandre will be major punt tomorrow
                    Last edited by Old Vic; 13 March 2013, 08:43 AM.

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                    • #40
                      My first ride of the day is CHATTERBOX who will make a bold show in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (2.05), a race which has cut up.

                      I feel that this step up to 2m 5f will play to his strengths because he’s won twice on heavy ground – beating My Tent Or Yours on the first of them – and he’s a horse that has never shown a lot of speed at home.

                      So if he’d run in the Supreme and got outpaced then you’d be kicking yourself. As for the Neptune, with the exception of Pont Alexandre, it might just lack strength in depth which leaves the door open.

                      I’m prepared to accept that Pont Alexandre could be a bit special but take him out of the equation and the race is there to be won.

                      I rode Taquin Du Seuil to be second to My Tent Or Yours and although he’s a nice horse, I wouldn’t be running scared of him – he's more a chaser in the making.

                      And just because Chatterbox has won on heavy ground doesn’t mean that he needs it slow. I think he’s a definite chance of being in the shake-up.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Jessica Harrington

                        As for today, Pont Alexandre is one of my bankers of the meeting. His form is rock solid and I can’t see any holes in it. I think the Irish form is superior to the English and he’ll just prove far too strong for them.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Mordin

                          NEPTUNE A RED HOT RACE

                          Sectional times suggest that the Neptune Novices Hurdle was a red hot race this year. The way the field picked up from the fifth last was pretty remarkable. The novices gained 5.27 seconds on the handicappers from this point.

                          The winner was THE NEW ONE (35-pace adjusted 42) who picked up really well to score by four lengths.

                          The New One is an athletic sort that clearly has a smart turn of foot. If he hadn't run green at Cheltenham last year and idled when losing narrowly in his prep for this he might well have won all his nine starts to date. I can now see why he was able to beat the smart My Tent Or Yours into second in last year's Aintree Festival Bumper. He clearly has plenty of speed. So the plan to cut him back to two miles next season and shoot for the Champion Hurdle makes perfect sense. Meanwhile it would be fascinating to see him tackle Annie Power, the best two mile novice hurdler on my ratings.

                          Runner up RULE THE WORLD (41) is more of a staying type than the winner. So he cannot have been as well suited to the way the race was run. His sire Sulamani has yet to have a runner over fences but Rule The World continues to look a good prospect for the bigger jumps.

                          Third placed PONT ALEXANDRE (39) has a lot of ability but lacks a serious turn of foot. So he too cannot have been best suited by the quickening pace from five out and the near sprint finish from two out. He's already shown that he can stand off and produce a bold jump over a hurdle. This will stand him in good stead when he goes chasing next season.

                          CHATTERBOX (38) lost his unbeaten record but ran up to his best to take fourth. His dam is a half sister to RSA Chase fourth Unioniste and scored her only win in a two and a half mile chase. No doubt this is the route Chatterbox will be taking next term.

                          MISK (37) keeps running well in big novice hurdles but has yet to earn anything better than a Listed class rating from me. Sixth placed TAQUIN DU SEUIL (37) on the other hand has earned bigger ratings from me. The near sprint finish was probably not helpful for him as he's a proper stayer. He's another that looks a good prospect for novice chases next term.

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