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  1. #1
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Guinness Kerry National 2012

    Couple from my long term short list entered in Malton in Killarney this weekend. The old Denny at Tralee used to give us more of a steer but since meeting moved to Killarney race not working out as well. The 2011 trends from racecaller below. Haven't heard anything about Alfa beat this year . Is he injured ?

  2. #2
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    See you added some since but here is racecallers from last year forgot to post yesterday ...not sure you would have founf Alfa Beat with them..though Geraghty and returning horses trend is strong.

    The Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase takes place on Wednesday 14th September and is the highlight of the 7-day Listowel Festival. It is a 3 mile Grade A handicap chase that has been won by some useful chasers in the past, including subsequent Grand National winner, Monty’s Pass, in 2002.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    5yo: 0-0-1

    6yo: 2-1-14

    7yo: 3-6-32

    8yo: 2-8-49

    9yo: 3-10-47

    10yo+: 0-4-28

    Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.

    No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).



    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

    Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56

    Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115

    Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.

    Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)



    Official Ratings

    Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85

    Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86

    Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners.



    Recent/Past Form

    7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)

    7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

    9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

    8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences

    10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

    9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further

    7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+

    9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase

    7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 of 3 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)

    5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles



    Other Races

    Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5)

    Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)

    Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)

    www.themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)

    McSweeney Arms Hcap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)

    4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665

    2 of 10 winners ran in Leopardstown's Paddy Power Chase, finishing 70

    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Munster National, finishing 34

    5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404



    Trainers

    Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.

    Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.

    Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.

    British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.



    Jockeys

    Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, winning 4 of the last 7 renewals.

    Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.



    Price

    8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1

    7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.

    Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.



    Summary:

    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    Aged 6 to 9

    Carrying 10-10 or more

    Officially rated 126 or higher

    Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)

    Ran over hurdles last time out

    Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

    Second or third season chaser

    Won over 2M 3F+

    Won a chase worth 12K+

    Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival

    Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival

    First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National

    Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin

    Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty

    Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)

  3. #3
    Denny winners had a good record In Kerry National Montys, Euroleader, Botha Na all followed up in last decade if my memory isnt failing me. Not sure there is a similar race in Killarney now ...nothing for the same money over jumps anyway.

  4. #4

    Wellforth

    Paul Gilligan has another festival date in mind for Wellforth following last week's Galway success before he can start thinking even bigger.

    It has been a busy summer for the eight-year-old, who won at Uttoxeter in June before returning for a third-placed finish at Ffos Las as well as competing across Ireland.

    He even fitted in two visits to Ballybrit, taking fourth in Tuesday's Latin Quarter Chase and getting his head in front in the Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase on Friday night.

    "He put in a good run on Tuesday before doing the business later in the week and he's come back 100% - not a bother on him," said Gilligan, who trains in County Galway at Athenry.

    "It's possible he'll go to the Kerry National (Listowel, September 12) now, and I'd love to try to win the English National.

    "There's a long way to go before then, but his jumping always keeps him in races and if ever he's going to get in off a decent weight, it might be next year."

    Wellforth has recently acquired a new owner, Uttoxeter-based equine therapist Clare Ellam.

    Gilligan said: "I've known the owner for a year or so, and she treats some of the horses backs. I'd imagine the horse would go over to her after the Kerry National and we'll see how he is. I'm delighted he's won for her already."

  5. #5
    THE Kerry National at Listowel could be the next port of call for Casey Top following his excellent effort in Wednesday's Galway Plate.

    Len Whitmore's nine-year-old set out to make all the running in the hands of Paul Townend (pictured) having won on his previous start at Killarney in May and only gave best late on to the eventual winner, Bob Lingo.

    Casey Top finished a clear-cut second and Whitmore is hoping that he can register a deserved big-race victory before too long.

    "He ran a cracker and he did it the hard way. I thought he might have it at one stage and it would have been hard to take if he'd been beaten a neck or a head, but he was beaten five lengths and beaten fair and square in the end," said Whitmore.

    "He handled the ground well and he had a light weight on his back, so that probably helped with the way conditions were.

    "A tight track like Galway probably suits him as well, so there are a number of reasons why he ran so well.

    "It was only his second run this summer, so we'll keep going with him.

    "I hope the handicapper doesn't put him up too much as he's only a handy horse and he wouldn't want to carry a lot of weight.

    "We'll try and find another big handicap for him now, something like the Kerry National could suit."

  6. #6
    Yeehaa
    Guest
    A tilt at the Guinness Kerry National in Listowel is on the cards for the Philip Fenton-trained Caim Hill following his gutsy victory in the Castleview Homes Mullacurry Cup Handicap Hurdle in Bellewstown last evening.

    The versatile nine-year-old, ridden by Brian O’Connell, held the late challenge of Cnoc Na Sioga by a length and a quarter and delighted his trainer, who commented: "He ran no sort of race in Galway — I still don’t know why. But Brian said he was enjoying himself all the way today."

    "He’s been a good money-spinner and is very versatile. He’ll go back over fences now. I think we’ll have a crack at the Kerry National."

  7. #7
    Haley
    Guest
    David Pipe is the sole British trainer with an entry in this month's Guinness Kerry National, to be run at Listowel on Wednesday, September 19th.

    The 10-year-old Premier Dane has won all three of his starts since joining the Pipe yard earlier this year, most reently when hacking up in a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot yesterday under A.P. McCoy.

    Formerly trained by Nicky Richards, Premier Dane has been alloted just 9st 10lb in the Kerry National and looks certain to get a place in the line-up if declared as he needs just three defectors from those above him to make the cut.

    His Irish rating of 129 is just 5lb above the mark he raced off when winning a Stratford Handicap Chase last month.

    The top weight is multiple Grade 1 scorer Follow The Plan and he is 6lb clear of the locally-trained Forpadydeplasterer.

    Other interesting entries include Cross Appeal (Noel Meade) and the Pat Hughes-trained Caduceus. Oddly, Willie Mullins has just one entry - Themoonandsixpence, who has not raced since finishing second in the 2010 Galway Plate.

    Paddy Power: 8 Casey Top, Premier Dane, 10 Out Now, Caduceus, Cross Appeal, 12 Wellforth, Themoonandsixpence, Devil's Elbow, Daffern Seal, Alpine Eagle, Muirhead, 14 Carlito Brigante, 16 Nearest The Pin, Forpadydeplasterer, Fosters Cross, Shinrock Paddy, Questions Answered, Start Me Up, 20 Gala Dancer, Whodoyouythink, Campbonnais, Ponmeoath, King Ali, Shabra Charity, Jamsie Hall, Our Victoria, Follow The Plan, Deal Done, 25 Lenabane, Finger Onthe Pulse, 33 Healys Bar, Save My Blushes, Faltering Fullback

  8. #8
    Sefton
    Guest
    From statto's links ...

    Dosage classes range from brilliant -a sire noted for getting top-quality sprinters- to professional -a sire noted for getting horses to run in the top races at long distances. The five classes are Brillant Intermediate Classic Solid Professional.

    FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) b. G, 2002 DP = 5-1-8-4-0 (18) DI = 1.25 CD = 0.39 - 22 Starts, 5 Wins, 12 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: 428,603

    So more speed than stamina. He is tricky one to work out. Was any horse ever second in more Grade 1s ? 9 here ...

    2nd: 2008 FUTURE CHAMPIONS NOVICE HURDLE (IRE-G1), 2009 ARKLE NOVICE CHACE (IRE-G1), 2009 DR. P.J. MORIARTY NOVICE CHASE (IRE-G1), 2009 CATHAL RYAN MEMORIAL NOVICE CHASE (IRE-G1), 2009 TINGLE CREEK CHASE (GB-G1), 2010 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (GB-G1), 2010 JOHN SMITH'S MELLING CHASE (GB-G1), 2010 CHAMPION CHASE (IRE-G1), 2011 PADDY POWER DIAL-A-BET CHASE (IRE-G1)
    Last edited by Sefton; 09-10-2012 at 01:27 PM.

  9. #9
    Sefton
    Guest
    Previous Kerry National Winners Dosage...Ponmeoath only had 1 point for professional but others seem to have had staying pedigrees ...


    ALFA BEAT (IRE) gr. G, 2004 DP = 1-3-14-0-4 (22) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.14 - 27 Starts, 7 Wins, 0 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: 214,199

    PONMEOATH (IRE) b. G, 2000 DP = 3-3-5-0-1 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.58 - 43 Starts, 5 Wins, 9 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: 189,039

    EURO LEADER (IRE) b. G, 1998 DP = 5-4-5-4-4 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.09 - 23 Starts, 11 Wins, 3 Places, 1 Shows

    BOTHAR NA (IRE) ch. G, 1999 DP = 1-9-8-4-2 (24) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.13 - 18 Starts, 5 Wins, 3 Places, 0 Shows

    MONTY'S PASS (IRE) G, 1993 DP = 3-4-6-0-7 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.20

  10. #10
    Old post c 2010 lifted from Neil s on another board. Not sure if I believe in this dosage stuff myself.

    N
    ow I am interpreting the dosage. I will study the past 15 results, adding any extra for multiple winners and any with a DP of 6 or less, if enough data.

    Why?

    To give me a good working range with dosage strong horses. Ben says 6 or less is dosage weak so any data from them could be anything including infinity. Will include them though for show.

    The best range will be the tightest it will include roughly half the data, the second range will have nearly all, but not quite the horses in the data and the third will be all in the dosage strong data.

    I will rank them into seven zones.
    Zone 1 will be Extremely Positive (EP) and both the DI and CD will fit into the first range.

    Zone 2 will be Postive (P) and the best of DI and CD will fit into the first range.

    Zone 3 will be Slightly Postive (SP) and both the DI and CD will fit into the second range but not the first.

    Zone 4 will be Average (A) and the best of DI and CD will fit into the second range, but not the first.

    Zone 5 will be Slightly Negative (SN) and both the DI and CD will fit into the third range, but not any of the other two.

    Zone 6 will be Negative (N) and the best of DI and CD will fit into the third range but not any of the other two.

    Zone 7 will be Extremely Negative (EN) and the DI and CD will fit into no ranges or the DP will 6 or less regardless of the values of DI and CD.

    Then after that they will be splited by Points Across The Board (PATB) because they have a bit of everything in their pedigree, then in order of their DP highest to lowest.
    The dosage of the last 15 different, dossage strong winners of the Kerry National are:

    Northern Alliance (2-0-11-4-5) DP 22, DI 0.52, CD -0.45.
    Ponmeoath (3-3-5-0-1) DP 12, DI 2.43, CD 0.58.
    Bothar Na (1-9-8-4-2) DP 24, DI 1.40, CD 0.13.
    Euro Leader (5-4-5-4-4) DP 22, DI 1.10, CD 0.09.
    Banasan (3-0-9-9-1) DP 22, DI 0.52, CD -0.23
    Native Performance (3-2-7-0-0) DP 12, DI 2.43, CD 0.67.
    Monty’s Pass (3-4-6-0-7) DP 20, DI 1.00, CD -0.20.
    More Than A Stroll (2-1-5-6-2) DP 16, DI 0.52, CD -0.31
    Mac’s Supreme (4-2-2-4-4) DP 16, DI 0.78, CD -0.13.
    Lanturn (0-0-4-0-4) DP 8, DI 0.33, CD -1.00.
    Treble Bob (1-2-16-2-11) DP 32, DI 0.52, CD -0.63
    Dorans Pride (2-0-2-0-2)DP 6, DI 1.00, CD 0.00 (NOT USED IN SAMPLE BECAUSE OF BEING DOSAGE WEAK!)
    Bishops Hall (4-0-2-0-0)DP 6, DI 5.00, CD 1.33 (NOT USED IN SAMPLE BECAUSE OF BEING DOSAGE WEAK!)
    Life Of A Lord (3-3-6-4-2) DP 18, DI 1.00, CD 0.06.
    Desert Lord (0-4-8-4-2)DP 18, DI 0.80, CD -0.22.
    Deep Bramble (9-0-7-0-4) DP 20, DI 1.67, CD 0.50.
    Propunt (0-0-1-10-5) DP 16, DI 0.03, CD -1.25.

    The first range is DI 0.80 and under and CD -0.20 and under.

    The second range is DI 1.67 to 0.81 and CD 0.13 to -0.19.

    The third range is DI 2.43 to 1.68 and CD 0.67 to 0.14.

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