Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

[Scooby91]

The forecast is poor Kev. Cloudy Too is one I like at a price but don't have any really strong opinions on the card

1.15 clan des obeaux my only bet it the day tomorrow so avoid that one
Looks a decent card

[The Beast]

Bristol performance did surprise me today , not that he won but fact he won by so far. Yes opposition didnt run their races for whatever reason , but thats Bristols best performance by far in his short career. Only 6 , and best days to come. Only horse now that can win the million , dont expect that to happen but he is improving.If he gets his ground in either KG or GC he will give them all something to think about.

[doctorwu]

Acapella ticket in the bin. Our duke left for me.

[Scooby91]

Acapella ticket in the bin. Our duke left for me.

I haven't backed him and not for me, but he fell early there. And if he was ever going down the gold cup route he hasn't lost much today.

[The Beast]

He's got more chance of winning the GC than Bristol De Mai thats for sure.

Ooouccch Doc , i wont gloat but amazed by ride Townsend gave him , must of ridden to instruction. He better than that im sure but not great start.

[doctorwu]

Ooouccch Doc , i wont gloat but amazed by ride Townsend gave him , must of ridden to instruction. He better than that im sure but not great start.

Gloat away beast. An early lead before halftime. The quote still stands. I'll happily take AB on the chin, but BDM will do well to even line-up. Lets just put it in the notebook and see who's gloating come March.

[ComplyOrDie]

Can someone talk me through the RPR of 185 for Bristol De Mai, or his Timeform rating please?

Rated higher than Denman

[Kevloaf]

Can someone talk me through the RPR of 185 for Bristol De Mai, or his Timeform rating please?

Rated higher than Denman

As a one off performance that's the furthest ever G1 win ... record previously held by Apple's Jade

Best horse on the planet. Denman would get smashed by BDM.

Just kidding of course... but on a slightly different note, what I took from it is that Thistlecrack King George wasn't as good as I thought. Cue card and tea for two closely matched again and although thistlecrack was visually eased down, it don't think CC or TFT would put out up to Might Bite, Yorkhill, Our Duke or sizing john

[ComplyOrDie]

As a one off performance that's the furthest ever G1 win ... record previously held by Apple's Jade

Best horse on the planet. Denman would get smashed by BDM.

Just kidding of course... but on a slightly different note, what I took from it is that Thistlecrack King George wasn't as good as I thought. Cue card and tea for two closely matched again and although thistlecrack was visually eased down, it don't think CC or TFT would put out up to Might Bite, Yorkhill, Our Duke or sizing john

My main issue with it is all of his facile successes have been at Haydock, yet elsewhere he is pretty ordinary, well ordinary at the top level, certainly not a 185 horse. How can they justify beating a soon to be 12 year old in bottomless ground with a rating like that. It's farcical for me.

'IF' he does it elsewhere against the top horse then you know what, fair enough, but he's still a long way off from doing that!

There may also be more to come, as his first attempt at the Gold Cup was aged 6, but also not to forget Djakadam run the Gold Cup aged 6th and managed 2nd, BDM was back in 7th, and this division looks as competitive as it has been for some time now.

[jono]

I dread to think what rating the RP are going to give Might Bite after he easily beats the now 185 rated Bristol de Mai then

I don't bother paying too much attention to ratings and the post race ratings for Bristol de Mai have probably made me pay even less consideration to them going forward! When you look at it and compare it to some of the great horses of recent years it just shows what a mess the ratings system is. The huge winning margin has been taken literally with zero context.

However...I think it's interesting to think how both Sizing John and Might Bite may have fared with Bristol de Mai in that form though. I had this down as a bit of a gimme for Might Bite if he turned up and though I have no doubt both him and Sizing John would have pulled a similarly excessive distance between the rest of the runners I do wonder if purely on the day, that track and ground, with it suiting Bristol De Mai and not MB or SJ would they have beaten him? The more I think about it the more I think they may not have. So full credit has to be given to the horse for the performance before I knock him too much. If that would have happened then perhaps the ratings could have been justified.

In terms of what imo Bristol de Mai goes on to achieve...despite the performance at the weekend and the above I still have zero interest in him for the Gold Cup and only a passing interest for the King George. Not that I don't like the horse but having been previously beaten in the race, and having had 2 hard races on soft and heavy ground this season already he just doesn't enter my calculations. We've seen these huge winning distances by the horse for several years now. The track and ground suit the horse 100% and despite being a grade 1 in name, it had little substance. I see NTD and connections are getting the excuses out around last season and saying if he hadn't of blundered the last in the Gold Cup...we've heard this before with the New One how every year would be different

He'll be the one to beat for next years Betfair Chase and perhaps several more but he needs to back this up on better ground and another track before I start considering him for the other top 3 mile + chases. I wonder if later down the line they look to start taking him over to Ireland as well where the ground could be better suited in the Winter?

what I took from it is that Thistlecrack King George wasn't as good as I thought...

I think this is a very good point. I love Thistlecrack and his King George win last season had me i'll admit raving but hindsight is certainly starting to make me question more and more how much his chase runs amount too (and I know plenty had this view even as soon as they crossed the line in the KG). With Our Duke's setback and the Triple Crown bonus no longer being on the table I can't see much reasoning why Sizing John doesn't stay in Ireland for the Lexus over Christmas and now with more doubts on the substance of Thistlecrack's form.

As Bristol de Mai has shown his liking for Haydock and the kind of performances he can put in at a specific track...Might Bite has very strong claims to do similar with Kempton and the King George. All is going to plan for Nicky Henderson and Might Bite...

(...and also for Willie and Ruby on Yorkhill come March for the big one )

[Kevloaf]

On Thistlecrack, how much do you think he will come on/need to come on from his re-appearance? I am not particularly keen on it, although it did Top Notch no harm at all last weekend! Thistlecrack was hardly a natural over his fences though and having a spin over hurdles won't do his jumping much good IMO.

I think although the King George will look a strong race on paper, I fully expect Might Bite to put in a dominating performance.... everything is in his favour from what we know.I think Thistlecrack will put in some almighty leaps and then a couple that halt his momentum and Might Bite won't be stopping.

As for the rest, huge leap of faith at single figures to think Fox Norton will be good enough, he'd NEED to improve to the step up and even that might not be enough IMO.

Sizing John might not run now, Douvan won't be. If I knew Djakadam was at 16s I'd play him each way as 3m at Kempton might be just up his street, albeit I don't think he'd trouble Might Bite over any distance at Kempton.

Tea For Two isn't good enough but I've seen worse 25/1 shots in a race that might not even have 8 viable runners?

[Robante]

Is this opening up for Yorkhill a bit? I’ve been against him to this point and don’t think his point form is anything special. But I rule out Bristol De Mai unless it’s deep ground (also worried that he’ll be over the top by March), Disko and Might Bite I’d be worried about the last couple of furlongs. Our Duke will obviously stay all day but not sure he has the class, Thistlecrack I don’t think the form is special over fences at 3m+. That leaves Yorkhill and Sizing John. It will surely be a tougher test than Sizing John had last year, and on breeding Yorkhill won’t have a problem with the trip and loves Cheltenham. If Ruby can keep him quiet for most of the race and ease him along he’s sure to travel well enough to be up there when it counts. Surely he could outpace Sizing John, who never seemed to have the toe for 2 miles unlike Yorkhill. He’s tempting me

[Robante]

Is this opening up for Yorkhill a bit? I’ve been against him to this point and don’t think his point form is anything special. But I rule out Bristol De Mai unless it’s deep ground (also worried that he’ll be over the top by March), Disko and Might Bite I’d be worried about the last couple of furlongs. Our Duke will obviously stay all day but not sure he has the class, Thistlecrack I don’t think the form is special over fences at 3m+. That leaves Yorkhill and Sizing John. It will surely be a tougher test than Sizing John had last year, and on breeding Yorkhill won’t have a problem with the trip and loves Cheltenham. If Ruby can keep him quiet for most of the race and ease him along he’s sure to travel well enough to be up there when it counts. Surely he could outpace Sizing John, who never seemed to have the toe for 2 miles unlike Yorkhill. He’s tempting me

I’m at least at the point now where I don’t really entertain that he’ll line up elsewhere, barring injury to Faugheen. It’s the one race where Mullins/Ruby probably aren’t going to have a viable alternative for win purposes, and it’s the biggest race of the lot

[Kevloaf]

Is this opening up for Yorkhill a bit? I’ve been against him to this point and don’t think his point form is anything special. But I rule out Bristol De Mai unless it’s deep ground (also worried that he’ll be over the top by March), Disko and Might Bite I’d be worried about the last couple of furlongs. Our Duke will obviously stay all day but not sure he has the class, Thistlecrack I don’t think the form is special over fences at 3m+. That leaves Yorkhill and Sizing John. It will surely be a tougher test than Sizing John had last year, and on breeding Yorkhill won’t have a problem with the trip and loves Cheltenham. If Ruby can keep him quiet for most of the race and ease him along he’s sure to travel well enough to be up there when it counts. Surely he could outpace Sizing John, who never seemed to have the toe for 2 miles unlike Yorkhill. He’s tempting me

I was thinking about Yorkhill while driving today... I couldn't remember whether I have posted about being with or against him ... probably neither at this stage but him idling when hitting the front would worry me BUT I think with Faugheen and Douvan back, the coast is clear to aim arguably the most talented raw horse in training at the big one!

After he landed the Altior/Yorkhill double for me I thought his work for me was done.... but I am getting lured back in!

[Kevloaf]

Just posted this in the ante post bit, but belongs here sorry.... just a couple of thoughts on the proven GC trip stayers

Re: Our Duke

I think he went to a huge price (25/1 which I took) and looking at the rest of the market, he's one of the only ones who is proven to stay the distance near the head of the market...

Thistle - not visually and not done it yet
SJ - definitely stays GC trip 7/1
MB - not proven yet, more suited to Kempton and 'hated' the hill...
Yorkhill - not been further than 2m5f yet ...
BDM - probably stays it?
NAtive River - stays 12/1
Douvan - no proof
Our Duke - STAYS 16/1
Djakadam - splits opinion, I say he does but last year was his year
Disko - unproven stayer
Coneygree - stays.25/1

Of those 4, at 7/1, 12/1, 16/1 and 25/1 I'd be witrh Our Duke still at 16/1 ... Coneygree you couldn't have ante post anyway.... and I always think about Syncronised not being class but staying.