Supreme Novices 2018

[Scooby91]

Now is the time of year where ruby is having his say and ehat he wants to ride. And dosent want to ride.
Duc des genievres
Next destination.
Are both 14/1 nrnb, in light of current form, they're both cracking ew prices in this. regardless whether they run or not.
One of the 2 will almost certainly be rubys ballymore ride

[Innoko]

I'm a little late to the party but...

Are there grounds for saying that DDG being beaten 5 lengths by Samcro could be the best form in this race now? (Obviously assuming Samcro doesn't run).

[Kevloaf]

Now is the time of year where ruby is having his say and ehat he wants to ride. And dosent want to ride.
Duc des genievres
Next destination.
Are both 14/1 nrnb, in light of current form, they're both cracking ew prices in this. regardless whether they run or not.
One of the 2 will almost certainly be rubys ballymore ride

Read this at work and didn't ahve chance to reply. Completely agree with the last sentance.

I'm a little late to the party but...

Are there grounds for saying that DDG being beaten 5 lengths by Samcro could be the best form in this race now? (Obviously assuming Samcro doesn't run).

Yes, I think you could argue that was the 2nd best 2m novice performance this season... 3rd behind Getabird and Samcro's...

If Getabird is Ruby's Supreme pick, I can see why they'd pitch DdG up in trip against Samcro again... however DdG looks an excellent each way bet in the Supreme NRNB?

[charlie]

Western Ryder @ 33's. Ran really well in the bumper coming from far back through traffic to finish half a length behind Claimantakinforgan. Showed the the same qualities to run on strongly up the hill to win at Cheltenham in December, where he hurdled slickly and beat the Tolworth winner, Summerville Boy. I am too put off by the Tolworth run. WG has said very clearly that he needs a fast run race which he didn't get on heavy ground Sandown.

I think the market has overreacted and I'd have 33/1 EW any day of the week over some of shorter prices at the top of the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GqbXAQEuXc

sounds 50/50 on supreme or ballymore for WR.

[Scooby91]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GqbXAQEuXc

sounds 50/50 on supreme or ballymore for WR.

I haven't watched the video but he's been kept back for the Sydney banks. You can work out from that what the plan is.

[charlie]

I haven't watched the video but he's been kept back for the Sydney banks. You can work out from that what the plan is.

He says the plan in the video. They are not leaning either way and will make a decision nearer the time. The Sydney Banks makes the Ballymore look more likely but plenty of supreme winners go over 2m2f - 2m5f, before dropping back at Cheltenham. (Champagne Fever, Menorah, Vautor, Labaik, Al Ferof, to mention a few more recent examples).

Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Scooby91]

He says the plan in the video. They are not leaning either way and will make a decision nearer the time. The Sydney Banks makes the Ballymore look more likely but plenty of supreme winners go over 2m2f - 2m5f, before dropping back at Cheltenham. (Champagne Fever, Menorah, Vautor, Labaik, Al Ferof, to mention a few more recent examples).

Will be interesting to see what happens.

Good luck with your bets

[KingSprinterSacre]

5 weeks from now hopefully we are celebrating getting the festival off to a flyer with the first winner in the bag.

[SAMCRO]

5 weeks from now hopefully we are celebrating getting the festival off to a flyer with the first winner in the bag.

Which is ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Which is ?

Provided Samcro doesn't turn up I'd imagine it will be either Getabird or ITCF now, and yes I've done a complete 'U' turn, because only foolish people let pride stand in the way of making money

[TheEagleHasLanded]

Provided Samcro doesn't turn up I'd imagine it will be either Getabird or ITCF now, and yes I've done a complete 'U' turn, because only foolish people let pride stand in the way of making money

If Samcro turns up here and not the ballymore, I WILL CRY..... A LOT

[ComplyOrDie]

If Samcro turns up here and not the ballymore, I WILL CRY..... A LOT

Not expecting him too if I am honest, but there is of course a chance that he might do.

[Robbante]

I see it as entirely ground dependent. Unless it’s soft/heavy then Samcro will be in the Ballymore

[opatcho]

Just had a look at the exchanges for this race

Can’t believe how much value you can still get outside the top three. If you take Samcronout, you have two single digit selections and the rest of the field are double digits

Hopefully the bookies offer “money back if fav wins”, I know prices will shorten in, but still think there’s value if you fancy something out the top two

Starting to like my ITCF AP again :-) especially I’m looking to opposite Getabird

[Kevloaf]

Andy Holding with a tip for Paloma Blue .... not one I've seen anyone mention in a good long while (if at all?!) in this thread....

https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival/20180206-andy-holdings-supreme-novices-hurdle-ante-post-preview

Taking the view that his performance deserves upgrading and he shaped like the second best horse in the race, it makes little sense why he should be quoted at a bigger price than the likes of Duc Des Genievres (picked up the pieces late on to finish a flattering second), Sharjah, Early Doors and Real Steel. Moreover, with the likelihood that Samcro will now be stepped up in trip and go for the 2m 4f Ballymore on the Wednesday of the festival, it’s not outrageous to suggest the six-year-old gelding, Getabird aside, arguably holds the best singular piece of Irish 2m novice hurdle form going in to the curtain-raiser. Looking at raiders from the home contingent, If The Cap Fits rates the clear pick on his Kempton form, but as of yet he’s yet to run anywhere near the standard of Grade 1 company, Claimintakinforgan ran as though his tires had been deflated at Musselburgh the other day, while Kalashnikov would need to be winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury off his handicap mark to justify going down the Supreme route. Now Espoir D’Allen blew out of the Triumph Hurdle picture in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, talk of Apples Shakira being re-routed to come here instead of lining up in the opener on day-four have been extinguished, while Mengli Khan looked as though he saw a ghost when running out at Leopardstown and got readily put in his place by Getabird at Punchestown last time.

Takin' shots!