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  1. #1
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Supreme Novices 2018

    With only 235 days to go until the Supreme kicks off another Cheltenham Festival today seems like a good day to start this post From a betting point of view i'm not sure any years renewal can be as bad as last years (I'd also say the quality of last years race is also lacking and I can't see too many coming out of the race and making a major mark going forward) But onwards and upwards for this year.

    Fayonagh heads the betting at 14/1 and looks a worthy fav. Although Elliott is one of the better trainers for indicating targets, I think they'll be a lot of uncertainty where she lines up this year so she doesn't make too much appeal right now.

    Debuchet is next up in the betting at 16/1 - the horse she beat in the Champion Bumper. He followed up that second with an easy win in April but it's the horse who beat Debuchet on debut that is of interest and at bigger odds - Red Jack at 25/1

    The following has come out of Red Jack's debut win:

    2nd - Debuchet
    29/01 - Won by 6.5L
    15/03 - 2nd in Champion Bumper
    06/04 - Won by 5L

    3rd - Le Richebourg
    29/01 - 2nd (beaten by Debuchet)
    14/05 - Won by 12L
    20/07 - Won by 6.5L

    Red Jack was then bought by JP and followed up at Fairyhouse. At a glance the winning distance was small but he had plenty in hand. Lesley Dawn, back in 7th that day then followed up to win by 16L's in May.

    Here's what Meade had to say about the horse in February this year:

    JP bought him after he won at Naas. He won very well and the form held up well when the second won well the other day at Leopardstown. We fancied him so well that we thought he’d win but when I got to Naas, everyone else seemed to fancy theirs as well.

    He is just a very good horse, he’ll go for the Goffs Bumper at Fairyhouse and, depending on how that goes, he could end up going for the Champion Bumper at Punchestown.

    He was bought last June and everything just came very easy to him from the word go. I remember I told Johnny Moore not to let him come off the bridle on his final piece of work before he ran at Naas.

    He ended up coming up the outside the rest of the horses that day and I said to him after the work, that he wasn’t to come off the bridle. Johnny said back to me that he didn’t and that I could go anywhere that I liked with him!
    I know some people see Meade's horses as a negative for the festival but over the last couple of years he's had a decent record of his main hopes hitting the frame:

    2017 -
    Disko - 3rd -JLT - 4/1
    Road to Respect - 1st - Plate -16/1

    2016 -
    Measureofmydreams - 3rd - NHC - 10/1
    Road to Riches - 3rd - Ryanair - 7/1

    2015 -
    Road to Riches - 3rd - Gold Cup - 8/1
    Wounded Warrior - 3rd - RSA - 12/1

    Any early thoughts on the race or Red Jack? (or if he's more likely to go up in trip?
    Last edited by jono; 07-31-2017 at 06:47 PM.

  2. #2
    You make a good case Jono. I remember watching Red Jack's debut and he beat some well touted horses quite easily - which is probably why JP got the wallet out.

    He's of interest to me and, like you, I see him as a supreme novice horse.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I wonder if we'll see some performances from Red Jack that are not peak with a view to peaking at Cheltenham? Would certainly fit a Meade steroetype and to some extent JP too? All with a view to his price getting a bit bigger?

    I wonder is sky will do the same NRNB offer as early this year... I really shouldn't be playing in the race this far out...

    Just to add, 3rd - Le Richebourg won today beating Timi Roli for Willie. That horse hasn't won very often but isn't a bad beast?

  4. #4
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    I dont intend to get too involved in the supreme a/post , until later in the year. , but i have had a small each way single on Samcro
    at 20-1 with p.power , I like the sound of Red Jack though jono.

  5. #5
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Another win by Le Richebourg in the opener at Galway this evening. Not the strongest of races but the front 2 pulled well clear of the rest.

    I wonder if we'll see some performances from Red Jack that are not peak with a view to peaking at Cheltenham? Would certainly fit a Meade steroetype and to some extent JP too? All with a view to his price getting a bit bigger?
    Not unlike a JP horse for sure but i can't say I can recall either connections doing this to one of their better prospects i.e in the graded races? (you assume the horse will be aimed towards either the Supreme or Neptune). If he was to disappoint early on and head towards a handicap that would be a different matter...

  6. #6
    Yeah, another boost to the bumper form. Who is best price on Red Jack for any race?

  7. #7
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    14's with William Hill.
    8/1 SkyBet

    PaddyPower have the market but not Red Jack. I'd be surprised if anywhere offers bigger than 14/1 though?

    Am I right FM in thinking you are keen to back most of these novices (Red Jack, Samcro) in any race?
    New strategy I.e a preference overall or just for these specific horses?

  8. #8
    I'm going to split my stake between a specific race (e.g. Supreme) and the any race market with most of my bets on novices.

    It's something I've started to do more of in recent years having been stung with late switches in the past.

  9. #9
    Walked into Hills yesterday to try and get the 14/1 on Red Jack for any race. They said it was only an online offer. Did anyone manage to get on this bet in the shops?

  10. #10
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    Anyone know what horses willie mullins has planned for this race?

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