Supreme Novices 2018

[Folski]

I have just reviewed the sectionals of Getabird's Moscow Flyer win and they make for very interesting reading.

Getabird was approximately 18L clear of the 2m4 handicap hurdle over his first 4 flights.

The Patrick proceeds to slow him right down between the next 3 flights Gerabird is 0.19seconds quicker in total than the 2m4 handicappers the winner of which was rated 97 and has since been beat of 103.

Patrick is effectively stacking them up but on all known form this makes absolutely no sense. Getabird a P2P winner over 3m if anything should be trying to run the finish out of Mengli Kahn and make this as much of a test of stamina as possible. Not playing into the hands of a horse who won over 1m on the flat.

Getabird then proceeds to put about 17L between him and the handicappers between the 2nd last and the winning post. The handicappers were all out as well in a tight finish, Getabird got 2 cracks and took off.

[Kevloaf]

How does that make you feel about his chances Folski?

It backs up the comments about how surprised they were about his turn of foot...but does seem unusual to test that theory during the race if it wasn't the plan beforehand?

[Folski]

How does that make you feel about his chances Folski?

It backs up the comments about how surprised they were about his turn of foot...but does seem unusual to test that theory during the race if it wasn't the plan beforehand?

Kev, I think he is my banker of the week to be honest. I am on at 20s (Ballymore), 14s and 12s (Supreme). Patrick skipped his Christmas dinner to get down to ride Blackbow on Christmas day who had 11-09 on his back. Getabird was 11-02 that day so he must have been starved to get down another half a stone.

If you watch the replay Mengali Kahn eyebawls him turning for home, Getabird quickly puts 1.5L between them Patrick turns his head and sees he has MK well and truly covered. He gets down to the last and puts another 8 between them. That race is absolutely set up for MK. Patrick admitted GB was a bit worked up in the parade ring and bolted at the first, I don't think it was the plan to stack them up at all. The horse was having his second run after 11 months off the track and I think they were trying to mind him, in let's face it what was his first proper run over hurdles.

[Kevloaf]

I agree with everything you've said to be honest Folski.

I've watched the race back a few times since but not for a while so did again and it was just an incredibly impressive performance. I was of the opinion that Mengli Khan will be closer in the Supreme and I still don't see a reason to chance my mind on that when we get back on better ground but it is incredibly hard to pick holes in Getabird.

IF I was starting my betting now (Which I am obviously not haha) - I think Mengli Khan 14/1 NRNB e/w is a decent bet to place.... compared to the prices now of ITCF and Kalashnikov in particular.

I've got 16s and 10s for Getabird both NRNB in the Supreme so in a nice spot for the singles, however I've only got 2 multiples with Getabird in... one is going to be a non runner actually because Sharjah Ballymore is in it, and the other is the "4 timer" with Footpad, BVD and AJ that I obviously am not relying on.

I might need to start thinking about Getabird being in some multiples to be perfectly honest!

[The Beast]

Kev, I think he is my banker of the week to be honest. I am on at 20s (Ballymore), 14s and 12s (Supreme). Patrick skipped his Christmas dinner to get down to ride Blackbow on Christmas day who had 11-09 on his back. Getabird was 11-02 that day so he must have been starved to get down another half a stone.

If you watch the replay Mengali Kahn eyebawls him turning for home, Getabird quickly puts 1.5L between them Patrick turns his head and sees he has MK well and truly covered. He gets down to the last and puts another 8 between them. That race is absolutely set up for MK. Patrick admitted GB was a bit worked up in the parade ring and bolted at the first, I don't think it was the plan to stack them up at all. The horse was having his second run after 11 months off the track and I think they were trying to mind him, in let's face it what was his first proper run over hurdles.

Dont disagree with any of that , certainly the one too beat. That said MK in my eyes was looked after in race , he came back far to soon after that previous run. Can see why Gordon ran him again before Cheltenham as it would be big concern going Cheltenham with that previous run in back of his mind. Add in giving Getabird 6lb , plus Gordon pre race comments that he would be happy with clear round , you almost got sense he was pleased with run.
Do reckon he will be closer to Getabird at Cheltenham , but whether thats good enough to beat him is another thing.
Of the rest Claimantforgan is only other one i like ,forget last race , ground went against him plus slow run race. End to end gallop of supreme and likely better ground i can see him hitting frame.

[Folski]

Dont disagree with any of that , certainly the one too beat. That said MK in my eyes was looked after in race , he came back far to soon after that previous run. Can see why Gordon ran him again before Cheltenham as it would be big concern going Cheltenham with that previous run in back of his mind. Add in giving Getabird 6lb , plus Gordon pre race comments that he would be happy with clear round , you almost got sense he was pleased with run.
Do reckon he will be closer to Getabird at Cheltenham , but whether thats good enough to beat him is another thing.
Of the rest Claimantforgan is only other one i like ,forget last race , ground went against him plus slow run race. End to end gallop of supreme and likely better ground i can see him hitting frame.

I suspect Ruby will do a Champagne Fever in this and see if something can catch him.

[The Beast]

I suspect Ruby will do a Champagne Fever in this and see if something can catch him.

You always know when they fancy one ,Ruby tends to jump out and makes all (lost count the amount he ran from front).He must have some racing brain to get the sectional times right. My only concern about Getabird is the likely faster ground and we wont find out till the day, Willie has said he got dodgy legs . Probably will get away with it on first day with ground , good luck.

[Cabello Sin Nombre]

I think Duc De Genievres has good ew claims. 14/1 on 365 NRNB and think a few above him will come out. His race the last day at Leop was fairly solid. Henry De Brom horse also ew claims imo . Have had no bet as of yet and certainly won't be getting stuck in at 7/4 on Getabird. Fair play to those with dockets of 10's plus.

[doctorwu]

I think Duc De Genievres has good ew claims. 14/1 on 365 NRNB and think a few above him will come out. His race the last day at Leop was fairly solid. Henry De Brom horse also ew claims imo . Have had no bet as of yet and certainly won't be getting stuck in at 7/4 on Getabird. Fair play to those with dockets of 10's plus.

BTR,
More likely the Ballymore for DDG Imo

[mossy]

I know O'Leary has said Samcro goes ballymore but bet365 are now gone 14/1 nrnb on him for here. If it turns up heavy I wouldn't be surprised if he goes back in trip

[charlie]

I know O'Leary has said Samcro goes ballymore but bet365 are now gone 14/1 nrnb on him for here. If it turns up heavy I wouldn't be surprised if he goes back in trip

Agree. Absolutely nothing to lose

[ComplyOrDie]

Probably spent more than enough time on this race that I should probably just give in now and let be what will be, however, I thought I'd take another look and different angles, as mine mostly consist of the Irish lot, and I came up with the following conclusion:

I had reservations about ITCF' form, because of the level he had competed at, and fair play to Scooby who has been with him from the word go, I'm just jumping on the band wagon after the bird as flown, so to speak, but for me you just can't crab any of his form. He has form lines through Irish Prophecy that puts him ahead of Kalashnikov, beating the former by 28 lengths giving 3lb away, whereas Kalashnikov beat the same horse by 10 lengths off levels, this also puts him ahead of Summerville Boy who put 4 lengths between himself and Kalashnikov too.

Now, collateral form isn't probably the strongest to base the argument on, so I took a look at his latest win at Kempton, and the horses that followed him home that day have form figures since then of: 5th (Diese Des Bieffes, up in class and trip for very first time, still a very solid run, only beaten 3 3/4 legnths by a current festival race favourite), 1st (Solomon Grey, class 3 handicap, but beat what was a well fancied horse for the festival anyway in Oxford Blu), 2nd (Simply The Betts, class 2 handicap in which Claimintakinforgan was also beat), 3rd & 1st (Ar Mest, class 4 handicaps). The race ITCF won at Kempton has a very solid feel about it, 4 of them, including ITCF had won LTO too.

Of the British challengers I'd have to say that Scooby has likely been right all along (sorry for the doubt haha), but I feel better putting it in my own words, but at the same time feel/know the value has likely gone.

I do still, however, think it will take a very good one to knock Getabird out of the way!

[Kevloaf]

I would love If The Cap Fits to win this.

My best result in singles and best potential with multiples too.

Mengli Khan, Getabird and Claimintakinforgan aren't far behind though

[BigChaang]

I would love If The Cap Fits to win this.

My best result in singles and best potential with multiples too.

Mengli Khan, Getabird and Claimintakinforgan aren't far behind though

Same 4 for me in this Kevloaf , although I have stuck Dr Des in for a cheeky 66-1 outsider.

[One f in fulham]

A few years back a friend of mine said take a look at the time Faugheen clocked when he won the xmas hurdle the day Altior won the novice race. There was only a split between the two on the clock. This season If the cap fits clocked 3m55.1 in the novice race where as Buveur D air clocked 3m57.50 in the xmas hurdle. Admittedly I think BD could of gone a bit quicker but you have to take note that ITCF would've run BD close and beaten The New One. Take this as you please but on the back of that day im all in on ITCF. I cant vision anything else in the supreme that could clock a similar time to the champion hurdle fav.