With only 235 days to go until the Supreme kicks off another Cheltenham Festival today seems like a good day to start this post From a betting point of view i'm not sure any years renewal can be as bad as last years (I'd also say the quality of last years race is also lacking and I can't see too many coming out of the race and making a major mark going forward) But onwards and upwards for this year.
Fayonagh heads the betting at 14/1 and looks a worthy fav. Although Elliott is one of the better trainers for indicating targets, I think they'll be a lot of uncertainty where she lines up this year so she doesn't make too much appeal right now.
Debuchet is next up in the betting at 16/1 - the horse she beat in the Champion Bumper. He followed up that second with an easy win in April but it's the horse who beat Debuchet on debut that is of interest and at bigger odds - Red Jack at 25/1
The following has come out of Red Jack's debut win:
2nd - Debuchet
29/01 - Won by 6.5L
15/03 - 2nd in Champion Bumper
06/04 - Won by 5L
3rd - Le Richebourg
29/01 - 2nd (beaten by Debuchet)
14/05 - Won by 12L
20/07 - Won by 6.5L
Red Jack was then bought by JP and followed up at Fairyhouse. At a glance the winning distance was small but he had plenty in hand. Lesley Dawn, back in 7th that day then followed up to win by 16L's in May.
Here's what Meade had to say about the horse in February this year:
I know some people see Meade's horses as a negative for the festival but over the last couple of years he's had a decent record of his main hopes hitting the frame:
2017 -
Disko - 3rd -JLT - 4/1
Road to Respect - 1st - Plate -16/1
2016 -
Measureofmydreams - 3rd - NHC - 10/1
Road to Riches - 3rd - Ryanair - 7/1
2015 -
Road to Riches - 3rd - Gold Cup - 8/1
Wounded Warrior - 3rd - RSA - 12/1
Any early thoughts on the race or Red Jack? (or if he's more likely to go up in trip?
Fayonagh heads the betting at 14/1 and looks a worthy fav. Although Elliott is one of the better trainers for indicating targets, I think they'll be a lot of uncertainty where she lines up this year so she doesn't make too much appeal right now.
Debuchet is next up in the betting at 16/1 - the horse she beat in the Champion Bumper. He followed up that second with an easy win in April but it's the horse who beat Debuchet on debut that is of interest and at bigger odds - Red Jack at 25/1
The following has come out of Red Jack's debut win:
2nd - Debuchet
29/01 - Won by 6.5L
15/03 - 2nd in Champion Bumper
06/04 - Won by 5L
3rd - Le Richebourg
29/01 - 2nd (beaten by Debuchet)
14/05 - Won by 12L
20/07 - Won by 6.5L
Red Jack was then bought by JP and followed up at Fairyhouse. At a glance the winning distance was small but he had plenty in hand. Lesley Dawn, back in 7th that day then followed up to win by 16L's in May.
Here's what Meade had to say about the horse in February this year:
JP bought him after he won at Naas. He won very well and the form held up well when the second won well the other day at Leopardstown. We fancied him so well that we thought he’d win but when I got to Naas, everyone else seemed to fancy theirs as well.
He is just a very good horse, he’ll go for the Goffs Bumper at Fairyhouse and, depending on how that goes, he could end up going for the Champion Bumper at Punchestown.
He was bought last June and everything just came very easy to him from the word go. I remember I told Johnny Moore not to let him come off the bridle on his final piece of work before he ran at Naas.
He ended up coming up the outside the rest of the horses that day and I said to him after the work, that he wasn’t to come off the bridle. Johnny said back to me that he didn’t and that I could go anywhere that I liked with him!
He is just a very good horse, he’ll go for the Goffs Bumper at Fairyhouse and, depending on how that goes, he could end up going for the Champion Bumper at Punchestown.
He was bought last June and everything just came very easy to him from the word go. I remember I told Johnny Moore not to let him come off the bridle on his final piece of work before he ran at Naas.
He ended up coming up the outside the rest of the horses that day and I said to him after the work, that he wasn’t to come off the bridle. Johnny said back to me that he didn’t and that I could go anywhere that I liked with him!
2017 -
Disko - 3rd -JLT - 4/1
Road to Respect - 1st - Plate -16/1
2016 -
Measureofmydreams - 3rd - NHC - 10/1
Road to Riches - 3rd - Ryanair - 7/1
2015 -
Road to Riches - 3rd - Gold Cup - 8/1
Wounded Warrior - 3rd - RSA - 12/1
Any early thoughts on the race or Red Jack? (or if he's more likely to go up in trip?
Comment