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Supreme Novices 2018

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  • Is contesting a graded race that important to ITCF chances? It didn't stop Menorah winning the Supreme in 2010.

    I don't see it as a negative at all. He's done all that has been asked of him but I'm far more concerned about HF's poor form and (to a lesser extent) the lack of a recent run for ITCF.

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    • ITCF has trained with the Supreme in mind all season and has beaten what was put in front of him convincingly whilst showing a nice turn of foot. I would have liked to see him up in class possibly the once but Harry Fry and Noel Fehily have both come out and said he doesn’t take a lot of hard racing well yet and by there own admission he was slightly over when he finished 4th im the Aintree bumper last year. Your taking a chance that Fry will have him 100% on the day but he knows the horse best so I’m inclined to trust him. As FM said Frys recent poor form is a worry but there’s still four weeks for him to get firing.

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      • Wouldn’t it be nice to know which Fehily would ride if he had a free choice!

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        • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
          Is contesting a graded race that important to ITCF chances? It didn't stop Menorah winning the Supreme in 2010.

          I don't see it as a negative at all. He's done all that has been asked of him but I'm far more concerned about HF's poor form and (to a lesser extent) the lack of a recent run for ITCF.
          FM,
          One could say he's dodged all the decent trials. Good luck with him, but I can't have him at all.

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          • Originally posted by doctorwu View Post
            FM,
            One could say he's dodged all the decent trials. Good luck with him, but I can't have him at all.
            The race at Kempton is historically a good trial for this race and one of the key reasons that I like him for the Supreme.

            To be honest, I wouldn't be in a rush to back at his current price because he'll probably be as big, if not bigger, on the day.

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            • I’ve drawn up a wish list. One of them is running in a graded race - obviously running in a graded race doesn’t mean the field are any good. It just something I wanted to see ITCF achieve his year, or beating a decent horse

              I like the horse.... l like the way he won his races this year. There are plenty of positives about him...
              would I back him now at 8/1, properly not. I seriously think he’ll place here but will win at aintree in April

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              • Crazy if that happens. 100/1 with Hills

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                • Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

                  The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

                  I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

                  I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?

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                  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

                    The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

                    I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

                    I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?
                    I’ve got 0.6pts on at 33s, nothing to shout about though as have had about half the novice hurdlers in training at one point or another

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                    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

                      The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

                      I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

                      I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?

                      I got 1.5pts at 33.0 on exchange (11th jan). Really likes his two wins prior to Tolworth
                      Him and ITCF where the ones that catch my eye at the start of the season

                      For some reason, I didn’t go in too hard on Kalashnikov for the Betfair Hurdle. Think I was out off by connections saying they didn’t want it too soft. Lessons learnt for me, if I like the horse at the start of the season and continued to follow it in by backing AP for supreme the. Bloody well back it hard for a handicap race where he was pretty well in - grhhhhhhh

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                      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                        Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

                        The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

                        I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

                        I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?

                        I've got 1/2 pt @ ~70 on Betfair.

                        For the Ballymore

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                        • It was a really impressive performance from kalashnikov but I cant back horses in the Supreme or Neptune that have run in handicaps, until one goes and wins one, there have been loads of fancied runners who have tried and failed.

                          (Borrowed these stats from Narrowing the Field)
                          0 of the last 20 Supreme winners ran in a handicap last time out
                          47 tried to win the Supreme off the back of a hcp run and 0 succeeded, 6 placed

                          0 of the last 20 Neptune winners ran in a handicap last time out
                          39 tried to win the Neptune off the back of a hcp run and only 2 placed.

                          There have been a few gone close but (Get me out of here springs to mind) until one or even two manage it ill oppose them, if they are pretty short prices, Kalashnikov falls into this category for me, but the weight he carried and his rating do make me nervous.

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                          • I can't see Kalashnikov winning it with the prep he's had, been to the well on heavy ground too many times, must have taken its toll on a novice. Also on collateral form you'd have to give as much chance to the likes of Summerville Boy and Slate House, both of whom will be going in fresher

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                            • Kalashnikov one of the LAYS of the festival.

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                              • From a stats perspective Next Destination ticks so many boxes.

                                5 or 6 years old
                                Won 50% of all hurdle starts
                                Run in the same calendar year
                                Graded Form
                                Run at Cheltenham
                                Under 10/1 that run in last years bumper
                                Ex bumper horses placed in G1/G2 company

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