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Thread: RSA Chase 2013

  1. #41
    IR Plays from Neil Munro ( Betfair)

    RSA Chase - Let us keep this simple. I don't fancy Dynaste so I am looking for some value to trade on and in Super Duty I have a likely front runner who will trade short in the run and Boston Bob who will be delivered late and will trade both high and low during the race.

    Back Super Duty pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake only at the matched price with further offers up around evens to create a green book but with Super Duty still winning plenty.
    Back Boston Bob for small stakes pre-race at BSP, and then back it at both 2x and 4x BSP in the run for further small stakes. Then lay out your combined stakes, plus a little more at around 2.20 to create a green book.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Will be 7 or 8 years of age. Has not won the Feltham and probably not the Reynoldstown. Could have been beaten in the Feltham. Unlikely to be Northern trained. Will have been 1st or 2nd last time. Last time out either won a graded chase over at least 2m 5f or won a chase over 3 miles or was a ‘staying on’ second over 3m. Will have run between three and five times over fences or be unbeaten. Will have already run or approached 3 mile chase time in just over 6 minutes. NH bred. Unlikely to be unbeaten over fences but will not have finished outside the first three in any completed chase start. Could be any price. Won't be blinkered. W Mullins horse to place at least. Winner not run for at least 27 days but has been out since 31 December. Between 9 to 12 total NH runs. Unlikely to have spent 2 full seasons over hurdles but may have hurdle rating of at least 134. Will have won a graded hurdle.
    AGE Since Minnehoma ’92 all 31 horses aged 9 and above unsuccessful (Call The Police 3rd last year, 09' three were no bigger than 16s, all pulled up). Mikael D'Haguenet, Restless Harry. 16 of last 19 winners were 7 or 8 years of age. Seven year olds won 11 of last 13. Exceptions were the 5 yr old Star De Mohaison ’06 (with a big allowance) and two 6 yr olds, Florida Pearl ’98 and Young Hustler ’93. Long Run 3rd as a 5yr old in 2010. Those are the only two six year olds to have won since 1978, although Burton Port was 2nd in 2011. 5 yr olds now only get a 2lb allowance and mares 7lb. The two 6 yr olds winners were very well fancied in what were, with hindsight, uncompetitive renewals.

    PRICES Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman shrugged off the favourites bogey. Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die, Punchestown and Time For Rupert Long Run, Grand Crus all 3/1 or under and beat.

    BOGEY RACES. In '08 Albertas Run completed the Reynoldstown/RSA double, first since Killiney ’73. 19 have tried, 11 started favourite here, only 6 others achieved a place (Invictus didnt run here last year. In '11 Master of The Hall 6th, '10 Burton Port 2nd, '09 Carruthers finished 4th). Bobs Worth, Nahthen Lad '96, Envopak Token, The West Awake and Kildimo all beaten in the Reynoldstown went on to win at Cheltenham. Houblon Des Obeaux (I know its hard to believe). Since 1996 only 5 horses have ran in the RSA after being beaten in a Reynoldstown. Bobs Worth only winner. Rest tend to go to the 4 miler or Aintree.

    There were two arguments put forward for Albertas Run to break the jinx. First, his Ascot time of 6mins 2secs had not been bettered by any winner of that race since at least ’91. This was possibly because of the recent change to the Ascot ground but there had been two good to firms in the last decade. Secondly he was the only Reynoldstown winner to attempt to win the Sun Alliance with a previous Cheltenham chase win over 3 miles. This year Rocky Creek's Ascot time was mins 6mins 25 secs in soft ground

    All 18 Feltham winners to come here have failed to do the double. Dynaste Even Trabolgan '05 was beaten a short head at Kempton before coming here. 6 horses beaten in that race have won here.

    Last years Neptune Hurdle winner hasn't figured in the finish of this since at least 1991. Simonsig goes to Arkle.

    Last 48 winners all had a run since 31 December (Grand Cru not seen since Boxing Day. The wise ones, they knew).

    Apart from Hussard Collonges’ success in 2002, Royal Emperor placed ‘04 and According To John's 3rd in '07, 30 other Northern based have failed to reach frame during last 14. Mr Moonshine 7th last year. 2011 Wymott, '10 Knockara Beau 4th.

    FORM 35 from last 38 winners were 1st or 2nd last time (exceptions Kildimo 4th in a Reynoldstown, Lesley Ann Fell and Hanakham, 3rd in the Wincanton Gold Cup Trial).
    15 of last 20 were in the first four in the market. That means 5 outsiders won. Not a shock.

    18 of last 21 had run no more than 5 times over fences. 18 from last 19 had run at least three times over fences (not Florida Pearl - unbeaten over 2).

    Cooldine, Brief Gale, Florida Pearl and Star De Mohaison only 4 of the last 27 winners yet to be tried in a chase over 3 miles. All four had won their previous start, all bar Star in a Graded race. Of the rest only Hussard Collonges (2nd twice, ‘staying on’), Nahthen Lad and Bobs Worth (both 2nd in a Reynoldstown) and Trabolgan (short head 2nd in a Feltham) had not been successful over that distance. Bobs Worth had won an Albert Bartlett.

    11 from last 13 'raced up with the pace' or 'tracked leaders'. Not Weapon's Amnesty nor Bobs Worth. Last 14 hadn't run within the last 27 days.

    Last 15 winners had 59 completed starts over fences. Only three unplaced completions, two of which were in Irish Grade 1 Chases 2m 4f or less. Denman, Florida Pearl and Rolling Ball '91 the last three to have 100% success rate over fences.

    11 from last 13, 9 to 12 total runs over hurdles and chases. Not Bobs Worth 7 plus 2 bumper runs.

    No mares have won since Brief Gale in '95. (No runners last three years).

    BLINKERS - No headgear winners in last 13 (Wymott PU 2011)

    BREEDING 18 of last 21 NH Bred. (Star De Mohaison and Hussard the French bred exceptions, Bostons Angel sired by Winged Love, a dual purpose sire) Last 14 did not run on the flat.

    HURDLES Last six winners rated 134 plus over hurdles (Bob Worth 150+), 11 before that weren't.

    TIMES Last year winning times 6 minutes 8 secs suggest the going as good as did '11 6 mins 16, '10 6 mins 13 secs. '09 and '08 6mins 23 good to soft. The previous 4 runnings of this were on goodish ground and completed in times between 6 minutes 6 seconds/6 minutes 14 seconds for 3 miles and furlong. Apart from Cooldine and Star De Mohasion, the other 6 had already clocked about that time somewhere for a 3 mile chase. Star De Mohasion had timed 5 minutes 50secs in good to soft ground for 2m 6f around Fontwell. Cooldine came to Cheltenham having won G1 PJ Moriarty. Best times for this years candidates so far:-

    Dynaste - 6.25 in a heavy ground Feltham. Did about 5.57 is the 2012 Cleeve Hurdle (G/S)
    Unioniste - 6.21 3 miles at Newbury (S)
    Boston Bob - Hasnt run over a 3m chase yet but did under 5.50 when 2nd in Albert Barlett 2012 (G).
    Back In Focus - won 3m Leopardstown Xmas (S) 6 mins 30.

    COURSE FORM - 4 of last 7 placed at least in a course chase that season. Bobs Worth had 3 course hurdle wins, Bostons Angel PU in an Albert Bartlett, Cooldine 7th in the Bumper 2 years previous.

    No horse won this since Lord Noelie '00 having raced two seasons over hurdles. And he had only one run in his first hurdle season. Rolling Ball in 1991 the last winner of this to have previously spent two full seasons over hurdles.

    5 of the last 6 winners had all won graded races over hurdles (not Bostons Angel).

    TRAINERS Paul Nicholls won in '06 and '07. Willie Mullins has trained three Irish Winners since '85. Of his other 10 runners, two were second, one third and six fell (2012 Call The Police 3rd, 2011 Quel Esprit fell when still in front 3 out, Mikael D'Haguenet was struggling when fell. In '10 Citizen Vic fell when still in contention). Irish trained winners in 2010 and 2011 and a runner up, Horner Woods. Only 5 Irish victories since 1985 but 3 of the last 4.

  3. #43
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) Old Vic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    The RSA Chase (2.40) is now there for the taking with Dynaste dropping back in trip for the Jewson and I’m fancying my chances on HADRIAN’S APPROACH.

    This is a horse that’s really thrived in the last month and I think we were unlucky not to beat Unioniste at Newbury last time.

    We were travelling best until making a bad mistake two out and in the circumstances my lad did really well to get back and then go under by a short head.

    Although we are 1lb worse off, I am sure that Hadrian’s is a horse that’s improving and on the up – certainly going the right way at the right time of the season.

    I understand that Unioniste has also made a good bit of improvement since so once again there might not be a great deal between them but I wouldn’t be swopping my lad.

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