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Thread: RSA Chase 2013

  1. #11
    Hoof
    Guest
    You can forget about 8s on Dynaste now ... There was talk of the Arkle yesterday on Racing UK but not from the trainer !

  2. #12
    Hoof
    Guest
    In the RSA Chase betting, Cheltenham winner Highland Lodge was cut into 20s after seeing off Our Father, who subsequently drifted to 25s.

    Sky Bet are into 16s from 33s and their spokesman Shinners said: "The ground was very testing but you couldn't be anything but impressed."

    Rocky Creek is also a 25/1 shot after winning at Doncaster, while Lingfield winner Court In Motion is 33s with Paddy Power.

  3. #13
    Yeehaa
    Guest
    GC

    A rampant David Pipe-trained grey takes his Feltham Chase rivals apart rounding the home turn to end the day hot favourite for the RSA - now where have we heard that before?

    It didn't work out last year with Grands Crus - who beat two genuine Grade 1 rivals in Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth - but that's of limited relevance to Dynaste after this demolition job.

    Dynaste settles better than Grands Crus and blends accurate jumping with speed and stamina in a very seductive manner. But is it seductive enough to take 5-2 for the RSA so far in advance?

    On balance, I'm happy enough to wait. The stat about Feltham winners failing to follow up at the Festival will be trotted out repeatedly and, if you are that way inclined, you can also point out that the likes of Grands Crus, Time For Rupert, Long Run and Our Vic have all been turned over at short odds in the RSA in recent years.

    However, on the figures there's little doubt Dynaste fully deserves to be a hot favourite. The BHA handicapper had him on 161 before the Feltham. He must have run to a very similar mark again here and his future looks very bright indeed.

    Back In Focus was the other main RSA contender on view over Christmas and it took another relentless Walsh drive to force him past stablemate Aupcharlie on the line in Leoparstown's Topaz Novice Chase.

    The first two, who pulled well clear, will go their separate ways now with Back In Focus set to stay over three miles and Aupcharlie poised to step down in trip. But plans can change. Aupcharlie moved beautifully for a long way and looks bound to win a good novice chase to make up for this near miss.

  4. #14
    Dynaste way too short for me.

    25-1 Alternative from starbets.ie ( Steve Hughes)

    Wednesday – RSA Chase: SUPER DUTY (25-1 general)
    Donald McCain was able to remove a surprising statistic from his record when Super Duty landed a novice chase over 2m5f at Cheltenham’s December meeting – the trainer’s first ever success at the track outside of the Festival meeting itself.

    In doing so, Super Duty displayed all the battling qualities required of an RSA Chase winner, solid jumping, resolute galloping, and a real willing desire to drive for home up the final hill on heavy ground. Whilst this race will represent a first attempt at beyond 3m, everything about his profile suggests he will improve for the test. McCain also feels he will operate as well if not better on quicker ground.

    The RSA looks an ideal ante-post race at the moment, with the market being based around a short priced favourite in Dynaste. Whilst David Pipe’s charge has been undeniably impressive this season, it has been through winning over shorter distances (2m4f) or a sharp 3m (Kempton) and this test could prove too much for him, just as happened with stablemate Grands Crus last season.

  5. #15
    Yeehaa
    Guest
    David Lawrence


    The three-mile RSA Chase, due to be run on 13 March, is much less clear-cut.

    Most bookmakers have Dynaste as favourite for that contest and, with a current rating of 150, David Pipe's seven-year-old has obvious claims, in a race in which last year's winner was awarded 151.

    However, he may have to tackle Arvika Ligeonniere in the RSA - if this one's trainer Willie Mullins decides to head that way - and Mullins's charge has already achieved a figure of 151.

    Mullins, inevitably, has several options in the longer Cheltenham contest, with Back In Focus (147), Aupcharlie (146) and Champagne Fever (141) also quoted prominently in the RSA betting.

    That being the case, ante-post punting appears somewhat unwise until we know more about his plans.

    LEADING NOVICE CHASERS
    (2012/13 season ratings accurate to 8 January)
    Rank Name (age) Trainer (country) Rating
    1) Simonsig (7) Nicky Henderson (GB) 160 - Arkle
    2) Arvika Ligeonniere (8) Willie Mullins (Ireland) 151 ?
    3) Dynaste (7) David Pipe (GB) 150 RSA
    4=) Back In Focus (8) Willie Mullins (Ireland) 147 ?
    4=) Oscars Well (8) Jessica Harrington (Ireland) 147 Jewson
    4=) Unioniste (5) Paul Nicholls (GB) 147 ?
    7=) Aupcharlie (7) Willie Mullins (Ireland) 146 ?
    7=) Baily Green (7) Mouse Morris (Ireland) 146 ?
    7=) Our Father (7) David Pipe (GB) 146 ?
    10) Rajdhani Express (6) Nicky Henderson (GB) 145 Jewson ?

  6. #16
    Yeehaa
    Guest
    Dynaste (5/2), Boston Bob (7), Rocky Creek (14), Back In Focus (16), Aupcharlie (20), Hadrians Approach (20), The Westener Boy (20), Unioniste (20), Harry Topper (25), Oscara Dara (25), Sire Collonges (25), Super Duty (25), Sword Of Destiny (25), Vesper Bell (25), Arvika Ligeonniere (33), Baily Green (33), Broadbackbob (33), Champagne Fever (33), Court In Motion (33), Highland Lodge (33) , Houblon Des Obeaux (33), Keppols Hill (33), Lovcen (33), Masters Hill (33), Mount Benbulben (33), Our Father (33), Ambion Wood (40), Cantlow (40), Dedigout (40), Sea Of Thunder (40), Smad Place (40), Batonnier (50), Carlito Brigante (50), Poungach (50), Rose Of The Moon (50), Saphir River (50), Buckers Bridge (66)

  7. #17
    Just found this today . Best price 14s now

    http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenha...e-creek/853145

    1pt Rocky Creek to win the RSA Chase @ 25/1

    The RSA Chase often has a good betting shape because horses tend to be priced on hurdles form and form in small field, steadily run novice chases. Having watched so many good horses canter round in their comfort zone in uncompetitive novice chases, and then seen them struggle in the heat of battle in the RSA, I reckon the importance of being battle hardened over fences (not hurdles) is underestimated.

    The recent results back this theory up. It’s 15 years since Florida Pearl won this after just 2 chase runs. In the last 10 runnings, 3 winners had run in three chases, 4 in four and the other 3 in five or more. 6 had run by the end of October and the earliest date a winner had had their last run was the 27th January.

    In an era where training methods allow so much more of a horse’s preparation to be done at home, some trainers haven’t cottoned onto the fact that that doesn’t work for every type of race at the Festival. We’ve seen plenty of classy, inexperienced, short priced favourites bite the dust recently – Our Vic 11/8 (2 runs), Commercial Flyer 9/2 (1 run), Punchestowns 2/1 (2 runs) and Time For Rupert 7/4 (2 runs.) Although Grands Crus (6/5) had had 3 runs last season he hadn’t run since Boxing Day.

    The wrong approach is to be slavish to statistics and simply find the closest match to what’s occurred before. The point is that to win this race horses need plenty of experience, ideally over a longish season, so they are battle hardened for the big day. The right approach is to consider each horse in that context, rather than purely looking at their form.

    It’s also worth noting how successful the Irish are. They’ve won 4 of the last 10, including 3 of the last 4. Irish beginners’ chases are fiercely competitive with big fields and good horses running against each other. Having tougher races during their novice campaign might explain their success here, (and why some of those horses don’t train on – of those 4 winners, Rule Supreme’s win in the Irish Hennessy is the only chase win afterwards.) Boston’s Angel and Weapon’s Amnesty had run 5 times each – they looked classic cases of battle-hardened horses beating classier, inexperienced rivals.

    On that basis, we shouldn’t get carried away with Dynaste (5/2) who’s been hugely impressive in winning 3 good novice chases easily, giving Court In Motion, (Grade 2 winner since,) 7lb and thrashing him at Cheltenham and then hosing up in the Feltham. He’s comfortably the best novice we’ve seen at staying trips so far, but he’s looked exactly the sort of speedy type that does get turned over in this.

    Dynaste was running in top open hurdle races last season. He’s had 11 runs over hurdles, more than any other winner in modern times. That’s not an issue in itself but implies he might be vulnerable to a less exposed type improving past him. 6 of the last 13 winners have started at 10/1, 14/1, 16/1, 16/1, 25/1 & 33/1 so I have an inbuilt prejudice against taking 5/2 against any horse ante-post unless it looks like another Denman. Soft ground could see Dynaste switch to the Jewson, which suggests stamina concerns and makes him really opposable at this stage.

    The next two in the market, Boston Bob and Back In Focus represent the Mullins / Wylie combination. Boston Bob (8/1) was described by Willie Mullins as the best novice hurdler he’d ever brought to the Festival last year, but didn’t look to enjoy himself in the Albert Bartlett and has a question mark over the track, (and likely good ground). He jumped well but looked one paced when edging out You Must Know Me at Navan, (2m4f, heavy). The runner up was unexposed and finished lame next time so its hard to evaluate the form. He’s going to struggle to get enough experience under his belt and if the ground is soft enough for Back In Focus, it wouldn’t surprise me if he bypasses the race.

    Back In Focus (14/1) is a real stayer who’s jumped well 3 times on bad ground in Ireland, beating the classy Lyreen Legend over an inadequate 2m6f at Punchestown and then chinning Aupcharlie in a 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown. He’s just the right type for this provided the ground is soft. That’s more likely than usual given the high water table but it’s still unlikely. Whilst Willie Mullins said he had a good ground action, Ruby Walsh didn’t think he’d handle a sound surface and he did bomb on his only try on it. His chance is better judged closer to the race. Mullins other top novices Aupcharlie (20/1) and Arvika Ligeonniere (33/1) are likely to drop back in trip to the Jewson and Arkle respectively.

    Hadrian’s Approach (20/1) was 2nd in the Feltham and whilst no winner of that has ever followed up in the RSA, a number of beaten horses have done, relishing the extra stamina test (including the same stable’s Trabolgan.) He looks to stay really well though he has the tendency to thrown in the odd howler and would benefit from more match practice. He has sound each way claims but may not be targeted at the race.

    Highland Lodge (20/1) has plenty of stamina and having been a close 3rd to Harry Topper (who apparently won’t go to the Festival this year) in a Grade 2 at Newbury, thrashed Our Father at Cheltenham. Both look talented stayers but Highland Lodge apparently won’t run unless the ground is soft so he can’t be backed ante-post. Our Father (33/1) clearly needs to be really fresh (won 1st time out all 3 seasons and a beaten favourite every other start.) Ideally he’d not run again before a target in the spring but that would probably leave him too inexperienced for this off two runs. He might be the type for the Hennessy next season.

    Super Duty (25/1) had been beaten by the Nicholls pair Bury Parade and Poungach, (both useful but subsequently not looking Grade 1 horses), before bolting up at Cheltenham, (2m5f, heavy.) Visually, he was impressive but his main rivals jumped appallingly so he was probably flattered. I’m not convinced that he wants a step up in trip but the vibes are that he runs in this. He’s best judged after another run.

    Sword of Destiny (25/1) had a huge reputation as a staying novice hurdler at the start of last season when an impressive winner of a 3m Grade 3 at Cork. He looked set to beat the useful Bucker’s Bridge at Punchestown before landing in a heap at the last and going down by 1l, (2m4f, heavy). He then dropped back to 2m1f and showed his class to breeze past Darwin’s Fox at Navan, (heavy). If connections indicated he was being targeted at the race he’d be one to consider.

    Houblon Des Obeaux (33/1) had the benefit of a run but had to give 4lb to Poungach and Court In Motion when winning a Grade 2 at Wincanton over 2m5f, (good to soft). He would have finished closer than 4l 4th to Harry Topper in another Grade 2 at Newbury but for ploughing through 2 out and then was running on strongly on unsuitably heavy ground at Lingfield when failing to catch Court in Motion (who received 7lb), going down by 1l. I’d be tempted but the vibes are that he may go for the 4 miler.

    Paul Nicholls has 3 at 25/1 or shorter. Unioniste (20/1) won the big December open handicap at Cheltenham off, (after taking the allowances into account,) 131, (2m5f, heavy.) That was a great performance for a 4 year old but Nicholls made it clear he’d been trained for that and I doubt he’ll run. Sire Collonges (25/1) was a good winner at Cheltenham in October but was beaten miles when trying to give 8lb to a fresh Our Father there the following month. He doesn’t look quite good enough for the RSA.

    On his seasonal debut Rocky Creek (25/1) seemed to blow up when edged out by the smart Harry Topper at Exeter. He then beat the useful Molotof (who gave 2lb) easily by 4l at Doncaster, (good to soft) despite being unsuited by a sedate early gallop. Whilst Molotof was beaten an easy 16l by Dynaste in the Feltham, heavy ground extends gaps between horses and Molotof wasn’t suited by the slog at Kempton, so there’s less between Rocky Creek and Dynaste than it may appear.

    Crucially, Rocky Creek is much less exposed after only 5 runs under rules and looks to be on a rapid upward curve. He jumps well, travels well and whilst not a flashy quickener, is just the sort of relentless galloper that does well in this.

    When I started looking at this market after the Christmas action, I was interested in 4 or 5. However, I’m keen to take the front 3 in the market on and Rocky Creek really jumps out at 25/1. As he’s entered on Saturday and Hills are going a stand out price, it makes sense to take the plunge now
    Last edited by mayo; 01-13-2013 at 01:50 PM.

  8. #18
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Apr 2012
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    RACE TRENDS:
    24 of the last 25 winners won or finished second last time out
    11 of the last 17 winners were rated below 134 over hurdles, however the last six were not
    Only 1 winner (Florida Pearl) with less than 3 chase starts since 1992
    All 18 Feltham winners have been beaten (6 horses beaten in that race have won)
    The last 48 winners had run in the calendar year
    Seven year olds have won 11 of the last 13
    No winner over eight since 1992
    Only 2 six year olds have won since 1978
    11 of the last 13 winners raced prominently
    Only 5 Irish victories since 1985 (3 of last 4)
    3 of the 5 Irish winners were trained by Willie Mullins
    5 of the 13 Willie Mullins runners have finished in the first two

  9. #19
    Anyone got a view on which horse Gigginstown will run in this ...

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Vic View Post
    Anyone got a view on which horse Gigginstown will run in this ...
    Sea of Thunder ?

    Dedigout ?

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