I do all my betting with a firm with 3 letters and 3 numbers in its name which don't do "to win any race" at cheltenham. Where would you go to bet for this service? And your everyday betting?
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Win Any Race 2018
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Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View PostHe won many houses in his first 2 festival wins, most of those who won placed all on him winning one of the weakest CC in recent history and lost all back and more.
How do you know that?
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostAt 170 he'd still be one of the best horses in training Oceans. It seems to me you are writing him off after one poor run, where he had a valid excuse (stress fracture of the pelvis).
I'm not a Douvan super fan but it's hard to argue that he's overrated. He may not be the best horse in training but he'd be in the top 5 imo.
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Public knowledge?! Of all bets punters placed on a horse?!
Its odds didnt tell you anything, other than the fact the bookies were running scared and didn't want to lay what appeared a good thing. It's pure conjecture to state, as if its fact, that all Douvan fans lost everything they had made on him, and more, on one bad run.
I can you tell you I won a nice sum on him in the Supreme, and didn't back him either year after that as he was so short.
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Originally posted by oceans View PostYes but coming back from injury & first run there's all reasons to believe he won't achieve the highest mark that he ran to only once before. Lets say he losses in the Tingle, his odds will become acceptable either for the Ryanair or CC. Just no point waiting for the pay on Friday to place on these current odds, unless you're a mug.
If he is shorter then are people still mugs because you don't think he will win either race?
You say you think 6/1 would be value, is that on his relative chance to win either race, or on what you think his SP would be?
To me depending on how you bet/ play a market ... 11/4 could very easily be argued as good value ... especially with your argument being him being over bet a key factor in itLast edited by Kevloaf; 23 November 2017, 11:59 AM.
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Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View PostPublic knowledge?! Of all bets punters placed on a horse?!
Its odds didnt tell you anything, other than the fact the bookies were running scared and didn't want to lay what appeared a good thing. It's pure conjecture to state, as if its fact, that all Douvan fans lost everything they had made on him, and more, on one bad run.
I can you tell you I won a nice sum on him in the Supreme, and didn't back him either year after that as he was so short.
I thought he was a certainty in the qmcc but I never backed him as he was never more than a shade over evens antepost . And the plan was to back sprinter sacre before he got retired.
To level it out I did have a very large ammount to me. on faugheen the year before and despite backing him previously I am down on the horse.
But may Hopefully make that back this year.Last edited by Scooby91; 23 November 2017, 12:02 PM.https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!
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Maybe not you CCM, but the big players most certainly have. As for us small timers I get it you didn't followed him after the Supreme, but I also don't see the value now at 11/4 and the poster I responded to said he should be odds on in any race.. my posts were mostly relating to that.
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How do you know I'm a small timer? And how on earth do you know what most of the big players did?
Your posts didn't relate to just that. You made sweeping generalisations based on very little, then called others 'mugs' because they have a different opinion to you.
If Douvan hoses up in the Tingle Creek, he will be odds on and 11/4 will look a shrewd bet. It's not for me at the price, but I can see why others would go for it.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostLet's say he wins it though .... he'll be shorter than he is now.
If he is shorter then are people still mugs because you don't think he will win either race?
You say you think 6/1 would be value, is that on his relative chance to win either race, or on what you think his SP would be?
To me depending on how you bet/ play a market ... 11/4 could very easily be argued as good value ... especially with your argument being him being over bet a key factor in it
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Originally posted by oceans View PostEveryone sees value differently I hope you agree with that. So if I don't see the value with 11/4, you can imagine that even if he wins the Tingle I still won't see him as value but for others it might still. As I said he'll have his season debut, in a big race like Tingle Creek, from injury, couple chasers around that can run in the high 160s and beat him fto.
Won't find out until the festival anyway.https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostWhether you are right or wrong, he'll shorten up after a reappearance and he won't need to meet a 'top 2 miler' until the festival.
Therefore his price will be shorter. If you're adamant the bubble is burst on merit and wouldn't win any of the 3 races, back to lay ... or lay him now?
I'm not sure how many houses were lost though in his 15 races?
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Originally posted by Leman14 View PostIt's all about opinions at the end of the day...
If we all bet they same way... it would get quite boring!!
Oceans.. have you made any plays in this market?
Samcro at 4s - hopefully continues the winning streak and for either novice races will have a huge shot.
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Originally posted by archie View PostThe problem with Willie is that he'll always give you his honest current opinion but that changes on a day to day basis
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Originally posted by oceans View PostMin at 7s - other than Altior in the CC and UDS in the Ryanair there aren't other big dangers.
Samcro at 4s - hopefully continues the winning streak and for either novice races will have a huge shot.
Just out of interesthttps://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!
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