Win Any Race 2018

[Scooby91]

I don't mean to be rude oceans, but are you on the wind up? Are you trying to suggest that was as good as Douvan actually is? A horse that can't beat Traffic Fluide or Sir Valentino?

I think it's pretty obvious that bubbles weren't burst, but the horse was plainly wrong on the day. And finished lame.

It seems odd to forget all the scintillating performances he has produced and use that one run as some kind of proof he isn't as good as some might suggest. Especially when he won 12 or 13 races previously.

Clearly wasn't his true running. But will he come back as good as he was? And is that good enough to beat altior?
That's why he's 11/4 any race.
If we knew the answer then would be a fantastic price, but I personally think he will need to improve on what he's done so far to beat altior.
11/4 is a fair price imo without being exceptional.

[Scooby91]

The beauty of kevs bet, is that douvan is set to avoid the tingle creek like the plague according to the real stable tour wich is using the pp odds.
He will go to the hillyway bolt up at long odds on against nothing that would get within a fence of altior and be hailed he's back better than ever, "he's a monster" and ve half the odds he is now for learning nothing what so ever about his claims to winning this year's qmcc.

Of have no problem with that what so ever aslong as they drift altior out accordingly.

But in terms of current odds if you want one to shorten dramatically douvan is the one.

Its not for me as I'm happy to wait to back altior. And stick with min.
But if you was hat way inclined you could back douvan now wait for altior to drift and end up with both around even money coupled.

[Kevloaf]

Is this a parallel world in which Douvan bubble didn't burst? I guess failing to win one of the worst renewals of CC means he was injured or just a blip. If he really was injured how could he have jumped the last fence in the CC as beautifully, I wonder. People do like to overrate this animal and lose their houses in the process.

Whether you are right or wrong, he'll shorten up after a reappearance and he won't need to meet a 'top 2 miler' until the festival.

Therefore his price will be shorter. If you're adamant the bubble is burst on merit and wouldn't win any of the 3 races, back to lay ... or lay him now?

I'm not sure how many houses were lost though in his 15 races?

[Innoko]

Value.

There can't be many arguments that 11/4 any race is exactly that. As he will surely be shorter in the CC or Ryanair come March.

But.... I don't think he will win either (rightly or wrongly).

Question is, should I still be backing Douvan anyway? As he may well win!

With the idea being to get to the race with around three horses running for profit at bigger prices than SP?

Interested in opinions.

[archie]

I'm not sure we can say he is the best horse in racing just yet but he is certainly one of them.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/top-horses/timeforms_top_chasers

[Scooby91]

If you want one that will shorten and I can say it now as iv just taken the last what I want at 29.0 been backing form 55.0 down.
Is thistlecrack for the stayers.

Atm about 10% he goes there.
In my eyes he's an odds on chance to win the long distance hurdle against UNWIMH.
I'd rate him a 6/4 chance with a run for the stayers now.

10% chance × 6/4 is about 16.0.
When he wins the long distance hurdle he will shorten right up even though he's not going to the stayers.
If he dosent go close in the king george or has a minor setback anytime after the long walk. That 10% chance will increase.

And I don't want to be sweating on a book of
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1
Let's dance 103.0
Win only.

[Hurricane fly]

Is this a parallel world in which Douvan bubble didn't burst? I guess failing to win one of the worst renewals of CC means he was injured or just a blip. If he really was injured how could he have jumped the last fence in the CC as beautifully, I wonder. People do like to overrate this animal and lose their houses in the process.

Well I certainly don’t live in a world where Special Tiara is better than Douvan and I don’t think Fox Norton improved 21+ lengths between the Arkle and the CC

I trust what I saw in the prior 10 starts over his last one which - while you might not believe them - has excuses.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm happy to wait for the return of the horse before saying one bad run, injury or not, means he is overhyped etc... I'm pretty sure he'll come back to the Douvan we knew before the QMCC last season.

I really want him to take on the Tingle Creek, instead of the easier, more boring route of the Hilly Way! 'IF' he turns up to the Tingle Creek I'll probably back him for the Ryanair as it's the same route UDS took last season.

[archie]

I may be wrong - I often am - but I can see almost no circumstances in which Douvan would go for the Ryanair. It sounds uncomfortably like Ricci and Vautour but UDS and Douvan are two of the most loved horses in the yard and I don't see them in direct opposition.

[ComplyOrDie]

I may be wrong - I often am - but I can see almost no circumstances in which Douvan would go for the Ryanair. It sounds uncomfortably like Ricci and Vautour but UDS and Douvan are two of the most loved horses in the yard and I don't see them in direct opposition.

No way in which UDS goes back in trip to the CC, maybe looking for some retribution for his defeat by Sprinter in 2016?

I actually prefer the 5/1 'Any Race' for UDS than the 11/4 'Any Race' for Douvan though.

[Scooby91]

I'm happy to wait for the return of the horse before saying one bad run, injury or not, means he is overhyped etc... I'm pretty sure he'll come back to the Douvan we knew before the QMCC last season.

I really want him to take on the Tingle Creek, instead of the easier, more boring route of the Hilly Way! 'IF' he turns up to the Tingle Creek I'll probably back him for the Ryanair as it's the same route UDS took last season.

Mullins been quoted a few times this week saying tingle creek the target

[archie]

The problem with Willie is that he'll always give you his honest current opinion but that changes on a day to day basis particularly fast work days.
At the end of September I had shares in a high class 2 mile hurdler (Bunk Off Early), a staying hurdler (Kemboy) and a novice chaser (Cadmium). Early November, when I was there, that had changed to 2 novice chasers as Kemboy schooled very well. Early last week that had changed to 3 novice chasers as Bunk Off Early had schooled very well. In the RP stable tour, which I think was the middle of last week, we have Kemboy definitely chasing, BOE and Cadmium undecided.
It's a brave man who can predict how the dice will roll in 3 months time.

As far as UDS is concerned, both Min and Douvan would be ahead of him at 2 miles.

[oceans]

Therefore his price will be shorter. If you're adamant the bubble is burst on merit and wouldn't win any of the 3 races, back to lay ... or lay him now?

I'm not sure how many houses were lost though in his 15 races?

There's no value about him unfortunately, he's been over rated to a big degree both by public and rating organizations. If he loses he goes to Ryanair, most likely getting done by UDS. If he goes to CC he'll get done by Altior. Anything over 6/1 would be the value about him on this market.

He won many houses in his first 2 festival wins, most of those who won placed all on him winning one of the weakest CC in recent history and lost all back and more. The rest of his races were in Ireland with no serious opposition and no serious cash exchanged.

Well I certainly don’t live in a world where Special Tiara is better than Douvan and I don’t think Fox Norton improved 21+ lengths between the Arkle and the CC

Fox Norton got beat by Douvan as a novice and was rated in the mid 140, now he's rated 169. Thats 30 lengths. Douvan improved as well but he's currently over rated at 174. He's at best 170 horse on what he's shown up to now, he needs to produce a winning performance beating FN by 5 lengths to prove he deserves the 174 figure.

[Can't Catch Me]

He won many houses in his first 2 festival wins, most of those who won placed all on him winning one of the weakest CC in recent history and lost all back and more.

How do you know that?

[Faugheen_Machine]

At 170 he'd still be one of the best horses in training Oceans. It seems to me you are writing him off after one poor run, where he had a valid excuse (stress fracture of the pelvis).

I'm not a Douvan super fan but it's hard to argue that he's overrated. He may not be the best horse in training but he'd be in the top 5 imo.