Win Any Race 2018

[jono]

A horse who divides opinion so this won't be for everyone...

Yorkhill - 6/1 Any Race - William Hill

A 6/1 ante post price this far out won't be for all but for the horse in question, I think it's too big. A quick look at his possible targets and current best prices:

Champion Hurdle - 10/1
Champion Chase - 10/1
Ryanair - 8/1
Gold Cup - 8/1

I expect the decision of where Yorkhill goes to be drawn out for much of the season - It took until mid December last year for Mullins to commit Yorkhill over fences so expect similar as I do believe it's a very tough decision to make. In my opinion i think both Ruby Walsh and Graham Wylie still want to stay chasing and target the Gold Cup and it'll be whether Mullins can get them to agree to switch.

The Morgiana would be the logical starting race for him if he does go over hurdles - around 20th November so a decision on reverting back to hurdles you would imagine will be made by then if there are no setbacks but even if they decide to stay chasing - I expect we'll still be wondering whether it's Gold Cup/Ryanair throughout the season.

SkyBet also have him in the Any Race market at 9/4 which is the kind of price I had expected.

6/1 takes out the uncertainty and really is just too big - whichever race he lined up in, at the very worst he'd be no bigger than 6/1 on the day and likely a fair bit shorter imo...

2pts Win

(I was tempted with going each way for this which would give you your money back if placing, but don't fancy tying up the place part of the bet just to get my stake back and no profit)

[Kevloaf]

I think you're right, in that as soon as a target gets declared (which at latest you can determine from his first appearance being over hurdles or fences) then he WILL shorten up.

Would he be much shorter than 8/1 or 6/1 if he did get declared for the Gold Cup though? I am sure on the day, the Ruby/Mullins/previous winner factor would come in to play but if Sizing John has two legs of the triple crown, OR Might Bite has put in a HUGE performance at Christmas, OR Thistlecrack has returned looking as impressive as before then would Yorkhill be value even at 6/1?

I hadn't really considered him running in the Champion Chase, and the Ryanair is once again a thorn because you'd like to think there was no chance of him running in it, when there is a CH or GC to aim at, but he's put a good one in it before and they could decide to 'take their time' AND having the C&D win which was his best performance?

If I was going to back Yorkhill now, it would be in this market - I do have 1 pt win at 20s for CH and 1pt E/W 20s for the CH. I am tempted, just so that I can sit back and not worry about what this horse does for the rest of the season...

If he did go for the Gold Cup, would he take Djakadam's prep route, the John Durkan first over 2 and a half .... I think they'll have had to avoid any big clashes and I just can't see Yorkhill fav for the Gold Cup that way? If he did face say Our Duke or Thistlecrack and came off worse, then I think they'd take the Ryanair in...



AND, at Double the price, Our Duke's target is confirmed, and he has a better chance in the Gold Cup at 12s than Yorkhill does at 8s haha.



I am torn now.

Having looked at it, I decided I'd have 2 pts on Samcro at 12s whilst I mull it over

[ryanh97]

Is there still 12s on Samcro?

[jono]

Samcro was 12/1 in William Hills Any race market a few weeks back but now 10's. 7's with SkyBet from what I've seen Ryan

[jono]

For me in terms of his position in the market for each race:

Champion Hurdle:
The minute they announce (if they do) that his aim is the CH he'd be cut and be clear second fav surely before he even raced again? I think Buveur D'air probably has the beating of him but outside of possibly Apples Jade it's hard to see what beats him in the trial races in Ireland particularly as they are all predominately on left handed tracks so he will get shorter and shorter through the season. So I think if he goes here you're sure to have a good bet at 6/1.

Champion Chase:
The most unlikely target and again a Henderson horse as fav who I would favour against Yorkhill. It would take quite a chain of events to see Yorkhill here you'd imagine with Douvan, Min and Great Field more likely runners but if they weren't to feature for whatever reason, again you're beating the 6/1 and he's a strong second fancy in a thin race

Ryanair:
If he turned up here he's clear fav and he wins at a short price

Gold Cup:
The one race that he could potentially be bigger and has plenty of depth to the race HOWEVER for Yorkhill to run here he'd HAVE to prove himself to having a very strong chance of winning (else they'll go Ryanair). If he's running here then I can't see anything other than the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown being his final prep run towards the Gold Cup (having taken in the John Durkan like you say). He'll be taking on Our Duke and co and though I'm not saying he will beat him and win the race...If he wins he's one of the favs for the Gold Cup and shorter than 6/1, if he doesn't win, again it's drop him back to the Ryanair. I just don't see him lining up in the Gold Cup unless Mullins and Walsh think he's got a massive chance I.e I don't see him turning up as say a 10/1 hope

I can easily see why anyone would swerve the bet when right now there's more likely winners in 3/4 races (Buveur D'Air, Altior in particular) but the appeal of having him covered any race at a decent price for his talent and a dual festival winner taking out the worry all season outweighs any doubt for me at least. He'll always be close to the head of each market

For what it's worth I think he will stay chasing and target the Gold Cup (and have a good chance) but if he doesn't impress in his prep runs he'll come back down to the Ryanair...(which he'd win)

[Kevloaf]

For me in terms of his position in the market for each race:

Champion Hurdle:
The minute they announce (if they do) that his aim is the CH he'd be cut and be clear second fav surely before he even raced again? I think Buveur D'air probably has the beating of him but outside of possibly Apples Jade it's hard to see what beats him in the trial races in Ireland particularly as they are all predominately on left handed tracks so he will get shorter and shorter through the season. So I think if he goes here you're sure to have a good bet at 6/1.

Yes I agree with all of that. Wouldn't run against Faugheen either. Maybe biggest challenge would come from Arctic Fire or Wicklow Brave through the season. I think he'd have a chance of going off very close to fav so 6/1 would be good.

Champion Chase:
The most unlikely target and again a Henderson horse as fav who I would favour against Yorkhill. It would take quite a chain of events to see Yorkhill here you'd imagine with Douvan, Min and Great Field more likely runners but if they weren't to feature for whatever reason, again you're beating the 6/1 and he's a strong second fancy in a thin race

Yep, he might as well be 600/1 though, as he wouldn't be winning it.

Ryanair:
If he turned up here he's clear fav and he wins at a short price

Yep - wins.

Gold Cup:
The one race that he could potentially be bigger and has plenty of depth to the race HOWEVER for Yorkhill to run here he'd HAVE to prove himself to having a very strong chance of winning (else they'll go Ryanair). If he's running here then I can't see anything other than the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown being his final prep run towards the Gold Cup (having taken in the John Durkan like you say). He'll be taking on Our Duke and co and though I'm not saying he will beat him and win the race...If he wins he's one of the favs for the Gold Cup and shorter than 6/1, if he doesn't win, again it's drop him back to the Ryanair. I just don't see him lining up in the Gold Cup unless Mullins and Walsh think he's got a massive chance I.e I don't see him turning up as say a 10/1 hope

I can easily see why anyone would swerve the bet when right now there's more likely winners in 3/4 races (Buveur D'Air, Altior in particular) but the appeal of having him covered any race at a decent price for his talent and a dual festival winner taking out the worry all season outweighs any doubt for me at least. He'll always be close to the head of each market

For what it's worth I think he will stay chasing and target the Gold Cup (and have a good chance) but if he doesn't impress in his prep runs he'll come back down to the Ryanair...(which he'd win)

Yeah I agree too ... you'd expect him to HAVE to have a better chance than Djakadam or he wouldn't run. I can't see him being 2nd string in any race either... whereas Djakadam could easily be.

I do think they're more likely to go for the CH at this stage but nothing would surprise me.



5 points on Yorkhill any race

[jono]

5 points on Yorkhill any race

Excellent...

I do think they're more likely to go for the CH at this stage but nothing would surprise me.

Will be plenty of debate for sure come October-November

[Geordieboy83]

This will sure divide opinion all through the NH Season. 6/1 any race could be interesting. I do like Samcro any race also

[charlie]

Blow by Blow 14/1 on Hills. Beaten some very decent horses on the flat. Lot of hype about this horse that has been by and large forgotten.

[Kevloaf]

Blow by Blow 14/1 on Hills. Beaten some very decent horses on the flat. Lot of hype about this horse that has been by and large forgotten.

Yes that beating of Moon racer showed quite a lot of ability in particular.

When they declared in Jan that he wasn't going to go over hurdles he was most likely to be their Neptune horse with Barra taking in the mares novice race. She ended up in the Neptune as wer know: BBB is 20/1 for the Neptune again and 20 for the Albert Bartlett. Certainly feasible he could slot in to either this season as Samcro might be 'better ' so cam see why 14/1 would appeal