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Win Any Race 2018

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  • Win Any Race 2018

    A horse who divides opinion so this won't be for everyone...

    Yorkhill - 6/1 Any Race - William Hill

    A 6/1 ante post price this far out won't be for all but for the horse in question, I think it's too big. A quick look at his possible targets and current best prices:

    Champion Hurdle - 10/1
    Champion Chase - 10/1
    Ryanair - 8/1
    Gold Cup - 8/1

    I expect the decision of where Yorkhill goes to be drawn out for much of the season - It took until mid December last year for Mullins to commit Yorkhill over fences so expect similar as I do believe it's a very tough decision to make. In my opinion i think both Ruby Walsh and Graham Wylie still want to stay chasing and target the Gold Cup and it'll be whether Mullins can get them to agree to switch.

    The Morgiana would be the logical starting race for him if he does go over hurdles - around 20th November so a decision on reverting back to hurdles you would imagine will be made by then if there are no setbacks but even if they decide to stay chasing - I expect we'll still be wondering whether it's Gold Cup/Ryanair throughout the season.

    SkyBet also have him in the Any Race market at 9/4 which is the kind of price I had expected.

    6/1 takes out the uncertainty and really is just too big - whichever race he lined up in, at the very worst he'd be no bigger than 6/1 on the day and likely a fair bit shorter imo...

    2pts Win

    (I was tempted with going each way for this which would give you your money back if placing, but don't fancy tying up the place part of the bet just to get my stake back and no profit)

  • #2
    I think you're right, in that as soon as a target gets declared (which at latest you can determine from his first appearance being over hurdles or fences) then he WILL shorten up.

    Would he be much shorter than 8/1 or 6/1 if he did get declared for the Gold Cup though? I am sure on the day, the Ruby/Mullins/previous winner factor would come in to play but if Sizing John has two legs of the triple crown, OR Might Bite has put in a HUGE performance at Christmas, OR Thistlecrack has returned looking as impressive as before then would Yorkhill be value even at 6/1?

    I hadn't really considered him running in the Champion Chase, and the Ryanair is once again a thorn because you'd like to think there was no chance of him running in it, when there is a CH or GC to aim at, but he's put a good one in it before and they could decide to 'take their time' AND having the C&D win which was his best performance?

    If I was going to back Yorkhill now, it would be in this market - I do have 1 pt win at 20s for CH and 1pt E/W 20s for the CH. I am tempted, just so that I can sit back and not worry about what this horse does for the rest of the season...

    If he did go for the Gold Cup, would he take Djakadam's prep route, the John Durkan first over 2 and a half .... I think they'll have had to avoid any big clashes and I just can't see Yorkhill fav for the Gold Cup that way? If he did face say Our Duke or Thistlecrack and came off worse, then I think they'd take the Ryanair in...



    AND, at Double the price, Our Duke's target is confirmed, and he has a better chance in the Gold Cup at 12s than Yorkhill does at 8s haha.



    I am torn now.

    Having looked at it, I decided I'd have 2 pts on Samcro at 12s whilst I mull it over

    Comment


    • #3
      Is there still 12s on Samcro?

      Comment


      • #4
        Samcro was 12/1 in William Hills Any race market a few weeks back but now 10's. 7's with SkyBet from what I've seen Ryan

        Comment


        • #5
          For me in terms of his position in the market for each race:

          Champion Hurdle:
          The minute they announce (if they do) that his aim is the CH he'd be cut and be clear second fav surely before he even raced again? I think Buveur D'air probably has the beating of him but outside of possibly Apples Jade it's hard to see what beats him in the trial races in Ireland particularly as they are all predominately on left handed tracks so he will get shorter and shorter through the season. So I think if he goes here you're sure to have a good bet at 6/1.

          Champion Chase:
          The most unlikely target and again a Henderson horse as fav who I would favour against Yorkhill. It would take quite a chain of events to see Yorkhill here you'd imagine with Douvan, Min and Great Field more likely runners but if they weren't to feature for whatever reason, again you're beating the 6/1 and he's a strong second fancy in a thin race

          Ryanair:
          If he turned up here he's clear fav and he wins at a short price

          Gold Cup:
          The one race that he could potentially be bigger and has plenty of depth to the race HOWEVER for Yorkhill to run here he'd HAVE to prove himself to having a very strong chance of winning (else they'll go Ryanair). If he's running here then I can't see anything other than the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown being his final prep run towards the Gold Cup (having taken in the John Durkan like you say). He'll be taking on Our Duke and co and though I'm not saying he will beat him and win the race...If he wins he's one of the favs for the Gold Cup and shorter than 6/1, if he doesn't win, again it's drop him back to the Ryanair. I just don't see him lining up in the Gold Cup unless Mullins and Walsh think he's got a massive chance I.e I don't see him turning up as say a 10/1 hope

          I can easily see why anyone would swerve the bet when right now there's more likely winners in 3/4 races (Buveur D'Air, Altior in particular) but the appeal of having him covered any race at a decent price for his talent and a dual festival winner taking out the worry all season outweighs any doubt for me at least. He'll always be close to the head of each market

          For what it's worth I think he will stay chasing and target the Gold Cup (and have a good chance) but if he doesn't impress in his prep runs he'll come back down to the Ryanair...(which he'd win)

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by jono View Post
            For me in terms of his position in the market for each race:

            Champion Hurdle:
            The minute they announce (if they do) that his aim is the CH he'd be cut and be clear second fav surely before he even raced again? I think Buveur D'air probably has the beating of him but outside of possibly Apples Jade it's hard to see what beats him in the trial races in Ireland particularly as they are all predominately on left handed tracks so he will get shorter and shorter through the season. So I think if he goes here you're sure to have a good bet at 6/1.
            Yes I agree with all of that. Wouldn't run against Faugheen either. Maybe biggest challenge would come from Arctic Fire or Wicklow Brave through the season. I think he'd have a chance of going off very close to fav so 6/1 would be good.

            Champion Chase:
            The most unlikely target and again a Henderson horse as fav who I would favour against Yorkhill. It would take quite a chain of events to see Yorkhill here you'd imagine with Douvan, Min and Great Field more likely runners but if they weren't to feature for whatever reason, again you're beating the 6/1 and he's a strong second fancy in a thin race
            Yep, he might as well be 600/1 though, as he wouldn't be winning it.

            Ryanair:
            If he turned up here he's clear fav and he wins at a short price
            Yep - wins.

            Gold Cup:
            The one race that he could potentially be bigger and has plenty of depth to the race HOWEVER for Yorkhill to run here he'd HAVE to prove himself to having a very strong chance of winning (else they'll go Ryanair). If he's running here then I can't see anything other than the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown being his final prep run towards the Gold Cup (having taken in the John Durkan like you say). He'll be taking on Our Duke and co and though I'm not saying he will beat him and win the race...If he wins he's one of the favs for the Gold Cup and shorter than 6/1, if he doesn't win, again it's drop him back to the Ryanair. I just don't see him lining up in the Gold Cup unless Mullins and Walsh think he's got a massive chance I.e I don't see him turning up as say a 10/1 hope

            I can easily see why anyone would swerve the bet when right now there's more likely winners in 3/4 races (Buveur D'Air, Altior in particular) but the appeal of having him covered any race at a decent price for his talent and a dual festival winner taking out the worry all season outweighs any doubt for me at least. He'll always be close to the head of each market

            For what it's worth I think he will stay chasing and target the Gold Cup (and have a good chance) but if he doesn't impress in his prep runs he'll come back down to the Ryanair...(which he'd win)
            Yeah I agree too ... you'd expect him to HAVE to have a better chance than Djakadam or he wouldn't run. I can't see him being 2nd string in any race either... whereas Djakadam could easily be.

            I do think they're more likely to go for the CH at this stage but nothing would surprise me.



            5 points on Yorkhill any race

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              5 points on Yorkhill any race
              Excellent...

              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              I do think they're more likely to go for the CH at this stage but nothing would surprise me.
              Will be plenty of debate for sure come October-November

              Comment


              • #8
                This will sure divide opinion all through the NH Season. 6/1 any race could be interesting. I do like Samcro any race also

                Comment


                • #9
                  Blow by Blow 14/1 on Hills. Beaten some very decent horses on the flat. Lot of hype about this horse that has been by and large forgotten.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by charlie View Post
                    Blow by Blow 14/1 on Hills. Beaten some very decent horses on the flat. Lot of hype about this horse that has been by and large forgotten.
                    Yes that beating of Moon racer showed quite a lot of ability in particular.

                    When they declared in Jan that he wasn't going to go over hurdles he was most likely to be their Neptune horse with Barra taking in the mares novice race. She ended up in the Neptune as wer know: BBB is 20/1 for the Neptune again and 20 for the Albert Bartlett. Certainly feasible he could slot in to either this season as Samcro might be 'better ' so cam see why 14/1 would appeal

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Yes that beating of Moon racer showed quite a lot of ability in particular.

                      When they declared in Jan that he wasn't going to go over hurdles he was most likely to be their Neptune horse with Barra taking in the mares novice race. She ended up in the Neptune as wer know: BBB is 20/1 for the Neptune again and 20 for the Albert Bartlett. Certainly feasible he could slot in to either this season as Samcro might be 'better ' so cam see why 14/1 would appeal
                      Yeh that beating of Moon Racer was impressive the way he dug in. I think the injury stuff pre-cheltenham was minor and the decision to wait till this season was to preserve his novice status. Some firms are priced 7/1 on the win any race market so I think hills are being very generous at 14's. BBB beat Bacardys who went on to win the grade 1 champion novice hurdle, moon racer who was deemed good enough to race in the Champion Hurdle, Presenting Percy who won at Cheltenham and others that have gone on to win well since. If he can take to hurdling he will be a force to be reckoned with and as you rightly point out, given there are 2 or potentially 3 routes he can go down, the 'to win any race' price becomes very appealing.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Does anyone know if the 'win any race' market is available with Hills in their shops?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          No idea Faugheen_Machine but I will find out and post up later.

                          I will be snaffling up 14's and 10's on BBB and Samcro respectively on a weekly basis

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by charlie View Post
                            No idea Faugheen_Machine but I will find out and post up later.

                            I will be snaffling up 14's and 10's on BBB and Samcro respectively on a weekly basis
                            Welcome to the forum

                            Many/any bets placed so far?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                              Welcome to the forum

                              Many/any bets placed so far?
                              Cheers Kevloaf. Delighted to see 25 pages of Cheltenham related bets, it's never too early!

                              Other than BBB and Samcro, the only other bet I have placed is Arctic Fire @ 80’s for the Champion Hurdle.

                              I wouldn’t normally get stuck in this early but I assume he stays hurdling and will be campaigned for the Champion Hurdle. Yes, Buveur D’air looks a good thing, but 4.6 is way too short at this stage and IMO Arctic Fire would not need to improve on that 2nd to Faugheen to beat Buveur D’air. He is 8 going on 9 and there is no reason to believe he cannot recapture that form, especially when you look at how he won the county off top weight having not raced for 400 days. I can see him doing a Rooster Booster who won the County in 2002 and then Champion in 2003.

                              I think that 2nd to Faugheen was very impressive and a completely underrated performance. Faugheen was gifted an early lead and Arctic Fire closed him down to just over a length up the hill. If you watch the footage back Willie said post-race that Arctic Fire had the most potential to improve out of the first three home.

                              There are plenty of horses ahead of Arctic Fire in the market that are likely to race elsewhere, or never race again.

                              We see time and time again where a horse places in the CH one year, then goes on to win it (Binocular, Punjabi, Brave Inca, Hors La Loi III, all recent examples).

                              Comment

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