Scottish Grand National
Saturday 22nd april, is Scottish grand national day, Had a look through the card and have picked a couple
of horses out . First one is Warrantor w. greatrex trained , and currently 25-1 .
second one is Seldom inn sandy thompson trainer and currently 16- 1 .
I shall have another more in depth look at it later .
The stats that I use may be neutralised by the drying ground but I have a short-list of:
Henri Parry Morgan
with a preference for the lower weighted.
Good man BC.
Some strong trends for this race, winner of race worth £15k+, 7yo or older, horses recording their highest RPR in races of 28f or further and oppose Irish whose best staying chasers are aimed at the Fairyhouse equivalent, course winners or course debutants have strong record.
I've managed to get a mate to ruin a few of his accounts tonight by backing Firebird Flyer for me.
A year ago this one was winning a Midlands National off a 5lb higher mark, this has been his target all year and although you wouldn't get too excited by his form this season Evan Williams is known for messing his horses around so it could be the 8lb drop since Christmas is exactly what he was trying to achieve.
Stamina is key in a brutal race like this so unquestioned ability to stay is a must and this one is guaranteed to relish the 4m trip.
I get the feeling his 66/1 price is based more on form and doesn't consider previous exploits.
Like many of these he'd like some cut but Ayr know that and will water to maintain good to soft ground and there are some showers due before the race.
Arpege D'Alene also has to be of interest and there's one other at a big price I'm keen on but will not know his participation status until tomorrow.
Don't forget the rest of the card, it's a proper days racing with prize money just short of half a million quid which includes the Scottish Champion hurdle
Does anyone know if Another Hero is an intended runner?
I'm going to follow you in on FF Ista - i don't need much persuading at those prices and you put together a decent case. Hopefully I'll be thanking you come Saturday tea time.
Probably a poor decision to bet at this stage but just taken 12/1 London Prize in the Scot champion hurdle.
Won the Imperial Cup and up only 6lb for that, deliberately missed Cheltenham and Aintree (presumably with this in mind) and arrives here fresh, young unexposed horse and probably more unexposed than most having spent much of his two year career on the flat.
Not sure what benefit there is betting now but decs on Thursday may see a few fancied rivals missing and his price shorten, I will be pressing so hoping he doesn't shorten too much...
Like the FF points you've made Ista. The case at 66/1 is worth following. I see some firms have cottened on and gone 33s...
Probably have a few going 6 places so might go half stakes now and the other half closer and just hope the price stays!
qzy is part owner of Premier Bond isn't he..... are you there -
Plenty for Jacon to pick from... Peace and Co would be the best horse in the field if he had any sort of prep run. Missing Chelt can't have been 'the plan' though.
I've backed 3 so far, all each way:
Henri Parry Morgan 33/1 (cliff horse)
Another Hero 20/1 (was on my shortlist for Irish national)
Firebird Flyer 66/1 (shamelessly following Ista on this one)
P. Nicholls ew lucky 63
Clan des obeaux 11-4
Tommy silver 11-1
Aperge d alene 12-1
Touch kick 4-1
Cap St Vincent 9-2
Also interested the lucky last at Bangor , new trainer for dai Walters horses , Charlie Deutsch takes the ride 5-1.
Good luck every1
100/1 6 places with Paddy Power ... Firebird Flyer all in.
Originally Posted by Kevloaf
Added Southfield Royale ew at 11/1.