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  1. #1

    Epsom Derby 2017

    Couldn't find a thread on here so thought I would just get started.

    Been looking forward to the return of the Andre Fabre trained Akihiro who runs today in the Prix Noaille at Chantilly. Only 2 runs last season, defeating subsequent Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner National Defense. From Japanese super horse Deep Impact whose progeny have been threatening to win a big European prize for a while now. Also out of a mate who has an Arc winner down the line.

    Looking forward to a good comeback today and hopefully a trip to Epsom for breakfast with the stars and then onto the big race itself. Currently available at 25/1, I have taken some slightly bigger prices through the winter. It is not guaranteed to run at Epsom but we know Fabre likes to target the English Classics with some of his better ones. At 25/1 worth a few quid as if it does what is expected today it will be half that price.

    Also worth a dabble at 33/1 for the Arc 😉

    Good luck.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Not up on flat but always good to hear views of the more educated that myself, at 25/1 it's worth an interest.
    Cheer finch

  3. #3
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    Looking at the huge Derby field, its hard to see any better qualified than RIVET. The only horse likely to stay the distance, and surely has an interested owner....L Piggot!

  4. #4
    Senior Member Ron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by finch View Post
    Couldn't find a thread on here so thought I would just get started.

    Been looking forward to the return of the Andre Fabre trained Akihiro who runs today in the Prix Noaille at Chantilly. Only 2 runs last season, defeating subsequent Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner National Defense. From Japanese super horse Deep Impact whose progeny have been threatening to win a big European prize for a while now. Also out of a mate who has an Arc winner down the line.

    Looking forward to a good comeback today and hopefully a trip to Epsom for breakfast with the stars and then onto the big race itself. Currently available at 25/1, I have taken some slightly bigger prices through the winter. It is not guaranteed to run at Epsom but we know Fabre likes to target the English Classics with some of his better ones. At 25/1 worth a few quid as if it does what is expected today it will be half that price.

    Also worth a dabble at 33/1 for the Arc 

    Good luck.
    Btn hd by stablemate, with another stablemate 4th. Still 25/1 but only 1 bookie quoting odds

  5. #5
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Published 7 May

    ATTY PERSSE is almost certainly a lot better than the bare bones of his narrow Esher Cup success might suggest and worth backing at big odds for the Investec Derby ahead of his scheduled next run in the Dee Stakes at Chester this week.

    Roger Charlton's colt looked an above-average maiden winner on his only start last year and it was interesting the trainer elected to go back to Sandown and remain over a mile, rather than go for the ten-furlong handicap there on the same day.

    Pedigree wise the son of Frankel has reasonable prospects of staying a mile and a half (dam Dorcas Lane, a Pretty Polly winner, was placed in the Ribblesdale and Lancashire Oaks) and on both starts he's looked more stamina than speed.

    In some ways, although the trip nearly got Atty Persse beat, the Esher Cup could hardly have worked out better because he learned barrel-loads in a rough race, which is sure to stand him in good stead as he goes up in grade.

    James Doyle could have made better use of his inside draw going into the bend but as he explained afterwards he was minded to keep a hold of the colt's head as he wanted to teach him to come through horses and didn't want him over-racing on his first run back.

    Despite getting into three separate barging matches during the course of the race, and being short of room for most of the straight, Atty Perse showed great determination to go through a gap when one finally appeared and get up on the line.

    Raised just 4lb for that victory to a mark of 91, he would be some bet if going for another handicap but Charlton knows he is destined for much better things (currently holds three Group-race entries) and has opted for the Listed trial round the Roodeye for the next stage of his education.

    The extra two furlongs there should see him in a better light and physically he looks the sort to cope well with the tight turns (likewise the gradients at Epsom).

  6. #6
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    I know little about flat racing but is the article suggesting a 91 rated horse has a Derby chance ?
    I'd be staggered is this was the case.
    Where was this article taken from Kev ?

  7. #7
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I think he's suggesting he won't be rated 91 after he runs at Chester this week - and the fact they're not taking the opportunity to go in to a handicap with what would be assumed a very leinient handicap mark, suggests as much.

    Its from Gary Nutting, ATR website - http://www.attheraces.com/tips/atr-t...nte-post-focus

  8. #8
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    What's your average Derby winner rated, 120 ?
    And what does your average Derby get rated after 2 runs ?
    I don't know the answer to either so looking to be educated...

  9. #9
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Its around 123, a little higher I think on a 10 year average.

    Just had a look and you only need to go back to Golden Horn to find a similar rating...

    http://www.skysports.com/racing/form...26/golden-horn

    Golden Horn was given an OR of 90 after his first start, 111 on his second and won the Derby on 118. (Given 126 afterwards)...

    On a side note, very interesting to hear some experts saying they expect Frankel's to be better over a trip... this year might be a year too soon but certainly adds intreague for this season as we move into June!

    ***Workforce won his Derby off 108 before getting smashed up by Harbinger .... the 3 AOB horses had high ratings but that is too be expected... Golden Horn and Harzand too, so the last 5 years would not be a positive for Atty Persse - unbeaten son of Frankel though... 91 can't be his ceiling.
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 05-07-2017 at 09:58 PM.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Interesting stuff that Kev, thanks for sharing...

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