Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

Aintree 2017

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Well and truly wrong on the Cheltenham front it seems - this Tony Keenan piece skewers it

    Previews of all the big races in the UK racing calendar can be accessed from this page. In depth form, trends and betting analysis of the best races of the year

    Comment


    • #17
      I,ve been looking at d.mcains entries , normally has one ready for the meeting he sent out katachenko last year , his two entries that look interesting lastbutnotleast and testify in the doom bar hurdle, red hot race on paper but trainer is having a better season this time and good strike rate with jockey will Kennedy.

      Comment


      • #18
        Any news on who dickie j will ride in gn?

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by dazzler View Post
          Any news on who dickie j will ride in gn?
          Gas line boy ? Maybe Regal Encore or Pendra ?

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by robith View Post
            Well and truly wrong on the Cheltenham front it seems - this Tony Keenan piece skewers it

            https://www.geegeez.co.uk/previewing...ee-by-numbers/
            Good Article.

            Poor enough lines ups on Thursday. Missing stars this season.

            Comment


            • #21
              A few outside plays for tmw.
              Cloudy dream 3-1
              Fourth bridge 14-1
              Redemption song 14-1
              Ew patent

              Friday
              Chti balko 12-1
              Gold present 10-1
              Testify 14-1
              Polly's pursuit 9-1
              Ew lucky15

              Nibble on Brian Hughes top jockey 25-1.
              Good luck every1.

              Comment


              • #22
                Plenty of bets for me tomorrow.

                I really like Cloudy Dream in the first. I think time will show the Arkle to be a decent race and i don't think there should be as big a gap in the betting between TN and CD. CD's defeat to Buveur D'air when giving him plenty of weight doesn't make bad reading either.

                I'll Double Buveur D'air and DDS and also place them in a few trebles. I'm against Cue Card, Empire of Dirt, OTF and Pacha Du Polder and will be taking them on with Bristol De Mai in the Bowl and Distime, Black Thunder and Top Cat Henry in the Foxhunters.

                Double W's, Foxtail Hill and Yorkist are of interest in the Red Rum but I'll have to have a token bet on Witness In Court.... Just in case.

                I hope I'm back in the car by the time the Mares Bumper is off.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Lucky 63 for me .. 1. Top notch
                  2.defi du seuil
                  3. Empire of dirt
                  4. buveur d'air
                  5. pacha du polder
                  6.Foxtail hill

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    And a patent ... 1.Loch Ba -4.05
                    2.Martello park - 5.15
                    3. Parsnip pete - 4.40

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      My thoughts on tommorow:

                      13:45 - Manifesto Novice Chase - Cloudy Dream

                      Looks to be very much a case of what form line you think is the strongest from the Cheltenham festival - the Arkle (Cloudy Dream 6L behind Altior) and the JLT (Top Notch 1L behind Yorkhill). Both those races had supremely talented horses in first but it’s slightly hard to gauge which second place run was the better - Altior will always be much more likely to win by a bigger distance compared to Yorkhill who will tend to idle and just do enough so I don’t think you can take the lengths beaten by both literally. I think Yorkhill had plenty in hand over Top Notch (and would have run regardless) but it was a bad mistake at the second last costing a fair bit of momentum - it’s credit to the horse he managed to get back up and challenge again and without it, I think the front pair would have pulled further away than the 3L’s back in third Disko.

                      That beating of Disko to me is stronger than a 9 length beating of Ordinary World in the Arkle by Cloudy Dream and considering Charbel would have certainly have finished ahead of Cloudy Dream I think Top Notch comes into the race with the best credentials. Henderson will have a very good guage on how good Cloudy Dream is after B D'air beat him over fences earlier in the season. The distance should suit both and although must of Cloudy Dreams runs have been at 2 miles he has won twice around this distance over hurdles (including a win over Waiting Patiently) so should be no hinderence to him.

                      I can't see anything other than a match up between the pair, and although Top Notch is slightly preferred, i don't think there's that much between the pair so will likely just be a watching race but if I was to have a bet - i'd side with the 10/3 for Cloudy Dream rather than Top Notch who I think is a bit too short at just above Evens.

                      14:20 - Juvenile Hurdle - Defi Du Seuil DOUBLE (with Buveur D'Air)

                      Cannot see past the fav here. He'll have to run below form to be beaten here and although he's had a long season, he looks a very consistent sort and should give Barry Geraghty his first winner since his injury. The double with Buveur D'Air paid just under Evens and I think that's reasonable such is the lack of challengers in both races.

                      Divin Bere should reverse form with Flying Tiger at level weights but the form of the Fred Winter still looks a level below that Triumph form, especially when you consider Charli Parcs who was considered a much better horse than Divin Bere was well beaten in the Triumph. None of The Irish from the Triumph re oppose (2nd, 3rd and 5th) and the best from that race to try and challenge the fav is Landin who was well back in 8th. If I was to look for a horse to place, i'll be looking outside the festival and Forth Bridge at 16/1 seems decent. His 2nd to Coeur de Lion puts him within the mix of a lot of these, the track should suit and he's been held back for Aintree bypassing the festival.

                      14:50 - Betway Bowl Chase - Empire of Dirt

                      Take away his last run at Cheltenham and he'd be going into the race at least a couple of points shorter imo. He won the Troytown on his seasonal debut over 3 miles with Noble Endeavour back in 4th who would then go onto win the Paddy Power Chase and run a fine 3rd in the Ultima at the festival. His next run - a 3/4 length 2nd to Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup looks incredibly good now too. Elliott told all in the preview nights that EoD was running in the wrong race at the festival and should have instead been in the Gold Cup at the longer trip. He never looked right at Cheltenham in the Ryanair and it was clear from an early stage of the race he had no chance of winning. Nothing came out after the race and the fact he's back out again would suggest it was just an off day and there are no issues with the horse (i'm actually surprised he's running here and not the Punchestown Gold Cup). My only worry is that there are a fair few front runners in the race and on a track like Aintree, if the likes of Bristol de Mai and to a lesser extent Silviniaco Conti and Smad Place go out in front on a real quick gallop, as Un De Sceaux did at the festival - he may find things too quick again and get outpaced but i still think he's the one to side with.

                      Cue Card could very well follow up his win last year and his price reflects that however I think he's a horse you have to be slightly cautious on now and as much as he could blow this field away, it's also just as likely he'll put in a below par round. Being so short he's one to swerve. Bristol de Mai would be the one that would interest me most from the rest of the field. His Gold Cup 7th wasn't too bad and back at a track that should suit - if importantly he's allowed to bowl along in front he could be difficult to peg back and catch. He's at his best when allowed an uncontested lead as otherwise mistakes tend to creep in but with other front runners like Smad Place and Silv Conti in the field - those mistakes might creep in once again.

                      15:25 - Aintree Hurdle - Buveur D'Air DOUBLE (with Defi Du Seuil)

                      Very much the same comments apply here from Defi du Seuil. A lack of challengers means it's very hard to see the fav beat even though there has to be a slight doubt going up in trip despite everything suggesting he should cope and could even improve on it. I couldn't touch Identity Thief on his form this season and what looks a desperate attempt to salvage something from his season. The New One looks well held and Old Guard would need to rediscover his form of 2 seasons ago to even compete here. It's very likely MTOY's will be the one that follows the fav home but i'd be willing to have a look at Rashaan at 33/1. His last time out run behind Jezki and Tombstone was decent considering he was giving away 8lbs and although both those horses failed to deliver at the festival, if either were to turn up here they'd be much shorter than 33/1. He stayed on really well that day and the run suggested a step up to this trip could be what is needed for further improvement. More importantly too, that was on heavy ground which is far from ideal for the horse. On good ground he's finished 12611 compared to 6513598. Despite generally going around handicaps in the summer outside of that he's generally contested graded races. In November (again on good ground) he beat both Apples Jade and Petit Mouchoir although clearly fitness was a HUGE advantage that day but I don't think he has too much to find in a race like this, minus the fav.

                      16:05 - Foxhunters - Balnaslow

                      I'd LOVE to see On The Fringe reverse form and win this for a 3rd year in a row. I had thought his price might be slightly bigger with many thinking Pacha du Polder would be fav again but at a general 13/8 - he looks too short to get involved even though he's excelled at the track (would have loved to have seen him in the National). Balnaslow with the brilliant Derek O'Connor back onboard could run well. Has taken well to this sphere this year and massively outran his odds of 40/1 at the festival beaten 3 lengths back in 5th. He led throughout and although headed at the time, the mistake at the last didn't help matters and just on that form he hasn't got that much to find, alongside his second to Foxrock earlier in the season. It's likely he'll go out to try and make all and if he can get in another nice rhythm again he could be even harder to peg back on a track like Aintree as the shorter trip should help his run style too. 'Only' 10 years old and could improve on that festival race. On the Fringe struggled to make up ground in that race and although I do think he'll improve here, the worry is that might happen once again. Dineur at 16/1 could run well too having shown a very good liking at the course with form figures of 72251 including a second in this race last year.

                      16:40 - Red Rum Handicap Chase - Double W's and Astre De La Cour

                      Double W's was a strong fancy on here for the Novice Chase at the festival. He was running a super race and travelled very well throughout until 3 out where he then faded away eventaully beaten 21 lengths back in 9th. This step back down to 2miles should be a big plus. The yard and jockey were very confident of a big run at the festival and I think they'll have a strong chance here

                      Astre De La Cour has a very eye catching booking in Paul Townend. He's a previous festival winner from 2015 over hurdles he's only run 3 times over fences so should have plenty more to offer at a course that suits. His run in February - 1.25L behind Gardefort (receiving 4lbs) looks good after the winner finished second in the Grand Annual.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Keep an eye out for Rather Be in the first race on Friday. Received a word for him in the Pipe race when unseating at the 2nd after being hampered.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Petticoat Tails is expected to run a huge race, I know Greatrex was keen to get some headgear on her and has managed to convince connections so she is one to keep onside.

                          And the fact they send Western Ryder up there tells me they think he has a chance.
                          Not one of the owners will be anywhere near Aintree though so should he win it'll be a fairly desolate winners enclosure...

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                            And the fact they send Western Ryder up there tells me they think he has a chance.
                            Not one of the owners will be anywhere near Aintree though so should he win it'll be a fairly desolate winners enclosure...
                            Just seen he's running on Friday. Think the track will suit him?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              He showed a turn of foot at Ascot they didn't think he had so they have no worries about the flat track, it'll be run at a crack pace anyway so his stamina will come into play.
                              Greatrex believes the horse looks better now than he did going into Cheltenham, have to take his word for that but he is always bullish about every one of his horses, the way he speaks sometimes I half expect him to have 350 winners a year...

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                A bit wary of Buveur D'Air today. Has never been over this trip and Annie was only Champion Hurdle winner to double these races in last 10 and only 4/9 have succeeded since 1984. http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/r...e-Stats-2017-4

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X