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  1. #21
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Finally time I sat down and reflected on Cheltenham from a betting perspective, as I have promised to do for a little while now

    I will apologise in advance for anything that is not relevant, down-right boring or is shamelessly after-timing! Also I'll stick to 'points' - if anyone does want to know my stake per point, pm me.

    Feel free to comment, criticize and ask questions... I know there are lots of areas to discuss and improve on, and I hope it helps some people too!

    1. How did you get on?

    Lucky enough to have my biggest ever returns, which is great. However my ROI was the lowest it has been for a few years.

    2017 Cheltenham:

    Total stake: 1033 pts
    Total return: 1213 pts
    Total profit: 180 pts (ROI 17.36%)

    2016 - 147 pts profit (ROI 37.70%) - from 391 pts staked
    2015 - 84 pts profit (ROI 50.08%) - from 165 pts staked
    2014 - 41 pts profit (ROI 27.79%) - from 150 pts staked
    2013 - 8 pts profit (ROI 3.93%) - from 209 pts staked
    2012 - 20 pts profit
    2011 - 8 pts profit

    My ROI was lower because I backed multiple horses in every single race this year, which I haven't done before.... which leads me on to the next question...


    2. Will you all be continuing with antepost next year? AND Will your approach change for 2018?

    Yes I will! Despite my ROI being down, profit was up and that was because there were some races I 'sacrificed' potential winnings to get my stake back as a minimum. A great example is the first race...

    (Below taken from my post in the Tuesday thread)

    Supreme - 16 points non runners (A few like - Jenkins, Moon Racer, Senewalk and Lough Derg Spirit)
    1.5 pts EW Melon 20/1
    1 pt EW Ballyandy 25/1 & 2 pt win at 14/1
    0.5 pts EW Bunk Off Early 25/1 & 0.5 pts EW 20/1
    1.5 pts EW Cilaos Emery 14/1
    1.5 pts EW Movewiththetimes 14/1
    1 pt EW Crack Mome 20/1 and 1 pt EW 16/1
    1 pt EW Riven Light
    Now, this was one of the races that I was in a relatively poor spot (like most were!) especially for me because of the 16 pts in non-runners. I didn't have a hugely strong fancy, although was cheering on Melon (see below) so decided to try and ensure I came out at least level (without non runners). I added the night before the race:

    3 pts win River Wylde 10/1
    2 pts win High Bridge 16/1
    1 pt EW Beyond Conceit 25/1
    1 pt EW Elgin 25/1
    0.5 pt EW Pingshou 50/1
    0.4 pt EW Labaik 50/1
    0.3 pts EW Glaring 66/1
    0.25 pts EW Capital Force 100/1
    0.1 pts EW Magna Carter

    Total stake was then 30.1 pts.

    Labaik win and Melon place was 34.8 pts returned. A very small 'profit' for the live runners, which in hindsight I am pleased with and it is only because of the different approach that I have come out ahead. I never would have considered backing Labaik based on his form and habits. Anyone that did, then fair play and I know Codd gave him a chance, but from my own thoughts, he genuinely didn't even cross my mind.

    I was roaring Melon on, as I had a 125/1 double for 1 pt with Altior! I was obviously deflated with that result BUT I see no reason to change my approach based on how it did pan out. Of course, overall I was down for this race, by 13 pts BUT, this was one of the biggest 'shocks' of the week and one of my worst ante-post plays. Some races we're "all green" including the JLT, Gold Cup, RSA and Stayers hurdles.

    As jono mentioned in the OP, a lot of his book was tied up with 3 horses, and mine was similar. Altior, Douvan and Yorkhill. Douvan winning would have given me a minimum of 220 pts more. I'm not hugely concerned by that myself. I feel like if 'everyone' would have had a good festival, I would have also had an even better one. Day three obviously helped, which was a punter friendly day but if I didn't have this approach, the turnovers on Death Duty, Douvan and UNWIMH would have hurt, whereas for me, they didn't hurt, they just didn't allow me to win much larger amounts.

    I also think it is worth mentioning that My non runner total was 264 pts. Had Faugheen, Annie Power, Vautour, Thistlecrack, Black Hercules, Getabird, RAWNAQ, Don Poli, Coneygree, Cue Card, American Tom, Min (list goes on) actually turned up I could have also been in a spectacular position. Obviously I know the fact some of them didn't has aided my other bets (Buveur D'air at 16/1 etc) I can't help but feeling in a 'freak' season with SO MANY high profile absentee's, if history doesn't repeat itself, I would have been even more profitable, and held stronger positions in some of the markets than I already did.

    One thing I think I will give very serious thought too is laying, rather than arbing. Laying for a free bet. I am not sure how to calculate what outlay I'd have needed and how I'd have ended up... I haven't been in a financial position to "lay" for any great amounts this year, as a lot of money is going on the wedding, but that is in August this year, so will open up some possibilities hopefully for Chelt 18. I know a few people lay and I'll need your help... if anyone wants to offer it up

    3 How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?

    Staked - 300.7 pts
    Retuned - 380.8 pts
    Profit - 80.1 pts

    Some of the 'highlights' included:


    Double on Altior/Yorkhill for 176 pts (Yorkhill now the name of the Top Table at my wedding) - Placed Sept 2016!

    Yankee on Bellshill, Yorkhill, Un De Sceaux and Defi Du Seuil for 65 pts. Placed January 2017

    EW Trixie on Yorkhill, Bellshill, Nichols Canyon for 33 pts placed November 2016

    Double (PP countdown special 28th Feb 17) on Yorkhill/Un De Sceaux for 30 pts.

    95 pts in non runners we're from my 'accy's (A lot included Annie Power/Faugheen)

    These yankee/accys/doubles/trebles etc are invaluable to how I approached this year. Day-by-day as horses won/lost in changed my position in some of the markets. For example, (as mentioned on the Gold Cup thread) I didn't have Native River covered for profit if he won, and nothing back if it placed. I had an EW Lucky 15 on 2/1/17 on Petit Mouchoir, Fox Norton (HA), Valsuer Lido (Ryanair) and Native River.... after PM and FN had placed, It meant 10 pts back IF Native River placed in the Gold Cup. Didn't need to stake anything else on NR and obviously that came in.

    4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (antepost and on the day)

    BACKING HORSES NON-RUNNER NO BET BEFORE THEY RUN IN CERTAIN RACES.
    Without a doubt this is something that I hadn't done before this year and I think it is brilliant, and will be doing it over and over and over again. It does 'tie-up' funds, so it won't be for everyone however:

    I had 143 pts STAKED and RETURNED as NRNB - that is quite a chunk, I know. Some bets were on horses like UDS (CH), Uxizandre (CC), Altior (CC), Djakadam (Ryanair), VVM (WH) that I firmly believe would have been significantly shorter had they gone for these 'more speculative' targets. Obviously non of these materialised, but Sizing John at 33/1 did, as did Disko 33/1 in the JLT (to be fair I backed that seconds after the race) and Top Notch 20/1 JLT.

    Sizing John wouldn't have run IMO without running well in the Irish Gold Cup, and if he had, I certainly wouldn't have been waiting 86.5 pts for him. Despite not winning, Disko and Top Notch created such a fantastic angle for me in the JLT that no matter what the result, it was going to be my most profitable race of the week (after Altior had won).

    I will 100% be looking out for more and more of these angles in 2018 and think we should target some key races when the jump season starts again!


    ----------------------

    Agree with the Davy Russell point, will be something I try and catch early next year again. I had a few in multiples but The Storyteller was in most! Can't be anyone else with a better strike rate at the moment that I can think of? Found it quite hard to get a handle on his mounts though before the prices had 'collapsed'.

    On momentum - Robbie Power hasn't stopped has he! I will struggle to really benefit from this because I will usually have most things covered anyway... or my bets will be on at least.

    Top Weights - As was mooted on the forum, the profile of handicap winners is changing and top weight is no longer a reason to put a line through a horse.

    High OR in the 4 miler - Bit of a highlight, had agreed to meet jono after this race and we'd both convinced each other to have a little bet on this horse in the build up. Felt like Kings I actually hadn't realised the top 2 we're the top 2 rated again, I think jono had mentioned this early, will make note though, from memory that is becoming a very strong trend for the 4 miler?

    Supreme - I won't ever be able to not get involved with the hype. The fantastic offers that bookies do on this race are just too good to turn down too, and I'd expect Sky to go NRNB fairly early again?

    5. Your biggest mistakes/ The races/horses you got wrong


    This could be a big section haha.

    Fox Norton. Without a doubt one of the most memorable races of the entire year for me. Firstly, gutted about Douvan. That wasn't good to watch and a big disappointment - I just hope he comes back and smashes everything to pieces. That said, I considered Fox Norton to be the worst value of the entire festival at a single figure price. What made it worse as he nearly came and headed Special Tiara, is that I had backed Special Tiara ante-post back in about November at 25/1 (expected him to shorten through the year!) I don't dislike Fox Norton, and backed him for quite a bit on his handicap debut for Tizzard earlier in the year, and it was purely a price thing. I didn't back him at Aintree because I kind of had convinced myself he is rubbish and I don't like him... but in hindsight that is stupid, it was purely price related and he did better than I thought!

    Cause of Causes - Very wrong. Certainly thought this was the second worst priced horse of the festival. I had a free bet at 4/1 with brought be out dead level for the race. I couldn't see the relevance of his previous festival wins, and didn't think the 'extra schooling' was as big a deal as was being made out. (I thought that if it mattered that much, the fact Enda Bolger has a replica course, his horses would win every time, but they don't so it can't matter as much). Turns out he was the best horse in the race, thrives at this time of year and I still love the horse, was gutted he didn't land the national! I am sure he'll be back for the XC chase next year and the price now is too big still!

    Charli Parcs
    - Was fortunate to be in a good position with DDS but I Wanted to believe the hype. Anyone that asked me got told he was the best of the day I don't think I will be able to stop similar situations happening though. It pays to be cynical though doesn't it!

    Yanworth - Came down on him as my CH selection, got out paced and has since shown to be better over further. Couldn't see him out of the frame in the CH! Sorry to anyone who followed me in!

    Apples Jade - where to start with this one! Backed her for the CH, the Stayers hurdle and needed EITHER VVM or Limini to beat her for a tidy profit. What an absolute MESS I got myself in over this one!

    I don't think I messed any others up too much, but call me out if I did

    6. Other points

    I did do one other bit of 'interesting' analysis. If I hadn't placed a bet in 2017 AT ALL the following was true (because as of 31.12.16 I was in this position)

    Staked - 287.2 pts
    Return - 393 pts
    Profit - 105.8 pts (ROI 36.82%)

    I finished up on (as I opened up with)

    Total stake: 1033 pts
    Total return: 1213 pts
    Total profit: 180 pts (ROI 17.36%)

    So for 2017 placed bets alone:

    Staked - 745.8 pts
    Returned - 820 pts
    Profit - 74.2 pts (ROI 9.95%)

    I put a lot of that down to 'arbing' / locking in profit - whatever you want to call it. I unfortunately won't know what I would have backed if I hadn't decided to do that... food for thought though?

    I welcome any and all comments, even if I get called a 'mug punter' again

  2. #22
    I'll have to make a coffee and find a quiet hour to read your post Kev.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    I'll have to make a coffee and find a quiet hour to read your post Kev.
    Haha don't waste your time :P

  4. #24
    A great write up mate. I think you have a very solid method.

    The thing that caught my eye is how much you invest from the turn of the year onwards. I'm going to try a couple of new things next season. One is to use the nrnb concession much more next year. The other is to do much more each way betting.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Interesting reading Kev.
    You clearly spend plenty of time balancing the books, if the industry wasn't dying on its' arse I'd say you were an course bookie in the making, but something everyone can do from their armchair these days.
    Delighted you turned a profit but I expect you were never fully exposed on any race ? Covering all Supreme runners the night before was, in hindsight, a good strategy and something to consider for all all/other races next year ?

    You did well to show a profit in yankees/multiples, this was where I wasted fortunes and won't be doing that next year.
    FJ ante post win yankee and another ante post each way yankee will be it until the week of the festival, I had over 20 patents/yankees and not one of them yielded a profit, several had multiple non runners before NRNB was available.
    Will have more on fancied singles next year and avoid multiples.
    Oh and the regulation promise to self, once again, to play small stakes in handicaps....

  6. #26
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I will do every race when I get round to it, and every multiple! Just will take a long time. I actually have the data on excel, just not sure the best way to upload it here quickly! *Guess I could screen shot and upload* ....?

    What do you mean 'fully exposed'? There we're definitely some races I could have yeilding no return on... probably about half.

    The 'moral' dilema I am having with myself is exactly what you've mentioned though... it was a good strategy in the Supreme in hindsight, but could I cheer? Did I get the satisfaction and enjoyment from picking the winner? NO. What I did get was a smaller, less important satisfaction of 'beating the bookies' although as mentioned, due to non runners I actually didn't in that race.

    I still want my emotions and thoughts to be the key factors at Cheltenham, (and I would find it far too difficult, near impossible to use this strategy weekend-to-weekend) - in the CC, I had backed Douvan (in Multiples), God's Own without E/W and Special Tiara from a long way out. I had nothing else in the race but was perfectly happy before the race, and was delighted Fox Norton didn't win... I would have fancied Special Tiara 'without' as well, had I not already played in the race...

    The contrast in the Supreme and Champion Chase are my battle with myself... but I feel like I enjoyed the CC a lot more. One of the ones I had selected, held on against one I thought COULDN'T win, especially considering the banker was beaten after the second fence...

    I know some people think it is all about the money, others don't ... I guess only I know which I want to be most important

  7. #27
    As much as we all love to beat the bookies, I agree having all basis covered doesn't bring the same rush/enjoyment as when your opinion comes in

  8. #28
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Nope, completely agree, but that's the difference between being a punter and a trader....

  9. #29
    Senior Member mayo's Avatar
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    Less than 11 months to go.

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