Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[ComplyOrDie]

Speaking of which - just placed 3pts on the following:

Altior, Yorkhill, UNWIMH, Mightbite, Footpad and Lets Dance all to place (3 places) @ 25/1.

Lets hope they all make it there safe and sound... And place

The only worry with that bet for me would be that Might Bite & Yorkhill could meet in the Gold Cup and that means you'd need 2 of the 3 places available to be filled by them 2, hard enough to get one place, well it was for me last year

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Hey all, another newbie here. I've been following the forum for a while now and just wanted to say a big thank you for all the great info on here. Managed to get a few nice prices as a result on the likes of Samcro, Annamix, and Apples Shakira and even followed in on the mighty Calet Mad. Of course they all have to make it(half the battle), which begs a question I haven't seen discussed in the last few months. Does anybody have an opinion on what percentage of an AP price is related to any horse getting to the Festival fit and healthy? And I assume this percentage would reduce the closer you get to the festival? Anyway I'd be interested in any thoughts.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Welcome RC

I have no stats to back this up but I'd imagine you'd be somewhere in the region of 1/3 or 1/4 to make the festival in good health from this stage of the season. By my maths, that's around a 25% of missing the festival.

Some of the other lads on here might have a better feel for the actual numbers. My thoughts are pure guess work.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I should add, other factors also have to be taken into account, like alternative targets etc.

[BigChaang]

Hey all, another newbie here. I've been following the forum for a while now and just wanted to say a big thank you for all the great info on here. Managed to get a few nice prices as a result on the likes of Samcro, Annamix, and Apples Shakira and even followed in on the mighty Calet Mad. Of course they all have to make it(half the battle), which begs a question I haven't seen discussed in the last few months. Does anybody have an opinion on what percentage of an AP price is related to any horse getting to the Festival fit and healthy? And I assume this percentage would reduce the closer you get to the festival? Anyway I'd be interested in any thoughts.

Way too Technical for me R,C ,. but Welcome to the the Best Forum around

[Scooby91]

Welcome RC

I have no stats to back this up but I'd imagine you'd be somewhere in the region of 1/3 or 1/4 to make the festival in good health from this stage of the season. By my maths, that's around a 25% of missing the festival.

Some of the other lads on here might have a better feel for the actual numbers. My thoughts are pure guess work.

Its a difficult one, I suppose each horse is treated individually ie faugheen where that was hugely factored into his price and possibly still is to a degree.
Where novices like samcro and Annamix it would be hardly factored in to there prices at all.

[Kevloaf]

Hey all, another newbie here. I've been following the forum for a while now and just wanted to say a big thank you for all the great info on here. Managed to get a few nice prices as a result on the likes of Samcro, Annamix, and Apples Shakira and even followed in on the mighty Calet Mad. Of course they all have to make it(half the battle), which begs a question I haven't seen discussed in the last few months. Does anybody have an opinion on what percentage of an AP price is related to any horse getting to the Festival fit and healthy? And I assume this percentage would reduce the closer you get to the festival? Anyway I'd be interested in any thoughts.

Welcome RC

It is a very good point to raise, and my honest opinion is that I probably DON'T factor it in. If a horse is 'fragile' or 'returning from injury' or 'had problems' or 'missed races/festival' before, I definitely consider that when I look at the price of a horse. For example, I have £0 staked on Faugheen that isn't a free bet or was put on NRNB when that brief offer was up, and I wouldn't, unless he was a ridiculous price (like say, 12/1 - which he just wouldn't be at any stage).

A horse like Cause of Causes, who has turned up now for 5 festivals, IS a horse I would put my £'s on at this stage... the way I'd look at a horse like CoC being a NR (touched wood) is that if he doesn't run, it isn't anything I could have predicted.

I have seen much more experienced punters than me on other parts of the internet put up cases for what price a horse should be to 'turn up' and I have to admit I think there is enough information that we have and base our opinions on without having to worry about such (what to me) is a huge unknown.

I had loads of Vautour in the any race market early in the season when he was fatally injured in the field... I had backed SS at 5/1 before he got retired. In hindsight, the first bet I am comfortable with, the 2nd is one of the worst bets I've placed.... and I definitely should have considered SS's past, compared to Vautours - despite both in essence, being worth the same, minus figure, at the end of the festival.

So in answer to you direct questions, I try now to consider each horse individually on its liklihood of being a bigger price now than SP, (factoring in targets/injuries/etc etc) and would struggle to have an exact percentage or rule for it .... however, very welcome to be talked around if anybody can explain it well?

[Istabraq]

You should consider the price of horses who are quoted for the the race who simply won't turn up.
Take the Mares market, year after year 3 of the 4 or 4 of the 5 shorties quoted won't go, and if you know they won't line up the price of the horse/horses you want to back will shorten.
Conversely, consider where else your horse(s) are quoted, being able to back Quevega year on year at 5/4 because media pressure said she had to tackle a champion hurdle at some point was great news for us punters, she was only ever going to run, and win, the Mares so the 5/2 quotes for the champion hurdle was laughable.
No bookie can quote 1/2 the same horse for every race before the NRNB concession, so one of the 'back' prices will always be bigger than it should be...

[Hurricane fly]

Been given a free £5 bet so I’ve put a tiny lucky 15 on Rich Ricci reigning supreme again

Annamix - 10/1
Salsaretta - 10/1
Faugheen - 7/4
Douvan - 11/4

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Thanks everyone for the warm welcome and responses. I guess my feeling was most in line with FM that as any horse (no matter their ability) is sustepible to injury then a portion of the AP price must reflect that. I also think 25% seems a realistic % at the start of the seaon although it would be great to get hold of some real data on this - tried but failed to think of a simple way of collecting it, so if anyone has some ideas let me know. Anyway, following this logic if, for example you saw 10/1 on Samcro at the start of the season (any race, to remove switching as a factor) his odds of winning purely based on potential ability would be around 15/2 (25% reduction). I know most punters imagine that at least part of the AP price is related to this but suspect we all quantify it differently.

I also think this % in theory goes down the nearer you get to the Festival. I would guess around 10% chance of missing the festival through injury at end of January (before NRNB makes this a moot point). I think it's a good point to raise Kev that certain horses appear to be less susceptible to injury (bit like certain football players) which should be factored in. So based on CoCs (heavily invested of course) record of not missing a Festival you might calculate the % at say 20% instead of 25% at the start of the season. Also agree Scooby that some horses clearly have a much higher % factored in to their AP price as you say Faugheen being a perfect example when 10/1 a couple of months back. That said I was very surprised Scooby that you think the risk of missing the Festival is hardly factored in at all for novices. If that is the case does that mean you think you are actually getting less value on novices? So for example Annamix at 20/1 at the start of the seaon is really a 26/1 chance (increase by 25%) if risk of missing the Festival due to injury was to be factored in.

Agree with others that this is of course just one factor to consider when taking an AP price but certainly a very important one for me.

[archie]

If you want a rough figure you could look at a bookies price before and after NRNB comes in.

[Scooby91]

Thanks everyone for the warm welcome and responses. I guess my feeling was most in line with FM that as any horse (no matter their ability) is sustepible to injury then a portion of the AP price must reflect that. I also think 25% seems a realistic % at the start of the seaon although it would be great to get hold of some real data on this - tried but failed to think of a simple way of collecting it, so if anyone has some ideas let me know. Anyway, following this logic if, for example you saw 10/1 on Samcro at the start of the season (any race, to remove switching as a factor) his odds of winning purely based on potential ability would be around 15/2 (25% reduction). I know most punters imagine that at least part of the AP price is related to this but suspect we all quantify it differently.

I also think this % in theory goes down the nearer you get to the Festival. I would guess around 10% chance of missing the festival through injury at end of January (before NRNB makes this a moot point). I think it's a good point to raise Kev that certain horses appear to be less susceptible to injury (bit like certain football players) which should be factored in. So based on CoCs (heavily invested of course) record of not missing a Festival you might calculate the % at say 20% instead of 25% at the start of the season. Also agree Scooby that some horses clearly have a much higher % factored in to their AP price as you say Faugheen being a perfect example when 10/1 a couple of months back. That said I was very surprised Scooby that you think the risk of missing the Festival is hardly factored in at all for novices. If that is the case does that mean you think you are actually getting less value on novices? So for example Annamix at 20/1 at the start of the seaon is really a 26/1 chance (increase by 25%) if risk of missing the Festival due to injury was to be factored in.

Agree with others that this is of course just one factor to consider when taking an AP price but certainly a very important one for me.

Look at petit mouchoir. He's gone out by around 2pts form 10s to 12s as a result of a setback and less possibility of making it there.
In regards to Annamix I'm not too sure on that example, as his price hasn't contracted because he hasn't yet been injured, his price has contracted because of weight of money. And you deffinately get less value on novice hurdlers (with well known connections) that have already ran. Imo because you have no idea what the opposition will be . I will happily admit I wouldn't have heard of labaik , i knew a little of finians Oscar and nothing of neon wolf this time last year

[Kevloaf]

The Ricci stable tour for his young horses is on the BertBright blog.... nothing really that interesting in my opinion.... I'd say he sounds keenest on Salsaretta

Can be found on their website and you have to subscrinbe and they email a PDF to you...

[Montjeu]

Done two of Sky Bet's RequestABet specials tonight, usually they don't appeal to me but I liked these two.

Samcro, Altior, Apple's Shakira and Faugheen all to win any race 85/1

Red Jack and Samcro to win any race and Monalee to win the RSA 250/1

[Montjeu]

Apologies for the double post but also done 'Samcro to be unbeaten up until & win any race at the Cheltenham festival' 6/1. Thought that was a great price considering he is 5/2 to win any race with the same firm, and will probably start odds on for every start he has between now and then.