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The answer is probably somewhere in between. For some more well-known (hype) horses, it is what I would call 'calculated' guess-work at how good they might be. (Like Samcro taking to hurdles on the track)
Our problem, trying to get perceived value ante post is that any easily accessible information, (like a trainer/owner saying they're really excited about one) gets factored in to the price... it is just a matter of how well the bookies have done it compared to what we think we know/or believe. (For Samcro, he'd raced P2P, and had racecourse experience)... which I consider much more solid than say, Annamix. However, Annamix has raced in France and the trainer has proven he is successful... so again, whatever the price is/was before they run, is a matter of what you consider value and how much you'll risk.
On the other hand, just because I had a lot of pts on CoC at 9/1, doesn't mean at 7/1 I still don't think he is good value - I don't know exactly how many pts I want on, but each week, if I have a win and I look for a bet, I might see that 7/1 and still think its a great bet, regardless of whats gone before. MAybe if I used BvD as an example, (for which I am on at 4/1) and Faugheen doesn't make the Morgiana, and BvD is then cut to 3/1 ... I would go in again, because I still consider that a great bet.
As long as we all stay friends...
It's all healthy sharing of opinions. I'd hope no one takes anything I say personally as I certainly don't.
If he jumps and stands up I agree with you. But he is a novice and he would not be the first to take a tumble or jump poorly, regardless of a PtP or schooling hurdles.
Jenkins was the talk of the town last season and look how he panned out and Henderson is one of the best trainers of hurdlers.
I did have a decent size bet on Jenkins supreme before his hurdling debut and moon race for the supreme. . but my crystal ball was in for a service
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The answer is probably somewhere in between. For some more well-known (hype) horses, it is what I would call 'calculated' guess-work at how good they might be. (Like Samcro taking to hurdles on the track)
Our problem, trying to get perceived value ante post is that any easily accessible information, (like a trainer/owner saying they're really excited about one) gets factored in to the price... it is just a matter of how well the bookies have done it compared to what we think we know/or believe. (For Samcro, he'd raced P2P, and had racecourse experience)... which I consider much more solid than say, Annamix. However, Annamix has raced in France and the trainer has proven he is successful... so again, whatever the price is/was before they run, is a matter of what you consider value and how much you'll risk.
On the other hand, just because I had a lot of pts on CoC at 9/1, doesn't mean at 7/1 I still don't think he is good value - I don't know exactly how many pts I want on, but each week, if I have a win and I look for a bet, I might see that 7/1 and still think its a great bet, regardless of whats gone before. MAybe if I used BvD as an example, (for which I am on at 4/1) and Faugheen doesn't make the Morgiana, and BvD is then cut to 3/1 ... I would go in again, because I still consider that a great bet.
In all seriousness. Dostal phil runs Friday at chelt, I don't think dame de compagne Will run. Slate house has 3 entries so may go to wincanton. For example. IF ONLY dostal phil runs in that race of the 3. He's 33s now for the supreme, he will be odds on, aslong as he can jump, he will win the race and be cut to half the price.
I personally would have learned nothing at all about dostal phil but he will be already half the price for doing nothing in relation of his chances of winning the supreme
If that make sense lol.
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Agreed. Everybody have different ways and approaches of looking at things. I personally don't like taking shorter odds on something that iv already backed at bigger and have learned nothing of any value since. Ie bolting up in a poor field. However if 3s was available afer faugheen out, I'd go in again on buveur dair as every body knows the true value of his form, So there are exceptions to every rule. And good points
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Ok let's throw some monetary values at this. The scenario is as follows
You've allocated £200 to back Dostal Phil with for the Supreme. Do you...
a) Put all £200 on him at 33/1 without knowing he can jump but will ultimately win an easy race if he does
or
b) Put £100 on him at 33/1 before the race and then another £100 at 16/1 after should he be successful. However, you have potentially saved yourself the second £100 should he bunny hop every Hurdle and look completely unnatural over hurdles.
I don't have set amount, even if I say I do, normally just goes out the window. For example I said I wasn't going to have anymore on SAMCRO. Got a football bet up at weekend and loaded more on the horse. I just like to do ante-post to try and get some nice priced winners come March.
I don't have set amount, even if I say I do, normally just goes out the window. For example I said I wasn't going to have anymore on SAMCRO. Got a football bet up at weekend and loaded more on the horse. I just like to do ante-post to try and get some nice priced winners come March.
At my first Cheltenham I did.... it was 1 pt per race.... that quickly became 2 pts per race but there was no ante-post for me back then.
Little milestone - I've now got exactly 300 pts staked
If I could pick 2 horses to win now, they'd be Samcro and Cause of Causes.... that'd see a return of 324 pts If only it was that simple.
Not for me kev. Ie samcro > I'm a sucker for pp cutting to half the price and in particular when pushing out the same horse in other races.
I would have a larger stake on a buveur dair than I would an Annamix or a samcro.
One thing I have done this year, iv upped my stakes on novice chasers before they have ran and trusted there ability to jump. As I personally find all the form/ info is already there and for the pool size of horses compared to novice hurdles.
A western warhorse is more unlikely than a labaik.
I would usually back on returns rather than points, although I'm gradually betting a little bigger and trusting my own judgment on larger prices
Last edited by Scooby91; 25 October 2017, 07:04 AM.
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