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Placed my first life changer for the festival tonight - EW Lucky 31 @ 510509/1 with WH
Annamix 14/1 (Supreme)
Samcro 16/1 (Neptune)
Finian's Oscar 10/1 (JLT)
Fayonagh 6/1 (Mares Novice)
Apple's Shakira 25/1 (Triumph)
They're all going off fav
Apple's Shakira aside (know nothing about personally), and assuming Annamix is as good as they say he is, that looks a fair bet Kev. I certainly like the other 3, very much, even them 3 returns well, so good luck with that
Saw a feature on the sporting life website today , ,, " Our best ante-post yankees ." theyr'e looking for people to send in
their suggestions and it says skybet will price boost the best ones ??.
Hi all, long time watcher here and have found everyone's opinions invaluable in forming increasing ante post cheltenham books over the years. Just thought I'd join to share my opinions on all the races ahead of next year's festival, think I've now formed the bulk of my ante post book and have some strong fancies.
Two bets stand out for me:
FINIANS OSCAR - to win any race - 6/1 (on at 10s 8s and 6s) - have been topping up on this weekly now for a couple of months. Just think of all last seasons hurdlers going chasing, this one will prove a notch above. I think the Arkle is where he may well end up, and so have some on for that race also. Will definitely be between the Arkle and JLT, just think if you consider the profile of the horses who have won the Gold Cup in the past then the Arkle is the logical race. Why not go for the more prestigious, valuable race, especially in his first year as a chaser. The stable won't be in any rush with a horse they think could be the best they've ever had, so why rush to step him up in trip when a true run two miles should suit him perfectly.
SAMCRO - Neptune - 14/1 (on at 20s and 16s) - refreshing that you can trust most of what Elliott says with regards target. Every quote from him indicates the Neptune will be the target for Samcro this year, and looking at horses likely to take in the Supreme, Neptune and Albert Bartlett I can see Samcro being a nice favourite for this race on the day.
I'll end up with 3/4 horses covered in all the championship races (always seen a profit doing this in the past, though usually quite a small one) and in a lot of them I think you'd have to give 3/4 a decent chance at the moment. When you form that opinion on a market then for me it's just about taking the plunge on each horse when the price is right.
For example I'm very confident that the Champion Hurdle winner will come from Buveur, Faugheen, Yorkhill, Defi and am on all of those now at prices which will ensure varying degrees of profit.
My other strong thoughts are that Yorkhill won't win the Gold Cup if going for that, I like the Our Duke/Disko formlines, think they have the perfect profile for it and will be trained accordingly. Also don't think Death Duty will be winning the RSA. That was a shabby performance yesterday and even though he clearly has an engine and will improve plenty, you couldn't back him when taking into account previous festival form, the fact he was sketchy over hurdles and unseated, and will have been beaten by some of the main protagonists before. I really like Topofthegame for this one (point form over 3 miles really strong), but again it's a market where you'd have to have 3/4 covered to be confident come the off.
The markets I really like at this stage are for the Bumper and Albert Bartlett. When you see a few horses in each all priced up at 33/1 then with a bit of research that the race will be the horses likely target (as it seems with most at the head of both these markets) and I think you're currently getting real value and it's worth an investment. Those horses than form the basis of my bets for that race, and you can chip away at anything else that impresses you along the way. Am sure this is how most of you bet on here, look forward to sharing opinions over the coming months
Welcome Robante!
A great summary and some solid opinions
I'm compiling a Day 1 EW Lucky 15 to get the Fez off to a flyer - I just need some encouragement before I press the button!
I am fully aware that targets may end up being wrong, but you have to go with your gut... right?
Supreme - Annamix
Arkle - Fiinians Oscar
Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'air
Mares - torn between Apples Jade and Let's Dance
Elliott has all but confirmed that Apples Jade will be aimed at retaining her crown, but Let's Dance offers better value, has course form and is probably better at 2.5 than 2 miles...
Leaning towards Let's Dance... has anyone seen anything about intended targets?
Can't see her being aimed at Champion or Stayers Hurdle...
Welcome along Robante, as Leman said a nice summary of your current thoughts
Leman, I have seen nothing about Let's Dance, however Mullins mentioned Limini coming back looking bigger and stronger than ever, so wonder if she'll be connections main runner for this race, I think Let's Dance will have her time, whether that is this festival or not remains to be seen, but personally I am backing both AJ & Limini currently, go with your own instincts though, they are usually reliable
I, somehow, have once again, got into the hype of the Ricci runner and Annamix turns up in a few of my AP bets already, was looking through some earlier and never realised how many I put him in, so I am hoping he is all the rage still come March, unlike Senewalk this year
Let's Dance, Augusta Kate, Vroum Vroum Mag, Limini. I would say Limini definitely be in for the Mares Hurdle, not sure where you then slot Let's Dance, Vroum Vroum Mag and Augusta Kate in. Probably see at least two of the four in the Mares Hurdle, one in the Stayers, but will have to wait til closer to the time for me, not getting involved in the guessing game with those 4 and will see how they've come on this season
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