Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Jonnymac05]

Don't be replacing him on my say so Jonny - stick to your guns!

no i already did the 1st bet but might not be a bad idea to have another without BP as well as cover so to speak

[pk7t5]

Newbie to this site... Been given a Good word for Gordon Elliotts De Plotting Shed for the closing race on day 1 (Close Brothers Hcap) Best priced 10/1 @betfairsportsbook...Last 2 runs over a trip much shorter than ideal..
Any thoughts on horse/race welcome

[Kevloaf]

Hi all. New to the forum. Should have introduced myself earlier .looking forward to discussing horses with you all. Someone please tell me dounikos will run in the Rsa and not the 4 miler . Think he has a massive chance over 3miles . Looked like he got squeezed lto and would have finished much closer if not won imo.

Welcome to the forum.

I hope Dounikos goes RSA too but doesn't look very likely anymore!

Lisa O'Neill did say she'd LIKE that to be her ride, but before that had said she has NOTHING booked so far .... so if she IS on it, she doesn't "know" yet.

Newbie to this site... Been given a Good word for Gordon Elliotts De Plotting Shed for the closing race on day 1 (Close Brothers Hcap) Best priced 10/1 @betfairsportsbook...Last 2 runs over a trip much shorter than ideal..
Any thoughts on horse/race welcome

Welcome. Plenty of chat about that race in here my friend... http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...se-2018/page15

[Kevloaf]

no i already did the 1st bet but might not be a bad idea to have another without BP as well as cover so to speak

IF you're keen on MElon not being out of the 3, would you not consider the "without" market for him (and perhaps Brain Power too)?

I'm never a fan of 'each way' value if I don't think the horse can win on merit. I like the "without" markets although, I couldn't tell you if I do well in them as they're quite rare to use in multiples.

[Ron]

My banker for the meeting was Apples Jade at 11/10 (taken in our Punter of the Year comp on 5th Jan). I think that price has gone now. I would be more than happy to lay Samcro if the ground is better than soft. Probably won't win anyway. Prefer Next Destination in that race but I like Cracking Smart ew at 33/1. Seems to be getting stronger, based on his latest run behind Next Destination and come Cheltenham may have improved enough to get past him up the hill

[Sirbetalot]

My banker for the meeting was Apples Jade at 11/10 (taken in our Punter of the Year comp on 5th Jan). I think that price has gone now. I would be more than happy to lay Samcro if the ground is better than soft. Probably won't win anyway. Prefer Next Destination in that race but I like Cracking Smart ew at 33/1. Seems to be getting stronger, based on his latest run behind Next Destination and come Cheltenham may have improved enough to get past him up the hill

Personally I think Samcro will have won this race before Next Destination and Cracking Smart even started to race each other up the hill, but that won't happen as CS will be in the AB...

[Middle_Of_March]

My banker for the meeting was Apples Jade at 11/10 (taken in our Punter of the Year comp on 5th Jan). I think that price has gone now. I would be more than happy to lay Samcro if the ground is better than soft. Probably won't win anyway. Prefer Next Destination in that race but I like Cracking Smart ew at 33/1. Seems to be getting stronger, based on his latest run behind Next Destination and come Cheltenham may have improved enough to get past him up the hill

‘Probably won’t win anyway’. On what formline is he ‘probable’ to not win. Everything he’s done has been a demolition job.

Cracking Smart wins the Albert Bartlett so save your cash for that race instead. No chance he takes on Samcro in the Ballymore.

[Jonnymac05]

IF you're keen on MElon not being out of the 3, would you not consider the "without" market for him (and perhaps Brain Power too)?

I'm never a fan of 'each way' value if I don't think the horse can win on merit. I like the "without" markets although, I couldn't tell you if I do well in them as they're quite rare to use in multiples.

I have to admit i never even thought of the without markets. fantastic idea thank you. i will have a look and see if i can find something to put together.

[Kevloaf]

Does anybody know how to find out what prices horses were historically....

FOr example, I want to know what price Coo Star Sivola was 48 hours BEFORE his run last year. I can obviously see the SP.... but I want to know (if possible) and analyse what money came late and what prices were available (with a view to finding prices that WILL shorten).

Long shot..as I have never heard of this data being available... other than me starting to collate it myself with a view to next year.

[Sirbetalot]

Can I ask a stupid question, I have been backing horses at cheltenham for many many many years but mostly if not all he graded races, when is it worth backing the handicap races? I fancy a few of them this year but last year I back a number of them and most did not turn up or ran in another race lucky NRNB will hill insurance..

I am holding back on a lucky 63 mainly because I have no clue what race they will be in this year but the longer I wait the lower the price I will get..

Is it a case of waiting till the Decs for the handicaps and miss a good price or take a punt??

[Istabraq]

I have an horrific record in the handicaps SB but, and take this at face value, if you are fortunate to have a selection of accounts, then wait until the day when the offer frenzy begins.
Races like the bumper and cross country are, by rule, 1,2,3, places and 1/5 place terms, but with fields of 20ish most will go 4 places and maybe some even 5 and 1/4 place terms.

You'll always get your plots and plunges but there will be a host of horses that are a bigger price on the morning of their race than they are a few days before...

[Sirbetalot]

I have an horrific record in the handicaps SB but, and take this at face value, if you are fortunate to have a selection of accounts, then wait until the day when the offer frenzy begins.
Races like the bumper and cross country are, by rule, 1,2,3, places and 1/5 place terms, but with fields of 20ish most will go 4 places and maybe some even 5 and 1/4 place terms.

You'll always get your plots and plunges but there will be a host of horses that are a bigger price on the morning of their race than they are a few days before...

Thanks that is helpful, I will wait until the Tuesday, I can not see any of mine being a plot horse as most are around 10s to 16s already and I would not take much shorter odds in a 20 field handicap anyway..

[Kevloaf]

Thanks that is helpful, I will wait until the Tuesday, I can not see any of mine being a plot horse as most are around 10s to 16s already and I would not take much shorter odds in a 20 field handicap anyway..

Personally try and leave handicaps as late as I can..... there will be some OBVIOUS short prices on the day that you've MISSED but they don't all win... and handicaps are hard enough anyway, without the element of getting them there.

Bookies tke NO chances when NRNB in handicaps.... IMO you're best waiting most of the time.

However, you'll see I back ante post in handicaps still...

[Quevega]

Can I ask a stupid question, I have been backing horses at cheltenham for many many many years but mostly if not all he graded races, when is it worth backing the handicap races? I fancy a few of them this year but last year I back a number of them and most did not turn up or ran in another race lucky NRNB will hill insurance..

I am holding back on a lucky 63 mainly because I have no clue what race they will be in this year but the longer I wait the lower the price I will get..

Is it a case of waiting till the Decs for the handicaps and miss a good price or take a punt??

I've used NRNB in the last few years with the handicaps, even before entries and weights are out, this year was even earlier.
The pertemps, fred winter and Novice handicp chase are particularly good for this as it is easier to narrow down the likely shorter prices.
I have Glenloe at 25 and Louis vac pouch at 20 and these weren't hard to spot from December of last year
I had Percy at 33's last year and barney dwan 50s each way and Mall Dini at 40's yr before.
I generally will play 3 or 4 in each handicap so will leave one or two options till nearer the day (morning of the race)
The close brothers I have rather be 16 divine spear 20 and De Plotting Shed 14.
fred winter - Act of valour 22 nube negra 20 and king of may 33.
Got Nutted last year having had max bet on divin bear, also had max bet on storyteller at 14s for martin pipe and was gutted when it was pulled out injurd.
Last year I had 2 balloted out due to handicapper in close brothers but got 20s on Tully East.
I generally look for cheltenham types/ as in owner (tully east) - trainer - horse having run at festival before etc.
This year being able to cash bets out on b365 has been even better than ever.
Not had the best luck with other handicaps although the kim muir is all about the jockeys.

I spend a hell of a lot of time going through each entry and looking for likely types. (good four hours a day from mid Jan onwards)
It's a hobby.

[ricksen1]

Hi guys, my first post on here. I've been following this forum for the last two years, basically because its the only one I've found where people aren't embedded half way up their own a##e. Good luck to you all. I've been at the festival the last three years, but unfortunately I own my own business and I'm shackled to that this year. Betting wise I've kept fairly quiet this year. But that'll no doubt change over the next week . May the racing gods be kind to you all.