Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Faugheen_Machine]

Each way isn't for me at this stage Kev, mainly because I don't want to lose twice as much of he doesn't show up.

I can't find a 'win any race' market on oddschecker but do know that some bookies are offering it. Has anyone seen double figure odds on Finians Oscar in these markets?

[Istabraq]

Hobbs confirms Defi Du Seuil stays over timber which is hardly surprising for a 4yo, most in here will know my views on Triumph horses tackling the Champion Hurdle and although I have always rated DDS a star in the making when they turn the gas on I'd expect a speedier type to quicken better.
Anyone tempted by the 8/1 ?
This is his only realistic festival target so already has an advantage over half those at the top of the betting, so if you're that way inclined he has the look of a back to lay to me....

[Faugheen_Machine]

He looked fantastic in the triumph but history has shown that plenty of impressive triumph horses have failed to make their mark in the Champion Hurdle.

DDS would have to be exceptional to win the Champion. I can see the angle of a back to lay because you'd imagine Buveur D'air and DDS will be kept separate until Cheltenham in March and if he wins his trials nicely he'll be a fair bit shorter than 8/1 on the day.

Back to lay isn't really my thing though.

[Kevloaf]

I don't think I'd take 8/1 on the day for DDS. The amount of runs he has had already is making me think he isn't as open to improvement add some other triumph winners and you really do have to go back to find any that are good enough to be involved in a champion hurdle. I was mad keen on Our Connor but even that might have been proven misguided.

On the topic of misguided, i'd sooner back Charli Parcs at 33/1 as the target is surely the same, better trainer for the race and surely open to much more improvement. *might go and find the cliff horse thread* ... But anyone agree?

[KingSprinterSacre]

Ainsie Va La Vie 20/1 Mares novice hurdle

I've had a very small nibble on her ew at 20s. The fact she is clearly fragile stopped me having a bit more. Hugely impressive debut on Sunday and I read now the plan is a winners bumper then to go hurdling so I would imagine this race would be the target. Shes a half sister to grade 1 winning hurdler Sous Les Cieux.
This could be the supreme racing clubs mare for the race, but no doubt Ricci will have something decent also.
At 20s felt she was worth a little tickle as she wont be that if she lines up on the day.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think it was Archie who has shares in some of the supreme racing club horses - maybe he is in the know with this one.

[archie]

The fact that Supreme and Willie persevered with Ainsi Va La Vie for over 3 years was a good indication that she had ability and that, individually, her injuries weren't that serious. Horses are moved on if they don't meet the requirements. It's why I tend to go for well bred mares because they have a greater residual value as potential broodmares.
As for Cheltenham, it's very early days even at 20/1.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thanks Archie. Have you been buying into any other horses recently?

[archie]

Irons in the fire, FM.

[jono]

i'd sooner back Charli Parcs at 33/1 as the target is surely the same, better trainer for the race and surely open to much more improvement. *might go and find the cliff horse thread* ... But anyone agree?

I see you're 33/1 Charli Parcs and raise you Jenkins at 100/1 for misguided Henderson horses to back in the CH?
Watching his race back at Ffos Las in April - it was a lot more workmanlike than you'd want but bar one error his jumping looked a lot better than previous. Henderson before the race also said:

JENKINS will go to Ffos Las and while we were going to draw stumps with him, we decided not to as over the past three weeks he has really started to make me happy. I think he is definitely coming back to himself and if the ground is safe, he will go. He schooled this morning and I don’t mind admitting it was the first time I have seen him properly jump, even before he ran at Newbury; he actually resembled a proper hurdler which was extremely encouraging. I still maintain he is a very, very smart horse and who knows, he could be our Stan James Champion Hurdle horse for next year, then again, we do have Divin Bere and Buveur D’air for that already!

(interesting he mentioned Divin Bere over any others there?)

William Henry could also be of interest? He isn't in the betting so far. Although I doubt you'd get quotes of 100/1 you'd think he could get introduced in at around 40's. There was a lot of hype about the horse following his very impressive bumper performances but injury forced him off the track for 600+ days. Quietly fancied for the Neptune before injury, he bolted up at the April meeting (albeit an easy looking race) his form also includes a 2nd behind Albert Bartlett 3rd Wholestone and Aintree festival winner Pingshou when coming back from that injury.

Purely EW long shots of course, as we all know Buveur D'Air wins and they have a mountain to climb to trouble him...

Whilst on the subject of horses who were talked up by Henderson last year, in the last of his blog posts Henderson went through a list of questions including:

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT?
There are plenty of those; it’s not all plain sailing as many might think. It was a massive disappointment that we couldn’t run DAPHNE DU CLOS in the Champion Bumper because of an injury – I really thought she’d be up to winning that!
Obviously it was also very disappointing that we didn’t get to see Sprinter race again.

Fayonagh was a very impressive winner and backed it up at Punchestown meaning she could be anything but I thought it was interesting he was so disappointed DdC didn't run suggesting he thinks she could have served it up to the winner? It doesn't always pay to follow the vibe from Henderson's yard (see both Jenkins and Charli Parcs!) but if you believe him then she's one to consider for the novice races next year, with the mares novice most likely. The fact he was surprisingly willing to run her (before injury) in the bumper at the festival against the boys is another indication to how highly regarded she is?