Since the handicap races are starting to get seperated may as well start the Ultima thread.
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2017 Ultima Handicap
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After an initial glance I will be looking at the following to start
Mall Dini - bit of an obvious one but if he was lucky enough to get in below 145 then he should be of interest. Course form and Novices have a good record here.
Belami Des Pictons - might be high enough in the weights off 148 but I think last years winner was off something similar. Again a Novice which is the angle I like in this race. Venetia has a habit of picking up a handicap at the festival and although this one has been winning on softer ground, she has stated that he should handle good ground too. Also, other significant progeny have won on genuine good ground.
Singlefarmpayment - has multiple entries but if he does take in a handicap I think it will be this one. Has course form over this trip and is again a Novice. Looks like he is still on an upwards curve and may have been fortunate to be brought down in his last run as his mark will remain unchanged. Should get a nice racing weight off 142.
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Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostSinglefarmpayment - has multiple entries but if he does take in a handicap I think it will be this one. Has course form over this trip and is again a Novice. Looks like he is still on an upwards curve and may have been fortunate to be brought down in his last run as his mark will remain unchanged. Should get a nice racing weight off 142.
To be honest, I'll be backing him wherever he turns up but I'd hope for bigger than 12/1.
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostI think it will be a handicap for Singlefarmpayment but wouldn't be surprised if it was the Kim Muir. He hasn't been missed in the market for either race though. I backed him in his last race when he was brought down and he was still traveling as well as Royal Vacation, when many of the field were just starting to get pushed along.
To be honest, I'll be backing him wherever he turns up but I'd hope for bigger than 12/1.
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Well spotted JM. I can only get 10/1 Nrnb - I'd like to think he'd be bigger than that the night before, especially as he isn't from a high profile stable.
What do you make of Southfield Royals for the Kim Muir? He was favourite when finishing 4th in last season's 4 miler, after tiring up the hill. He's got a mark of 141 and has only raced once this season when running down the field in a big handicap in January. His mark looks very lenient and connections managed to book Nina for the ride last season - I wonder if they could get another high profile amateur for this race.
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostWell spotted JM. I can only get 10/1 Nrnb - I'd like to think he'd be bigger than that the night before, especially as he isn't from a high profile stable.
What do you make of Southfield Royals for the Kim Muir? He was favourite when finishing 4th in last season's 4 miler, after tiring up the hill. He's got a mark of 141 and has only raced once this season when running down the field in a big handicap in January. His mark looks very lenient and connections managed to book Nina for the ride last season - I wonder if they could get another high profile amateur for this race.
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Originally posted by jonthehammer View PostHad a message from a good mate who has quite a few contacts and he has been told by the girl who rides out singlefarmpayment that this is the target and the stable is pretty confident.
We're at a stage with AP punting where all the value has gone, every bookie will push out prices on the day and include a multitude of special incentives such as 5/6 places, bonus for winning by certain distance etc, the only advantage us punters can gain right now is by betting to known target, e.g Singlefarmpayment is 10/1 with NRNB or 14/1 without.
I use the Minella Rocco example once again, last years 4 miler he was general 5/1 fav two weeks from the race with NRNB, 3 places 1/5 odds, the market was formed and he could be backed at 10/1, 4 places 1/4 odds.
The lesson here is that patience can pay, unless you have known target info...
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Hoorah! I'd backed Singlefarmpayment in the 4m, Kim Muir and Ultima but my biggest stake is in the Ultima - where I have 14/1 NRNB with PP.
I guess there is a small angle if you fancy something and Bet365 are at a price you're happy with as they've been not only NRNB but also BOG for some weeks now, which helps a bit with potential drifters at SP, if not necessarily horses that drift a couple of days before but then get backed in again on the day (i.e. you wouldn't have got the very best 10/1 about Minella Rocco but you would have got the 8/1 SP).
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He may not have to face Mall Dini if this article is accurate...
The iconic image of the three of them jumping the last almost at exactly the same time will ever linger in the recollections of racing fans in Ireland.
"Mall Dini is a maiden over fences but likely to go to the Kim Muir, with no indication as to what lucky amateur will ride, Reynolds and Kelly having spoken about the best option yesterday."
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