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Who do we back for the festival before weekend Trials weekend ?

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  • Who do we back for the festival before weekend Trials weekend ?

    This weekend will see the final prep runs for many of the festivals big guns, but which horses currently represent value, will shorten after the weekend and should be backed now ?

    Couple I like:

    Defi De Seuil - Triumph
    This horse has what it takes to go to the very top, the nagging doubt is that after several smooth victories he jumped out to his left at Chepstow on the run in, whether that was the deeper ground or maybe a muscle issue, who knows, but giving a horse his fifth outing of the campaign before March is almost unheard of these days and Hobbs should be applauded for getting so much experience into his charge.
    He screams class and has such a high cruising speed, he's won his races on the bridle this season and will no doubt have to work harder this week.

    6/1 now, I expect him to win well and be no bigger than 4/1 after Sat




    Ballyoptic - Stayers
    Unusually for a NTD horse this one has never visited the hallowed turf at the foot of Cleeve Hill so he has to prove he copes with the undulations of Cheltenham though his form at Chepstow gives some comfort he'll be OK.
    Took a heavy fall at Wetherby and may have struggled for confidence when beaten by UNWIMH at Newbury as he didn't appear to attach the obstacles that day, the winner was impressive that day but Ballyoptic was giving the same opponent a much harder time in the Long Walk hurdle before falling at the final flight, the fog made life difficult for us that day but it's not impossible to think the pair would have had a good battle to the line.
    Never easy being confident about a horse who has hit the deck twice in his last three outings but if his jumping holds he can be a player, he may not neat the fav this weekend but he could easily go close and that would be enough to see his price shaved.

    14/1 now, I'll punt that he'll be 10/1 best after Sat



    Others ???

  • #2
    At bigger prices, I've backed 3 more yesterday:

    Mainly because I have big holes in my antrpost book for the Neptune and Albert Bartlett....

    1 - William Henry - Neptune - 1pt @ 33/1
    Favourite for the Neptune trial at the weekend (against horses that may want further), but price will tumble with a good run.

    2- Give Me A Copper - AB - 1pt @ 16/1
    Expensive purchase for the Potts', but just one run over hurdles. One I expect to shorten after the weekend

    3 - Wholestone - AB - 1pt @ 16/1
    Not the most glamorous of horses, but has good form and is (IMO) underrated. AB isn't always won by the classiest horse and with DD being so short, I'm happy to take him on in order to find value.

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    • #3
      Great shout on William Henry.

      I am avoiding the McManus juveniles until NRNB because of Supreme risk.

      Have Ballyoptic covered already and just hoping for a good run.

      UDS will shorten if he wins ? Course form going into the fez of 121 in grade 1s (assuming he wins) wont go unnoticed.

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      • #4
        PS. I would add Ballyoptic also, but he is already one of my main antepost punts (since April!)...

        (Although I may be tempted to top up if he wins at the weekend!)

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        • #5
          Cant have Ballyoptic myself... failed twice to beat UNWIMH.. twice hit the deck.. no real great form to his name. Add the course and distance wins for UNWIMH and id be surprised if he doesnt win tomorrow. Ballyoptic may well run a nice race and shorten a tad as mentioned - but would you be wanting 10s or even 14s for him to reverse the form for the 4th time come the fes?
          Last edited by DeeBee; 27 January 2017, 12:48 PM.

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          • #6
            unoriginal i know but a double (or even a treble with douvan) for VVM and Faugheen is surely worth getting on now. If both win at the weekend i expect Faugheen will be 4/5 and VVM could be into evens, possibly odds on for the mares. - you can get 6.88 as double now or 9.63 as a treble with douvan

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            • #7
              Very good idea for a thread. I agree with DDS for the Triumph but that is because I think Charli Parcs for the Supreme is also a fantastic bet now...

              The double is 77/1 (CP Supreme - DDS Triumph) and if they both run tomorrow, then I think they'd get split up at the festival. I expect CP to win tomorrow, and win well... but DDS is already (Although I wasn't bowled over myself) a very strong horse in terms of experience and form achieved to be able to win a Triumph. He looks like he'll want further in time, whereas Charli Parcs might become an absolute monster over 2m.

              I am really excited and have convinced myself that the above will happen....

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              • #8
                I want to get stuck into vvm before tomorrow for the mares hurdle
                A little concerned that limini is so short and if she ran then vvm could be routed elsewhere
                Guess that's the gamble

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                • #9
                  Ricci doesn't often run two in the same race. I know he DOES, but it is rare we see the horrible green cap.

                  I did say this a while ago, but the natural progression for Limini, is the Mares hurdle (after winning the mares novice last year)... she was found out by the boys and will very likely stick to her own grade. As a previous festival winner, and no other race to go for, you can certainly see Ruby on board?

                  VVM has won over 3m and even though the signs are (With running at Donc tomorrow) that she'll defend "her crown"... I think if Limini has a "favourites chance" (and they'll be able to guess how she would be compared to AJ?!) then VVM could take her chance in the stayers.

                  With Ruby picking Clondaw Warrior, but Shaneshill winning (who Ruby has overlooked the last twice) then you can easily argue they have NO SOLID Stayers candidate.... VVM would certainly be more credible (in the market) than either of those two?


                  I'd hold off Liam

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                  • #10
                    It is a fair point kev
                    Does anyone know if Limini has a prep run planned ?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Liammet View Post
                      It is a fair point kev
                      Does anyone know if Limini has a prep run planned ?
                      From memory I think he said they MIGHT but he wouldn;t mind going straight there. It would be a negative...but if he can "do a Quevega" then it frees VVM up for anything and everything else....

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                      • #12
                        Does anyone know if a bookmaker will give you a price for your horse to win today and win at the festival ?
                        I have done this yesterday with Faugheen to win the Irish and English champion Hurdles with PP

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