2017 Mares Novice Hurdle
Had a quick look and couldn't see a thread for this race. Just taking Bet365 prices as copied and pasted, these are the market leaders.
Airlie Beach 7/2
La Bague Au Roi 5
Lets Dance 6
Augusta Kate 5
Camelia de Cotte 6
6/7 are trained by Willie Mullins so trying to find the rubys ride (likely winner).
Asthuria - seems a stayer, could end up here, could go Mares hurdle.
Redhotfillypeppers - Sticking to bumpers, one for next year over hurdles, with the owner insisting on riding might be one to avoid anyway!
Camelia De Cotte - Impressive on debut, Paddy recently cut her shorter than Lets Dance for same owner so possibly the one for Ricci.
Augusta Kate - Very impressive before falling vs Death Duty, Looks a stayer but also not short on speed, Could take on the geldings tho, neptune/bartlett? Celebrity owners and Wylie bred her so could want her in the easiest race to win (This one)
Lets Dance - Impressive LTO, Ricci mentioned in his recent betbright blog he wouldn't mind taking on the geldings, suggesting Camelia De Cotte his preferred runner?
La Bague Au Roi - Looks good over hurdles, not short on speed, certain to run in this race.
Airlie Beach - Very impressive when beating the geldings, Supreme racing tweeted they will taking in the Deliotte next, possible Supreme/Neptune horse? or will they stick to this race?
What do we think? which horse turns up in this race?
I think Airlie beach is probably the horse that will turn up. On Skybet specials you can get Augusta Kate 3/1 for this NRNB and I think that's a solid bet. Anyone else agree?
This is a nightmare race for antepost purposes imo, and probably the toughest of the week for me. Clearly Mullins has an embarrassment of riches and I think its best keeping your powder dry until nearer the time and he decides who he is sending. Of course that may already be known, only wish I knew too!
I was very impressed with La Bague Au Roi, but they've said she will be put away until the Festival so doesnt seem any point backing her until the day. Definitely a race Im avoiding in the AP book.
To answer the original question though, if I were forced to have a bet, I think I would risk Camelia de Cotte. No concrete evidence, just a hunch I suppose.
Willie said Lets Dance would get an entry in the Mares as well as Novice race as he thinks she needs a trip. Has Ruby anything else for Neptune ?
I suppose Ruby still has Invitation Only, Saturnas and Augusta Kate all as possible Neptune horses. I've certainly not given up on Invitation Only just yet.
Wylie has Crack Mome (Supreme), Invitation Only (Neptune), Battleford (Bartlett). I know shes not in Wylies colours but would he really want Kate taking in a race he already has a runner in? On the final furlong podcast he said Mares novice is the target for Kate, but obviously since then she has impressed.
I agree Camelia De Cotte looks the likely runner for Ricci
Let's dance is better over further from comments and what we saw
.... but if she went in the Mares race, does than mean Annie, VVM and Limini don't? Makes her participation for that unlikely for me....
Some of this chat is in the mares thread and I've backed camila de cotte at 33s but I'm not sure she will turn up, as let's dance looked better and if any of the non novices turn up, she might not even be Ricci's number one.
I think la bague au Roo is really solid and I think I'll back her each way nearer the time when the market is clearer ... can't see her shortening much? And surely Mullins/Ruby will be even whichever bullet they fire?
Kayf Grace 12/1 looks the obvious e/w value.
Let's Dance put up for the Albert Bartlett by Jonny Ward on this week FF Podcast
The owners of Augusta Kate don't need the money & this is very much a fun project for them.
As such I think Wylie will aim the horse at the easiest target so they can enjoy a festival winner together.
Was impressed with her until she fell & convinced she was coming to give DD a fright.
Think she will be aimed here & will win.