Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

2017 Mares Novice Hurdle

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2017 Mares Novice Hurdle

    Had a quick look and couldn't see a thread for this race. Just taking Bet365 prices as copied and pasted, these are the market leaders.

    Airlie Beach 7/2
    La Bague Au Roi 5
    Lets Dance 6
    Augusta Kate 5
    Camelia de Cotte 6
    Redhotfillypeppers 9
    Asthuria 10

    6/7 are trained by Willie Mullins so trying to find the rubys ride (likely winner).

    Asthuria - seems a stayer, could end up here, could go Mares hurdle.

    Redhotfillypeppers - Sticking to bumpers, one for next year over hurdles, with the owner insisting on riding might be one to avoid anyway!

    Camelia De Cotte - Impressive on debut, Paddy recently cut her shorter than Lets Dance for same owner so possibly the one for Ricci.

    Augusta Kate - Very impressive before falling vs Death Duty, Looks a stayer but also not short on speed, Could take on the geldings tho, neptune/bartlett? Celebrity owners and Wylie bred her so could want her in the easiest race to win (This one)

    Lets Dance - Impressive LTO, Ricci mentioned in his recent betbright blog he wouldn't mind taking on the geldings, suggesting Camelia De Cotte his preferred runner?

    La Bague Au Roi - Looks good over hurdles, not short on speed, certain to run in this race.

    Airlie Beach - Very impressive when beating the geldings, Supreme racing tweeted they will taking in the Deliotte next, possible Supreme/Neptune horse? or will they stick to this race?

    What do we think? which horse turns up in this race?

  • #2
    I think Airlie beach is probably the horse that will turn up. On Skybet specials you can get Augusta Kate 3/1 for this NRNB and I think that's a solid bet. Anyone else agree?

    Comment


    • #3
      This is a nightmare race for antepost purposes imo, and probably the toughest of the week for me. Clearly Mullins has an embarrassment of riches and I think its best keeping your powder dry until nearer the time and he decides who he is sending. Of course that may already be known, only wish I knew too!

      I was very impressed with La Bague Au Roi, but they've said she will be put away until the Festival so doesnt seem any point backing her until the day. Definitely a race Im avoiding in the AP book.

      To answer the original question though, if I were forced to have a bet, I think I would risk Camelia de Cotte. No concrete evidence, just a hunch I suppose.

      Comment


      • #4
        Willie said Lets Dance would get an entry in the Mares as well as Novice race as he thinks she needs a trip. Has Ruby anything else for Neptune ?

        Comment


        • #5
          I suppose Ruby still has Invitation Only, Saturnas and Augusta Kate all as possible Neptune horses. I've certainly not given up on Invitation Only just yet.

          Comment


          • #6
            Wylie has Crack Mome (Supreme), Invitation Only (Neptune), Battleford (Bartlett). I know shes not in Wylies colours but would he really want Kate taking in a race he already has a runner in? On the final furlong podcast he said Mares novice is the target for Kate, but obviously since then she has impressed.

            I agree Camelia De Cotte looks the likely runner for Ricci

            Comment


            • #7
              Let's dance is better over further from comments and what we saw
              .... but if she went in the Mares race, does than mean Annie, VVM and Limini don't? Makes her participation for that unlikely for me....

              Some of this chat is in the mares thread and I've backed camila de cotte at 33s but I'm not sure she will turn up, as let's dance looked better and if any of the non novices turn up, she might not even be Ricci's number one.

              I think la bague au Roo is really solid and I think I'll back her each way nearer the time when the market is clearer ... can't see her shortening much? And surely Mullins/Ruby will be even whichever bullet they fire?

              Comment


              • #8
                Kayf Grace 12/1 looks the obvious e/w value.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Let's Dance put up for the Albert Bartlett by Jonny Ward on this week FF Podcast

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The owners of Augusta Kate don't need the money & this is very much a fun project for them.
                    As such I think Wylie will aim the horse at the easiest target so they can enjoy a festival winner together.
                    Was impressed with her until she fell & convinced she was coming to give DD a fright.
                    Think she will be aimed here & will win.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      In the past Willie has said throughout the season particularly with his novices it's not always about the race or the trip but just when a horse is ready to run / more forward than others i.e don't read too much into it! Despite this I do think there was more to Augusta Kate running against Death Duty at the weekend than just getting a run out.

                      He has such a plethora of mares for this race. Add in the fact his geldings in the Supreme/Neptune/AB are still slightly up in the air and arguably don't look to be top drawer (so far) I think a few of the mares will go for the S/N/AB. Airlie Beach, Augusta Kate and Let's Dance would be the obvious choices for this if needed out of the above and right now i'd expect 2 of those 3 to not line up for this race.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                        Let's Dance put up for the Albert Bartlett by Jonny Ward on this week FF Podcast
                        Willie has never won this one

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                          Let's Dance put up for the Albert Bartlett by Jonny Ward on this week FF Podcast
                          Now he has faced Death Duty with Augusta Kate he'll have a good handle on where his mares stand with the fav

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Brital View Post
                            The owners of Augusta Kate don't need the money & this is very much a fun project for them.
                            As such I think Wylie will aim the horse at the easiest target so they can enjoy a festival winner together.
                            Was impressed with her until she fell & convinced she was coming to give DD a fright.
                            Think she will be aimed here & will win.
                            I don't think any of wh owners need the money, but you are right about the owners, they definitely wouldn't want the public labeling them as working with the bookies like "other" owners and will enter the her into her best chance of a festival win.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ryanh97 View Post
                              I think Airlie beach is probably the horse that will turn up. On Skybet specials you can get Augusta Kate 3/1 for this NRNB and I think that's a solid bet. Anyone else agree?
                              I probably do regarding AK.... if she turns up she'll be the one Ruby rides? 5s available, 3s with the 'peace of mind' .... not one to rush in to but I will mull it over

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X