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2017 Fred Winter

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  • 2017 Fred Winter

    The donn has one


    Mega Fortune

    Mega Fortune put up a really likeable performance to finish third behind Bapaume and Landofhopeandglory in the Grade 2 juveniles’ hurdle race at Leopardstown on St Stephen’s Day. A little keen through the early stages of the race for Davy Russell, Gordon Elliott’s horse came under pressure as they raced around the top of the track to the second last flight, but he kept finding. Both the first and second travelled better than him into the home straight, but there was a lot to like about the game manner in which he stuck to his task, going down by less than two lengths in the end, and beaten just a short head by Landofhopeandglory for second place, the front three clear.

    This trio fought out the finish of the Grade 3 juveniles’ contest on Hatton’s Grace Hurdle weekend at Fairyhouse too three weeks earlier. The placings of the first two were reversed, and Mega Fortune got closer to them on this occasion than he had at Fairyhouse. The stiffer test at Leopardstown helped him, as did the faster pace, but he should do even better when there is even more of a premium on stamina.

    All three probably stepped up on their Fairyhouse runs. The Leopardstown race was run at a good pace and in a good time, 3.7secs faster than the opening maiden and 0.8secs faster than the bumper, in which there are obviously no hurdles.

    This was really just Mega Fortune’s third run over hurdles – he fell at the second flight on his debut – and he has improved for each run. A winner on the flat for Andy Oliver and rated 80, he is shaping up to be significantly better over hurdles. Gordon Elliott has a good record in the juvenile hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival, and it would be surprising if he did not have Cheltenham in mind for Chris Jones’ horse. A rating of 130 means that the Fred Winter Hurdle is a real option – official ratings in the Fred Winter last year went from 142 to 128 and Flaxen Flare was rated 127 when he won it for Elliott in 2013 – but it would not be surprising if Mega Fortune improved sufficiently to be a big player in the Triumph Hurdle. Cheltenham should suit him, the fast pace and the stiff track should play to his strengths.

    26th December 2016

  • #2
    A few shrewd people have now mentioned the horse for this race now...

    It's never been race i've gone in with antepost, much preferring to tackle it on the day, with Paul Nichols being in fine form in this race.
    Anyone had much luck in this race antepost wise?

    Comment


    • #3
      More for the tracker than the ante post book surely. Price can't change until the weights come out so no rush?

      Comment


      • #4
        Weights get so compressed I now ignore them. Nichols angle has been a very good one.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
          Weights get so compressed I now ignore them. Nichols angle has been a very good one.
          Yep, posted it in the Triumph thread but here's Nichols recent record:

          2015:

          1st - Qualando
          2nd - Bouvreuil
          5th - All Yours

          Exacta paid £481.40

          2016: (albeit fortunate with Voix du Reve & Campeador falling at the last)

          1st - Diego du Charmil
          2nd - Romain de Senam

          Exacta paid £141.20

          2014:

          2nd - Katgary
          4th - Keltus

          2013:

          2nd - Caid Du Berlais
          3rd - Ptit Zig

          Comment


          • #6
            Maga Fortune has shown decent form against good animals so ever chance he could be outrated for this, what's the ceiling, 140 ?
            Any better any they will need to go for the Triumph.

            And I think the trends suggest two poor runs before a good third run which restricts the chances of handicapper really clobbering the horse...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
              Maga Fortune has shown decent form against good animals so ever chance he could be outrated for this, what's the ceiling, 140 ?
              Any better any they will need to go for the Triumph.

              And I think the trends suggest two poor runs before a good third run which restricts the chances of handicapper really clobbering the horse...
              From memory I think the only Cheltenham handicaps with ceilings are the Novice Chase (0-140) and the Kim Muir (0-145). The Fred Winter does not have a ceiling from my recollection but does not attract many horses above 140 on the basis they'd be good enough to run in the Triumph rather than carry top weight in this.

              The biggest issue I would have with backing early in this is the 'Irish Handicap Inflation'. Even if Mega Fortune has a mark you consider fair in Ireland, you have no idea how much Phil Smith will add on for UK handicaps. It could be a couple of pounds or it could be closer to ten!

              Comment


              • #8
                Another good run and he's certain to run in the triumph......I hope

                Comment


                • #9
                  Nichols has served me very well with his French recruits hidden from the handicapper and prepared at home ., the best for me was aux petit soins 16-1 and Diego 10-1 ante post, katgary was unlucky no to win his race too. I wonder if he is plotting this one up for a big handicap
                  .Contre Tous
                  Info: 4g Forestier - Orphee De Vonnas Form: 10224-
                  Has come from France with plenty of experience under his belt. He was making a noise in his work so we sent him for a breathing operation and he’ll be ready to run from Christmas onwards. As he’s yet to win over hurdles he should be easier to place, and the form of his latest run at Fontainebleau has worked out, with the horse who finished just in front of him going on to finish third to Footpad in France’s Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle. If he gives his partnership half the fun they had with Le Prezien last season we’ll all be happy.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Great spot that Dazzler....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by dazzler View Post
                      Nichols has served me very well with his French recruits hidden from the handicapper and prepared at home ., the best for me was aux petit soins 16-1 and Diego 10-1 ante post, katgary was unlucky no to win his race too. I wonder if he is plotting this one up for a big handicap
                      .Contre Tous
                      Info: 4g Forestier - Orphee De Vonnas Form: 10224-
                      Has come from France with plenty of experience under his belt. He was making a noise in his work so we sent him for a breathing operation and he’ll be ready to run from Christmas onwards. As he’s yet to win over hurdles he should be easier to place, and the form of his latest run at Fontainebleau has worked out, with the horse who finished just in front of him going on to finish third to Footpad in France’s Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle. If he gives his partnership half the fun they had with Le Prezien last season we’ll all be happy.
                      Now 5 yrs old though... would that not make him ineligible?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Yes it would, he is ineligible unfortunately.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          This race is very unclear at this stage
                          It is very likely that JP will reroute a few top class flat recruits to this as he is heavily over invested in the triumph
                          Housesofparliament and sword fighter perhaps

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            It'll be unclear until the 5 day decs I'd say. Plenty will play their hand late. I'm not sure many would have known about last season's winner at this point last year.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Case to be made for Master Blueyes? His form behind Charli Parcs and LTO against Divin Bere might not look too bad by the time the festival comes around. Been well supported OR popularly tipped up in both those runs. Alan King mentioned this week on ATR that he'll be a much better horse on better ground. Hardly a huge price at 20/1 but seen a case made more than once now (I think timeform have put him up as an ante-post bet) and I think he's interesting?

                              Comment

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