2017 Albert Bartlett Novices

[Kevloaf]

How many horses have come and gone that weren't Denman though ... 33/1 for a horse on fencing debut to win the year afters gold cup is a terrible bet, despite it coming in ... there is easily less than a 1 in 33 chance a horse would line up; let alone win haha.

I know this is all in jest of course and I love the hype, but let's sort this year out first shall we haha

Now, you two will probably know this ... are the Irish usually better than the English in this race,because I can't help feeling wholestone is under rated, especially after west approach's effort behind UNWIMH

[Istabraq]

It's the full house Kevloaf, the 6 numbers, a story for the grandkids....

[Kevloaf]

It's the full house Kevloaf, the 6 numbers, a story for the grandkids....

I'm bitter because that was Barters Hill for me ... another example of it not working out though.

Are we convinced DD is a good thing in this then? I can get on board with that

[Istabraq]

I think he's the best we've seen, always looked a stayer in the making last year and as long as the potato race is where he ends up he's a good pick

[Kevloaf]

I still think Wholestone is under rated at 16's. Beat West Approach 3 times in a row, before West Approach was running well before unseating at the last behind UNWIMH and he's now shorter in the betting?

I would imagine Messie Des Obeaux in the same ownership goes for the Neptune so target looks fairly obvious too.

There is a chance the UK novices are better than the Irish, certainly were in this race last year? I think he's being over looked still.

I might have an each way double on the two mentioned actually.

[JackieMoon33]

I still think Wholestone is under rated at 16's. Beat West Approach 3 times in a row, before West Approach was running well before unseating at the last behind UNWIMH and he's now shorter in the betting?

I would imagine Messie Des Obeaux in the same ownership goes for the Neptune so target looks fairly obvious too.

There is a chance the UK novices are better than the Irish, certainly were in this race last year? I think he's being over looked still.

I might have an each way double on the two mentioned actually.

If you like the Wholestone form then surely the most under rated horse in the market is Peregrine Run. He beat Wholestone and West Approach over 2m 5f at Cheltenham early in the season and has become the forgotten horse in the race as he was put away for the winter afterwards. The trainer has stated his preference for the Albert Bartlett and somehow he is still available at 25/1. It's a classic example of early season form being forgotten and also the small trainer being underestimated.

[Kevloaf]

I agree 100%. That is an excellent few points and I have backed accordingly! I love the angle of a forgotten horse. Recency bias is one of the most interesting things in horse racing I feel!

[Kevloaf]

I backed West Approach at 100/1 in this race last year... why is he turning up again? Shouldn't be allowed

[mayo]

Johnny Ward
@Ui_Maine

Gordon Elliott says Blow By Blow, last year's Champion Bumper winner @punchestownrace, will run in 5 weeks' time approx after minor setback.

[jono]

Great to hear mayo. I had given up on him seeing him this season before this. Let's hope he may be the star to light up the Supreme/Neptune (though he could even go AB over 3 miles, esp if Death Duty ended up in the Neptune)

A worry that he won't be out so close to the festival though? Would be approx 8th Feb so around a month before the festival. I imagine you'd struggle to get another run inbetween that and the festival so likely he'd be going into any of the novice races with just 1 run over hurdles.

[Kevloaf]

25/1 NRNB for BBB with Sky for Supreme

I thought I'd backed him for any race and have at 12s so really pleased with that news too.

Just watched all his bumper wins again, really impressive isn't he!

[Kevloaf]

Albert Bartlett aim for Death Duty

Elliott said: "I would say he is an out-and-out stayer and they did not go fast enough for him. Augusta Kate was upsides when she fell so it is hard to know what would have happened.

"Jack [Kennedy] thought he had her covered and the one thing I do know is that he would have galloped all the way to the line. Our lad is a very good horse."

Paddy Power shortened Death Duty to 9-4 favourite (from 5-2f) for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, and Elliott added: "If Cheltenham was tomorrow, I would say he would run in the Albert Bartlett. He will have a couple of easy weeks now and head straight to Cheltenham."

"He's a proper three-mile chaser. At this stage, of all the good horses I have had, none of them were as good as this fella over hurdles. That does not mean he will go on to do it as a chaser. I would say he is a fair one, though. "

[Kevloaf]

Interested to see Peregrine Run tomorrow after Jackie mentioned it... wants better ground? Looks a good race!

[JackieMoon33]

Interested to see Peregrine Run tomorrow after Jackie mentioned it... wants better ground? Looks a good race!

The trainer comments put me off to be honest for today. He has said all along that he needs good ground and he certainly won't get that tomorrow. He also mentioned that his Cheltenham target could be one of the handicaps if things do not go well tomorrow which is a bit of a shock. On the flip side, if he does win today then he must be above average for sure especially when you back it up with his Cheltenham win.

[Leman14]

The trainer comments put me off to be honest for today. He has said all along that he needs good ground and he certainly won't get that tomorrow. He also mentioned that his Cheltenham target could be one of the handicaps if things do not go well tomorrow which is a bit of a shock. On the flip side, if he does win today then he must be above average for sure especially when you back it up with his Cheltenham win.

I hope not!
I had a dabble on the AB after his Cheltenham win... that would be yet another AP bet lost!

Agree that it's not one that I'll back today, given the conditions.