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2017 Albert Bartlett Novices

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  • #16
    Should be a fantastic battle. I'm in a lovely position (for once) where by I have both horses to win at any race at the festival so I'm happy just to sit back and watch. I guess the perfect outcome would be for Invitation Only to just have a little bit more pace than Death Duty but I get the feeling Elliott thinks DD has plenty of speed himself and is keen to see if he could potentially cut it in the Neptune.

    It's these sort of big clashes early in the season where bookmakers tend to overreact on a result straight after, only for common sense (and shrewdies getting the prices) for the context of the race to be considered.

    Not quite the same and a lot more high profile but the King George last year - Cue Card won and straight after the race both Vautour and Don Cossack's Gold Cup prices were lengthened quite significantly. Bookmakers looked at the result at face value and didn't take into account

    - It was Vautours first ever try at the trip, on a right handed course at Christmas time
    - Don Cossack despite never travelling in the race suddenly got into contention at the end and was in with a great chance before falling.

    I'm hoping something similar may happen again this weekend so fingers at the ready!

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    • #17
      yes agree Jono good points

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      • #18
        I've got both in any race too, just hoping they finish close together... if they do it is going to have a really solid look to it? I see Death Duty is favourite which is a little suprising considering the distance and that they've both had a run?

        You get the feeling they both want to burst the others bubble and I think the bookies will over react IF it isn't a close finish?

        Are we expecting a big market move on one of them? I get the feeling that could be very significant tomorrow (or is that a bit naive?)

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        • #19
          Really impressive from DD again, been impressed every time ive seem him. Seems like he will head here but is it just me who thinks the Neptune would be perfect for him? Seems to have plenty of speed and dont see the need to step him up. He'll have a great chance in either race.

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          • #20
            Just posted this elsewhere but would obviously be better here:

            Elliott said: "He's done it well and we like him a lot. I thought he'd improved a bit from the last day, and Bryan said he was on the bridle more this time.

            "He will go now for the Grade One (Lawlors Hotel) novice hurdle at Naas (January 8). He looks an Albert Bartlett type."
            I think he'd have a great chance in either on what we've seen but a step up (which we haven't yet seen) could bring out more improvement?

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            • #21
              It is certainly possible and even if he is just equally effective over 3 miles he'll take some beating ..... I just think the race is a bit tough for novices and when you've got a horse with plenty of speed for the Neptune, I'd stick to that. i thought the same for Barters hill last year, sometimes it's best to stick to the shorter distance and have the stamina be an asset than up the distance and have the horses stamina be really stretched.

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              • #22
                Another impressive performance by Death Duty and it looks like he'll improve for a step up in distance. 3/1 looks a slight over reaction to me though.

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                • #23
                  cant believe Death Duty wouldnt be aimed at the Neptune after that, I agree with you Duke.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by billymag View Post
                    cant believe Death Duty wouldnt be aimed at the Neptune after that, I agree with you Duke.
                    Would the trainer comments about him being an Albert Bartlett horse not put you off? I'm only on DD "in any race" so doesn't matter so much but for any future multiples etc... I'd lean towards the AB, following the odds aand trainer comments?

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                    • #25
                      Death Duty gallops, stays and quickens at the end, the AB is ideal and he wins it.

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                      • #26
                        Yes even though its not what i would do, seems very likely that AB is the target. Still think he will have a really good chance of winning so not a crazy decision by the owners/trainer, and they could have blow by blow for the neptune as well so there is that too. Wherever DD goes, ill be keeping him on side.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by billymag View Post
                          cant believe Death Duty wouldnt be aimed at the Neptune after that, I agree with you Duke.
                          Although the Neptune distance of 2m 5f is closer to 3m than 2m, it is invariably won by speedy types who subsequently go on to compete over 2m in the future. Looking at the recent winners: Yorkhill, Windsor Park, Faugheen, The New One, and Simonsig, they were mainly speedier types rather than stayers. On good ground at Cheltenham I could see something being a bit too quick for Death Duty personally even though it might be a weaker renewal this year.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                            Although the Neptune distance of 2m 5f is closer to 3m than 2m, it is invariably won by speedy types who subsequently go on to compete over 2m in the future. Looking at the recent winners: Yorkhill, Windsor Park, Faugheen, The New One, and Simonsig, they were mainly speedier types rather than stayers. On good ground at Cheltenham I could see something being a bit too quick for Death Duty personally even though it might be a weaker renewal this year.
                            Agree with all of that. Death Duty likely to be RSA and Gold Cup horse in future so the AB does look the obvious race. As Jackie says, good ground will against him over the shorter trip - just because it will suit speedier horses far more.

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                            • #29
                              Is it wrong that i'm already lining up in my head how much and often i'll be backing Death Duty for the RSA 2018?

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by jono View Post
                                Is it wrong that i'm already lining up in my head how much and often i'll be backing Death Duty for the RSA 2018?
                                I went to Exeter with a mate one year and we saw Denman win his fencing debut, he was straight on the machine checking prices not for that seasons RSA (which he won) but the follwoing years Gold Cup.
                                I think he snapped up some 33s.
                                I stood next to the same mate at Cheltenham the day he won his RSA and he was back on the machine taking 8/1 for the Gold Cup.
                                He did OK out of Denman that mate !

                                So no Jono, it's not wrong in any way to dream....

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