How's the form from the 2016 festival?

[jono]

Yeah it's a huge shame that Annie, Sprinter and Don Cossack aren't/can't lining up to defend their titles this year.

[Kevloaf]

Makes what thistlecrack is attempting even more astonishing doesn't it!

[Morning Glory]

Altior, Douvan and Thistlecrack the A listers who can save the Festival ....

[Kevloaf]

Unowhatimeanharry could probably make a pretty big statement too ... everyone loves a Cheltenham banker year after year?

[Mytentoryours1]

Unowhatimeanharry could probably make a pretty big statement too ... everyone loves a Cheltenham banker year after year?

Anyone worried about Unowhatimeanharry on fast ground? Find it difficult to knock a horse winning all the key trials but took an age to get there in the Albert last season whereas all his runs on soft were achieved effortlessly.

[Old Vic]

In a word MTOY1 - yes. Most vulnerable banker imo.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agreed. I think he's beatable on a quicker surface.

[Kevloaf]

UNWIMH still got the job done on good in the AB and is a much better horse than he was in March last year. Any horse is beatable but harsh to use a good ground C&D win to beat him over the head with! Looks more like you want it beat than have a reason for it on that evidence

Thistlecrack is more vulnerable imo ... if only because fences are less forgiving.

[Faugheen_Machine]

He'll be running against better horses than Fagan and COI etc when running in the world hurdle. Yes, he won on good ground at Cheltenham last season but that doesn't mean he isn't a better horse in soft. Good ground would play to the strengths of Jezki and Shaneshill more than it would UKWIMH and that would be enough for me to take him on at the prices.

I'd still like to have some of the 25/1 vouchers that you have Kev

[Kevloaf]

He'll be running against better horses than Fagan and COI etc when running in the world hurdle. Yes, he won on good ground at Cheltenham last season but that doesn't mean he isn't a better horse in soft. Good ground would play to the strengths of Jezki and Shaneshill more than it would UKWIMH and that would be enough for me to take him on at the prices.

I'd still like to have some of the 25/1 vouchers that you have Kev

Which in fairness are probably why I am more inclined to leap to his defence rather than looking at the current prices.

I would say though, if he raced against Fagan or COI again now I would expect him to beat them out of sight.

[jono]

Is good ground a concern for UNWIMH?

I understand it bringing other horses into play who may not be better stayers than him but i have no worries on the ground. If you were to isolate his form on good ground it would read only 1/4 BUT you have to disregard those 3 other runs as they were before Harry Fry had the horse.

A breakdown of his 8 wins are:

Good - 1
Good-to-Soft - 2
Soft - 4
Heavy - 1

Won over every type of ground. I'm not sure why the horse didn't run after the festival last year and if there was any reason (injury/hard season?) but without running in any of the other festivals he didn't get much chance to run outside of winter ground

[Kevloaf]

This probably needs a bump back up for anyone that has joined us recently that hasn't seen it.

Is the 2016 bumper still as week as it was? Bacardys and Ballyandy recent BIG winners that should have altered the stats. I know pundits and alike have been keen to take them on, but last weekend might have been a shift?

[Morning Glory]

I have a 25/1 betslip fot UKWIMH Id be happy to cash out.










Its for the 4 miler

[BigChaang]

I could exchange it for my Shaneshill gold cup one !.

[jono]

Just updated the 2016 form since first posting in December in the non handicap races.

Tuesday -

The likes of Noble Endeavour (Paddy Power Chase winner) and Tombstone enhancing the Supreme and 4 Miler form once again, along with Native River adding the Welsh National and Denman Chase to his CV and Vieux Lion Rouge adding the Grand National Trial to his. The other one of interest at the time was Southfield Royale - disappointed 12/14 in the SkyBet Handicap chase as 2nd fav but off a long lay off has excuses to bounce back. Petit Mouchoir has also come out as a credible Champion Hurdle challenger since too from the Supreme. Sizing John also gives the Arkle a boost as a Gold Cup challenger.

Wednesday -

Only Shaneshill winning again from the RSA so still doesn't look a great renewal. Champion Bumper has improved with a few more winners (4) coming out of the race. Ballandy winning the Betfair Hurdle and High Bridge winning 3 on the bounce since the most notable.

Thursday -

The JLT looks a little stronger with Bristol de Mai winning impressively 2 runs back and more noteworthy Outlander winning the Lexus and now an outsider for the Gold Cup. Champagne West likewise is in the mix for the Gold Cup and is the only one in the Ryanair to since get a couple of wins on the board.

Friday -

Couple more winners from both the Triumph and Gold Cup. At the time the Albert Bartlett had both Fagan (2nd) and Champers on Ice (3rd) yet to make their seasonal debuts. Fagan disappointed as won't make the festival this year. Champers on Ice won on debut, had arguably 2 slightly disappointing runs since but potentially is very much one to watch out for in wither the 4 miler or Ultima/Kim Muir at the festival


Might go a bit more indepth with this when I do the same next year (if anyone is interested again?) The World Hurdle for example may not look too bad when you first see 7/12 from the race have won. Saphir du Rheu for example has had 6 runs since finishing 653F2 and then winning when then dropped down to a class 2. That win didn't enhance the form of the 2016 World Hurdle yet it's another winner from the race from a quick viewpoint. In the race out of 41 runs since 13 have won (32%) with 5 of those wins by the winner Thistlecrack, without him it would be 8/35 = 23%. Outlander from the JLT us another example. Based purely on whether he won a race or not he's considered the same as Saphir du Rheu in adding a win to his race. However closer inspection shows that win in a grade 1 lexus, which should be considered much higher than SDR's win.

Not sure how i'm going to analysis it for this years/next year yet. If I try and take in grade/class of race? how many runs vs wins? include place form? Open to suggestions too if anyone has any?