2017 Grand Annual

[Yeehaa]

Surely GE will be tempted to run Ball D'Arc with that rating.

Starchitect, Dandridge and Velvet Maker are others on the shortlist.

All over him

Rock The World also on the radar

[Morning Glory]

matt tombs @thespieler 11h11 hours ago

Grand Annual - entry no 45 got a run last year. This year entry no 45 is rated 138 (1lb higher than got a run last year)

[breeze]

Le Prezien beat Three Stars (who beat Ball D'arc off levels) by 14 lengths, albeit in receipt of 6 lbs. Can't believe the weight he's been given and will be a maximum bet for me if turning up here (think Nicholls is 60/40 in favour of running him here judging by various preview night comments)

[mayo]

Welcome breeze - jumping worries me about him but have backed

[breeze]

I agree, certainly not the cleanest jumper. Just seems far and away the class in the field if lining up. Only other one that would interest me is cloudy dream, but i assume he will skip cheltenham for aintree

[ComplyOrDie]

Le Prezien beat Three Stars (who beat Ball D'arc off levels) by 14 lengths, albeit in receipt of 6 lbs. Can't believe the weight he's been given and will be a maximum bet for me if turning up here (think Nicholls is 60/40 in favour of running him here judging by various preview night comments)

I think you have fair points, hope he goes here, looks a solid bet, beat some good opposition this season, 2nd to Charbel who is highly thought of and many on here expect him to place in the Arkle, 2nd to Top Notch, again highly thought of and many expect him to place in the JLT and then also beat L'ami Serge who has since been reverted back to hurdles but is a fair horse himself.

Has been given a lovely weight provided those above him stick around for the race.

[Jonnymac05]

Any views on Dodging Bullets off 151 & 10st 11lbs for this

[Morning Glory]

Any views on Dodging Bullets off 151 & 10st 11lbs for this

From a high of 171 two years ago

At his age he should still be a player and could be plotted - but looking at the last runs it has been well done if this is the case. Anything on wind ops or headgear ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Any views on Dodging Bullets off 151 & 10st 11lbs for this

No trainer has won this race more since the turn of the century than Paul Nicholls, so both Dodging Bullets & Le Prezien look solid bets, not to mention their form looks solid, despite Dodging Bullets being disappointing so far he has run in some hot races, and has dropped down the weights nicely now. He'll be spot on for this I'm sure.

[Jonnymac05]

No trainer has won this race more since the turn of the century than Paul Nicholls, so both Dodging Bullets & Le Prezien look solid bets, not to mention their form looks solid, despite Dodging Bullets being disappointing so far he has run in some hot races, and has dropped down the weights nicely now. He'll be spot on for this I'm sure.

Yeah true. I just don't know if I'm going off his name or if it's just a big decline. Champion Chaser to Grand Annual in less than 3 years. I might be wrong in this but I'm sure I heard Nichols say he just wasn't the same horse.

[Kevloaf]

I've never been able to work Dodging Bullets out. BAcked him in the supreme, flopped. Was rubbish in the Arkle the year after the year Champagne Fever won ... then won the Champion Chase?!

At the start of this season though, Nicholls was pretty adament he needed a step up in trip now because he wasn't that good over 2m. That hasn't worked so coming back down. I'd find it hard to see that as a 'plot' as such.

I just keep flitting between feeling like I would be STUPID not to back a previous Champion Chase winner in the Grand Annual, to thinking that he is the easiest horse to ruule out because he has always been bang average and got very very very lucky.

[Leman14]

I've never been able to work Dodging Bullets out. BAcked him in the supreme, flopped. Was rubbish in the Arkle the year after the year Champagne Fever won ... then won the Champion Chase?!

At the start of this season though, Nicholls was pretty adament he needed a step up in trip now because he wasn't that good over 2m. That hasn't worked so coming back down. I'd find it hard to see that as a 'plot' as such.

I just keep flitting between feeling like I would be STUPID not to back a previous Champion Chase winner in the Grand Annual, to thinking that he is the easiest horse to ruule out because he has always been bang average and got very very very lucky.

Me too Kev.
Always been one that I have avoided backing.....

On the Nicholls lines, I do like Le Prezien for this - won earlier in the season at Cheltenham and although he could still go Arkle, has a decent chance in this.

[Jonnymac05]

I think I will have a small each way bet on DB as a just in case scenario and my only reason I can come up with is the fact he is a Champion Chaser 2 yrs ago. But as I say it will only be a small bet and I will likely have something else in the race too

[Istabraq]

My take on this (and handicaps in general) is that horses run here for a reason, they may have been top table in years gone by but if they retained any of that level of ability they'd be running in the championship races.
I can't think (though I'm sure there are a few) of a horse who went from winning championship races to winning big handicaps years down the line, and this is due to a horses regression being underestimated and a handicapper slow to make allowances for that regression.
Handicaps generally go to unexposed types who haven't yet showed their true ability so when it comes to races like this I prefer to focus on non championship winning horses...

[Jonnymac05]

My take on this (and handicaps in general) is that horses run here for a reason, they may have been top table in years gone by but if they retained any of that level of ability they'd be running in the championship races.
I can't think (though I'm sure there are a few) of a horse who went from winning championship races to winning big handicaps years down the line, and this is due to a horses regression being underestimated and a handicapper slow to make allowances for that regression.
Handicaps generally go to unexposed types who haven't yet showed their true ability so when it comes to races like this I prefer to focus on non championship winning horses...

Very good insight Ista thank you. Havent pulled the trigger yet and glad i didnt after reading your thoughts there. Yes it could very well be a regression. Maybe i will leave it and find soething else like Ball Darc or Le Prezien as was mention on here by a few.