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2017 Grand National

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  • 2017 Grand National

    I couldn't find an existing thread but if I've missed it please delete this and move the post to the original.

    A horse I've been following for a while, Perfect Candidate, made his seasonal bow today at Bangor, and finishing 11th of 13 beaten 50l wouldn't have been the ideal reappearance but I am trying to take positives from the race.

    The race was over a distance short of ideal, he drifted like a barge, 11s half an hour from tapes up to 25s before returning 20s, I wasn't at Bangor so didn't see him in the parade ring but I assume he was big/unfit so is bound to come on for the run.
    But there are two positives I take from the race, he was under pressure a circuit and a half from home and the horse kept responding, 50l from the winner would suggest otherwise but he was never detached from the group and even went past a couple before tiring.
    The other positive is that the 'capper is likely to take pity, upped 6lb for a win at Cheltenham in April (a meeting I always think form can't be taken literally) he went into todays race off 148 giving weight to horses like Cloudy Too (who won a Peter Marsh last season) and Ziga Boy (Great Yorkshire chase winner last season) so was always up against it today.
    A drop to 145 would be reasonable and then it's up to O'Brien to keep the horse ticking over and make sure his mark doesn't rise above 150.

    I am sweet on this horse though he's not quoted for the race in many books, but definitely one to keep an eye on...

  • #2
    Is Minnella Rocco fav yet ?

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    • #3
      Perfect Candidate 50s with Sid James.....

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      • #4
        Many Clouds and Don Poli

        Would you recommend a bet on Perfect Candidate now after that brave 2nd last time out Ista? I think you've covered this else where but 365 are 50s and 5 places which isn't awful this far out.... I think you've made a strong case (somewhere)

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        • #5
          He's been re-assessed at 150 Kevloaf, he wouldn't want to go up anymore as that definitely gets him in and probably carrying around 11st.
          Fergal O'Brien doesn't play games with his horses, he strikes me as an honest trainer who runs his horses to win races and I don't think he can afford for this one to go up any more.
          He may give him a couple of spins over hurdles but his strength is jumping so why turn down the chance of a decent pot of two especially at Cheltenham, a track he loves.
          All I can say is that I'm sure the National is where he's heading and anything that makes the line up has a shot so I wouldn't put anyone off 50/1 now...

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          • #6
            I'm trying to resist, got enough ante-post on for Cheltenham as it is, unlikely to get MUCH shorter though .... (obviously if declared to run he'd be shorter) but maybe 33s on the day? "unfashionable" trainer?

            I'm trying to talk myself out of it

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            • #7
              I've got quite a long list for this race already. Cause of Causes, Perfect Candidate, Gallant Oscar, Gilgamboa and Don Poli are all in the book already.

              Slightly annoyed with myself for not sweeping up the big prices for PC on betfair before his last run at Cheltenham. I'm hoping people forget about him and his price drifts back out on the exchanges over the next couple of months.

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              • #8
                FM - was it you who kept gazumping my betfair order lol

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                • #9
                  I think we've probably been gazumping each other. I left him alone when someone (probably you) had £40 waiting at 90. I need to be getting 100+ at this stage.

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                  • #10
                    I got some 100 and 110 but tried to get 40 @ 90 matched and 10 @ 95 just behind it, but orders like that never get taken at this stage.
                    Took them off yesterday and nabbed some 50/1 with 365, will look to press when there's some liquidity, market (on betfair) will liven up after Welsh National and the Christmas festivals.
                    Fascinated to see what Fergal does with the horse for the next 4 months....

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                    • #11
                      They are the same prices I've got Ista, might have got some 150 too. It's hard to get money matched I was just chipping away with £5 - £10 but struggled to even get them matched.

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                      • #12
                        Fergal O'Brien trying to ruin a perfectly hatched plan.
                        Perfect Candidate set to run in the Cotswold Chase this weekend, unlikely to get anywhere near Thistlecrack but running into a place (which he is capable of) will likely result in a further rise and make his National bid that much harder....

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                        • #13
                          Strange running plans. He's got an entry in the Gold Cup too. National entries must be out in the next week or so.

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                          • #14
                            Gold Cup might be an OK prep for the National, a few have gone down that route.
                            With the race becoming even more of a stamina test you need a fit horse so recent run is crucial and of course weights can't change after they're announced which is a week after Trials Day so it makes no sense why they'd run him on Sat...

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                            • #15
                              A few notable omissions from the initial entry stage. Gilgamboa, Native River and The Druids Nephew are three that I thought would have had entries.

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