Supreme Novices 2017

[Old Vic]

Welcome unexposed.

This race is a puzzle alright. I thought Moon Racer was the answer but concerned by prep and target now. I had Ballyandy as a Neptune horse but most likely winner now imo.

[BigChaang]

Agree with that summary old Vic , I can see half a dozen of these all in a line running up that hill tuesday week.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Sam rides Movewiththetimes, Willie to ride Ballyandy - according to reports last night.

[BigChaang]

Sam rides Movewiththetimes, Willie to ride Ballyandy - according to reports last night.

I can see two of these . half a dozen running to the line , up that hill tuesday week !!!!.

[Zipiter]

Jamie Codd said at a preview last night that Moonracer goes to Champion Hurdle 100%

[Kevloaf]

That news has been coming.

Disappointing from a personal punting perspective! He will NEED to place in the CH to cover my stakes on him No chance of that haha, but you can fully understand why they're doing it.

Melon and Ballyandy 1st and 2nd in the betting. My goodness.

Bunk Off Early is short enough now too isn't he? No juice in 6/1?

River Wylde now Hendo's shortest ?? Anyone like him, or his price? I'll have to put my £20 with Sky somewhere

[jono]

Understandable but not the choice I would have taken I don't think, as much as the lure of the CH i'm sure is strong. He would have had to have been head and shoulders above the Supreme field to show he can take the step into CH class and I just don't see it.

I think Bunk Off Early appealed when his was a considerably bigger price than Melon but i'd agree the price now shows little interest. If as expected Ruby rides Melon with it being an easy choice i'd 100% choose Melon over BOE with such little disparity between the 2 prices and Mullins comment that it would be an easy choice for Ruby to decide. He may have got his novice rides wrong through the season
(Penhill in the Royal Bond, Riven Light in the Future Champions and Saturnas in the Deloitte) but i'd trust his judgement more when it comes down to Cheltenham.

I want to back a Henderson horse purely due to his fantastic each way record over the last few festivals but nothing is standing out really. It looks like River Wylde and Beyond Conceit will both lineup? Sounds like Consul De Thaix is going Coral Cup and Charli Parcs almost certainly confirmed Triumph unless they decide to do a late switch on Defi du Seuil? Just had a look back at Henderson's stable tour in the RP back in November to see what he thought of these horses early on. Obviously a lot can happen in a season (with Jenkins his main hope out) and novices can often surprise in their development but here's what he said. River Wylde was one of his dark horses for the year:

River Wylde - Dark Horse

Always looked like he would want good ground in that he is an exceptional mover. He went to Haydock for his debut and we thought he might win but the biblical proportions of rain turned conditions very soft. He travelled like the best horse, but did not get home. He then went to Warwick and won by a huge margin and ran at Cheltenham last month, but was badly bumper and lost his chance. Now ready to start over hurdles.

Beyond Conceit

Handsome, big gelding who had some decent form as a stayer on the Flat but had a tendon problem. He has a great phsique, the size to be high class and has the temperament to go with it

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just had my second biggest bet of the festival. Neon Wolf for the Supreme at 7/1 Nrnb. This price is plainly wrong and should be no bigger than 3/1.

[jono]

Just had my second biggest bet of the festival. Neon Wolf for the Supreme at 7/1 Nrnb. This price is plainly wrong and should be no bigger than 3/1.

Am I the only one that thinks the Supreme makes more sense?

[Faugheen_Machine]

It makes perfect sense to me. The best ante post bet I've seen in a long time.

[Kevloaf]

It makes perfect sense to me. The best ante post bet I've seen in a long time.

Absolutely. Already been chipping away at Neon Wolf in this race NRNB. Took 33/1 NRNB and backed yesterday again at 7s!

I saw Stopwatch racing said something similar today and on twitter too ... Backing a horse who might end up in a race that you KNOW would go off shorter is just a spectacular way of ante-post punting.

I agree the Supreme makes more sense too.... if the horse is a future staying chaser (which I think Fry has said) ... then the Supreme will play more to his strengths anyway? He absolutely scooted away from Elgin too .... There is no way the fav in the Neptune shouldn't be fav in this race, when his winning has come at 16 and 18f!

[jono]

Am I right in thinking the same owners of Neon Wolf have Fletchers Flyer and Fry was keen to run him in his novice hurdle campaign but the owners were adamant to bypass the festival and preferred to wait for Punchestown. Just hope they don't do the same again.

Yeah you only have to look at the previous winners of both the Supreme and Neptune to see the Supreme generally produces chasers, often staying chasers over the Neptune (hurdlers).

Taking it up in the Supreme looks ideal.

[Kevloaf]

I did see/read somewhere that one trainer had to beg the owners to run the horse at Cheltenham... can't remember the trainer or horse in question

I think the money has come though and Fry will do everything he can to get the horse there won't he? He might say he isn't bothered, but he is an ambitious trainer and he'd be out of his floppy haired mind if he skipped Cheltenham with a single figured novice hurdler.

All academic as its NRNB now but I might start putting NW (Supreme) into some accumulators. at 6 or 7 1 as well, NRNB in this, is threre any chance at all of him not being in the first 3? I hadn't even considered it each way but that is silly.

[BigChaang]

Just had my second biggest bet of the festival. Neon Wolf for the Supreme at 7/1 Nrnb. This price is plainly wrong and should be no bigger than 3/1.

I have just looked on O/C and it's blue across the board for N.Wolf . in supreme . guess he's going there Faugheen.

[BigChaang]

actually , probably more to do with Moon racer speculation ,.