Supreme Novices 2017

[Kevloaf]

I liked that race. I expected Moon Racer to win by a bit further than he did, but I think that is credit to Ballyandy rather than a negative for Moon Racer... Moon Racer has a bit more speed or turn of foot and Ballyandy I can see ending up over the Neptune trip this season. Connections had The New One and if Ballyandy has been beaten (albeit not far) by Moon Racer, it seems a logical step to try it at least on his next outing. If Moon Racer stays over 2m (which is the most likely, as he was nearly entered in the Supreme on hurdles debut) then the Ballyandy camp can take his form over the next couple of runs as a solid guide.

Ballyandy doesn't capture the imagination but I shouldn't hold that against him. He had the best bumper form in the UK last season going in to Cheltenham and had it coming out of Cheltenham too, after (just) beating Battleford (who I was on ) in a photo... I will be surprised if they both end up in the supreme. WillHill have the double at 288/1 ....

[jono]

I think both camps will be pretty happy with that run. Jumped upsides each other at the last and Moon Racers speed won it. I get the impression NTD always had stepping up to 2m4 in mind and this was just a stepping stone where as Moon Racer looks every inch a 2 miler so both can't be too disappointed (I think if the winner was reversed and Ballyandy had pulled clear I think it would have been disappointing for moon racer). Not the best jumping on show and I imagine you'll see a lot slicker jumpers even on their debuts over the next few months but you can't be too picky on their first run and there's no doubting the battling qualities of both (and as shown in both their bumper wins)

Moon Racers owners I'm sure will be delighted he's back and healthy. There's an interview in The Final Flight book this year with the owner and the regard they hold him in is huge - "could not be more confident of him winning this year if I tried...good enough to run in any race at the festival"

[Morning Glory]

Moon Racers target is Supreme

"He's a fragile horse and it was important that we get a race into him as we might have had to wait a long time otherwise for something suitable," said Moon Racer's trainer David Pipe.

"He was fit enough today but there is plenty of improvement to come. We'll probably be looking at some of those novice hurdles at Cheltenham for him next.

"The target at the moment is the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and who knows maybe these two will be first and second in that as well."

[mayo]

Its the fragile bit that puts me off Moon Racer.

[Kevloaf]

Betunfair are 8/1 for Moon Racer. Embarassing.

[Istabraq]

Paul Nichols has Capeland declared at Chepstow on Saturday.
Winner of the New Years Day bumper at Cheltenham he's been off the course since but has been the subject of several good reports over the Summer, whether he's a Supreme horse is another matter but Saturday may give us more of an idea...

[Morning Glory]

Paul Nichols has Capeland declared at Chepstow on Saturday.
Winner of the New Years Day bumper at Cheltenham he's been off the course since but has been the subject of several good reports over the Summer, whether he's a Supreme horse is another matter but Saturday may give us more of an idea...

By Poliglote who seems to be a Sire worth following:


HORSE DAM'S SIRE RPR

Don Poli Sillery 168
Hinterland Diamond Prospect 165
Wonderful Charm Garde Royale 165
Top Notch Pistolet Bleu 162
Spirit Son Zino 160
Far West Cadoudal 152
Lingo Bering 152
Roi Des Francs Sillery 151
Spirit River Epervier Bleu 150
Chatterbox Pistolet Bleu 148

[Kevloaf]

Never ever think to look at the Sire! Some really good horses there, thanks for posting.

[Kevloaf]

The drift before the race should be noted I think for Capeland. He was travelling up looking like the winner and then got scared out of it. Watched it back and the horses head jerks as he looms up and that puts him off a bit... will keep him on side for now.

[Istabraq]

Yep, he was probably short of work which is unusual for Nichols horses but the drift was notable.
No-one ever won a festival race in October so I suspect they used yesterdays race to teach the horse a few things or get him fit

[Kevloaf]

Yep, he was probably short of work which is unusual for Nichols horses but the drift was notable.
No-one ever won a festival race in October so I suspect they used yesterdays race to teach the horse a few things or get him fit

Yeh that is certainly true. Didn't see any comments after the race from Nicholls regarding this... did anyone else catch anything?

[jono]

An update yesterday on Jenkins:

He schooled on Thursday and worked this morning and went very well in both work outs! David Bass rode him and will continue to do so on the track as he’s sponsored by the owners. We have no idea when he will start off and I don’t think we need to make a decision just yet. We’ll wait until we get a drop of rain as that will help us.

First reaction if i'm honest is slight disappointment (having backed Jenkins in this) that David Bass will be riding him. I had assumed Nico de Boinville would be riding him, a jockey I rate quite highly. I have nothing negative or evidence on Bass being a negative for the horses chances but interested to hear people more knowledgable than me on whether that is good/bad or has any effect on if you'd be backing the horse. I can only recall him winning on Darna at the festival a few years back and being the regular rider for Barters Hill.

The good news is it's all blue on oddschecker for him, now down to 16's

[Kevloaf]

Not sure I class as more knowledgable but Bass being on board wouldn't be a negative for me. As you said, he has a festival winner to his name, and although NdB has more, I think he is sitting on a higher calibre of horse so it would be easier for him to do so... SS as the obvious example.

I like a jockey that can set the fractions too, and also one that can win when they aren't last off the bridle and I've seen him do both. He isn't top class, but only 3 jockeys are...

[jono]

True. Thinking it about it more you could argue until Nico got the ride on Coneygree, he was still quite low profile and infact a similar profile. Picked up some decent rides for Henderson and some other trainers before proving he could win at the festival with Whisper in the Coral Cup. He then got his big break on a horse of Coneygree's calibre.

Here's hoping Jenkins does the same for Bass giving him a big win in the Supreme!

[Kevloaf]

Bass will be riding a double anyway, after Jenkins he has Barters Hill to cruise around on before winning the 2018 Gold Cup