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  1. #1

    Swinton Hurdle 12 May 2012

    Any tips or thoughts on this one ...

    Ten year winners/ stats

    2002 Intersky Falcon 5 11-10 Liam Cooper Jonjo O'Neill
    2003 Altay 6 09-11 Padge Whelan Richard Fahey
    2004 Macs Joy 5 10-00 Timmy Murphy Jessica Harrington
    2005 Coat of Honour 5 10-00 Graham Lee Howard Johnson
    2006 Acambo 5 10-04 Andrew Glassonbury Martin Pipe
    2007 Leslingtaylor 5 09-11 Dougie Costello John Quinn
    2008 Blue Bajan 6 10-08 Graham Lee Andrew Turnell
    2009 Joe Jo Star 7 11-00 Brian Hughes Richard Fahey
    2010 Eradicate 6 10-01 David Bass Nicky Henderson
    2011 Eradicate 7 11-05 Jeremiah McGrath Nicky Henderson

  2. #2

  3. #3
    Forced Kin
    Guest
    Alternative Stats

    Winners have been aged five (5), six (3) and seven (2).


    Winners have carried between 9-11 and 11-10 with seven between 9-11 and 10-8.


    Winners have been rated between 125 and 148 with seven between 128 and 141.


    Winners have been priced between 4-1 and 16-1 with four successful at the latter price.


    Two favourites have been successful with one other placed.


    Seven winners finished in the first four on their preceding start.

    Winners had run between four and nine times in the preceding season and up to this race; only one hadn't won during that time.


    No winner had had more than 12 career starts over hurdles.


    Eight winners were novices and one a second season hurdler.


    Nine winners had either won or been placed in a contest rated class 1 or 2.


    Eight winners had started their racing career on the flat, four had ratings around 100.


    All of the winners ran at one of the Festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree, Fairyhouse and Ayr.


    Three of the last six winners contested the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh earlier in the season.

    Summary

    There is usually a fairly simple formula to be employed in finding the winner of this race with ex-Flat horses who are in the formative stages of their hurdling careers boasting an excellent record. Two of the last three winners have been aged seven and three from that age group make plenty of appeal here with Charm School, All The Aces (representing the same connections as Eradicate who has won the last two renewals) and Red Merlin.

    Donald McCain's charge was widely touted for this race last year only not to make the line-up and it would be no great surprise if this had been the plan ever since; he travelled strongly in the Scottish Champion Hurdle only to be outstayed and looks a leading player but a more sporting selection is Nicky Henderson's runner who may possibly prove to be more effective on this ground.

    He was rather disappointing at Aintree but may have needed the outing over a trip that may stretch him and he's on a fair mark of the pick of his early efforts over hurdles

  4. #4
    Forced Kin
    Guest
    Simon Holy also on fav

    The big race at Haydock on Saturday is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, perhaps better known as the Swinton. It's a Grade 3, and an extremely valuable prize. The horse I like the look off - from a trainer in very good form - is RED MERLIN, trained by Donald McCain and the mount of Jason Maguire. He's been in very good form over hurdles, both last season and this, before finishing fourth last time out in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. That was a slightly messy finish; he travelled very strongly and came there with every chance but wasn't beaten far and finished in front of Charm School and Petit Robin who reoppose. Most of his winning form has been on top of the ground but he does have form on soft as well and the course is apparently in very good condition, so I've every hope he'll act. This is a track, after all, that he won the Old Newton Cup on when racing on the flat and Red Merlin has got a touch of class, so off his weight he looks quite attractive here. It is unsurprisingly a wide-open race. Nicky Henderson and his team are represented by Lifestyle, Petit Robin and All The Aces. Lifestyle came good last time when winning at Aintree, beating Conquisto with Dream Esteem in fourth, and after a light winter campaign she's in good form and is one to be wary of. All The Aces is another horse further down the weights who was smart on the flat. He's disappointed on his last two stars but was always a soft ground horse on the level and with those conditions in place he could be set for a big run off a pretty light weight. Others that would have a chance include Arab League, who ran well behind Gibb River at Sandown, while on his best form Ubi Ace, the mount of Tony McCoy, is another to bear in mind. Wide-open, but I'm going to take a chance on Red Merlin for the very much in-form Donald McCain.

  5. #5
    Forced Kin
    Guest
    Red Merlin well flagged up on this thread and in the stats pick from FJ.

    Well done winners.

  6. #6
    Favourite innit.

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